[Machine Choice]

I've looked at this matchup for the better part of the three hours now, and as usual as I went into the handicap I was leaning Ball State because they are a cover machine. But as I got into the numbers and line-ups it quickly became clear to me that the public has finally caught on about Ball State, the New England Patriots of the MAC. The public has siphoned all value out of the side, and now if I was playing a side tonight I would take OHIO +6.5.

But I am not going to take a side, I am taking the total to go OVER 63. After analyzing this game, I have a final score of:

OHIO 36
BALL ST 38

How did I get to that score? Well let's look. Ohio has been god-awful against the pass in road games. They allowed UMASS to pile up 373 passing yards. If you haven't figured it out, UMASS doesn't normally throw the ball. But against Ohio, UMASS victimized the secondary repeatedly like a whore being worked in the mean streets. In another road game, Ohio allowed MIAMI-OH to throw for 311 yards! What do you think Keith Wenning is going to do tonight against that pathetic secondary. I can tell you what he will do, and it will involve Willie Snead and Jamil Smith. And if that wasn't enough, let's look at the rushing attack. Ohio allowed Buffalo to rush for 313, Bowling Green to rush for 197, EMU to rush for 167, and shitty Akron to rush for 158. Tonight we will see Jahwan Edwards run like ape-shit for Ball State.

What about Ball State's defense? Can't stop the run. Pure and simple. They can't stop it. I'm not giving you all the numbers. Look it up. You can expect Blankenship, Boykin and Tettleton to run free for Ohio ALL NIGHT LONG. I predict that Ball State will give up 260 rushing yards tonight. This will even furthermore open up the passing game for Tettleton, who will be pissed off after getting embarassed last week vs BG. He will be locked in, this kid is a warrior (threw for 302 at Miami-OH in a loss, then threw for 255 the next week).

Clear weather tonight and COLD (33 degrees). No key injuries at skill positions.

Wide-open MAC offenses on parade. Get the popcorn, crack the beer, and cash the easy over.

BALL STATE / OHIO over 63

[Machine Choice]

Over is 11-3 in BSU's last 14 home games.

Over is 10-4 in Ohio's last 14 November games (all under Solich)

[stalinjah]

Good text. gl 4 us!

[theangryelf]

Machine you have great insight in your threads and you did very well last week as I had many of the same picks as you. However, since 1990 when Ohio is coming off a home conference loss as an away dog the following week, they have only scored over 28 points....... once. This sample size is 24 games but that is pretty telling to know that the offense is quite lacking the following week.

http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/que...it=S+D+Q+L+%21

It may go over, it may not...but if it does, its because Ball state is going to absolutely work them.

[SportsMozart]

Ball st wins this one by more than TD. Ohio is pathetic, they lost to Miami Ohio, struggled with U Mass... Ball st will teach them a lesson here

[ImmortalKrop]

Ohio's RB, Boykin, is out for the year. Blankenship will carry the load tonight.

[Machine Choice]

I don't see boykin's name on any injury reports, not that it would matter.

[Machine Choice]

Just saw that boykin is out tonight. Shouldn't matter since he is not the featured RB

[zoo youk]

Ohio's RB, Boykin, is out for the year. Blankenship will carry the load tonight.

Blankenship is just as good if not better. he has been carrying the load pretty much all season long anyway.

i like this pick but i really think the Toledo Northern Illinois OVER is much safer, Huskies should drop 40+ points.

[CDMKMP]

Machine you have great insight in your threads and you did very well last week as I had many of the same picks as you. However, since 1990 when Ohio is coming off a home conference loss as an away dog the following week, they have only scored over 28 points....... once. This sample size is 24 games but that is pretty telling to know that the offense is quite lacking the following week.

http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/que...it=S+D+Q+L+%21

It may go over, it may not...but if it does, its because Ball state is going to absolutely work them.

These types of stats are so worthless for any meaningful analysis. Tell me how Ohio fares in months that are prime numbers facing teams with the word "State" in their name in years that are a multiple of four ... then maybe we'll talk.

[theangryelf]

These types of stats are so worthless for any meaningful analysis. Tell me how Ohio fares in months that are prime numbers facing teams with the word "State" in their name in years that are a multiple of four ... then maybe we'll talk.

How can you say that its meaningless to know that Ohio sucks coming off a home conference loss? How can you argue that this is irrelevant. Ohio St and Northwestern are the only much larger schools in a conference out of their league that is in that data.

[Bbfromgpt]

This Ohio team has the capabilities to win this game. This could be one of the public Mac burials.

[CDMKMP]

How can you say that its meaningless to know that Ohio sucks coming off a home conference loss? How can you argue that this is irrelevant. Ohio St and Northwestern are the only much larger schools in a conference out of their league that is in that data.

lol the sample size is 24 games for a randomly particular situation over a 22 year time-span. To make any inferences about the nature of the current team based off that data is ridiculous. Four different head coaches, some awful bottom-of-the-barrel type seasons, hundreds of different players and situations and opponents.

Let me guess, if they don't score more than 28 tonight you'll feel 100% validated in this analysis right?

[illriseupxnhx]

Machine i dig your style man, but i gotta go the other direction here....game stays low to mid 50's, atleast that is how my figures would have it....best of

[THoll702]

This Ball St. team has beat Indiana and South Florida at home. Can't bet against them at home. They are fired up in Muncie, Ind. tonight. Good Luck to all.

[GChild]

Ha another play line moves the other way?

[SparJMU]

Machine you have great insight in your threads and you did very well last week as I had many of the same picks as you. However, since 1990 when Ohio is coming off a home conference loss as an away dog the following week, they have only scored over 28 points....... once. This sample size is 24 games but that is pretty telling to know that the offense is quite lacking the following week.

http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/que...it=S+D+Q+L+%21

It may go over, it may not...but if it does, its because Ball state is going to absolutely work them.

This is completely worthless information. How many of the players on tonight's roster were playing in those 28 games. How many of the coaches carry over? Can you tell me the strength of the defenses of the 24 opponents they were playing. Can you give me injury information. Can you tell me average ypp in those games? Injuries? Turnovers by each team?

The information quoted above is the kind of crap con artist touts like B lang quote to naive rookies how don't know any better. They are literally 100% worthless.

[illriseupxnhx]

This is completely worthless information. How many of the players on tonight's roster were playing in those 28 games. How many of the coaches carry over? Can you tell me the strength of the defenses of the 24 opponents they were playing. Can you give me injury information. Can you tell me average ypp in those games? Injuries? Turnovers by each team?

The information quoted above is the kind of crap con artist touts like B lang quote to naive rookies how don't know any better. They are literally 100% worthless.

you are 100% correct spar...but i kinda wish you didnt set them straight about those bullshit stats....i like it better when less people know what they're doing

[theangryelf]

lol the sample size is 24 games for a randomly particular situation over a 22 year time-span. To make any inferences about the nature of the current team based off that data is ridiculous. Four different head coaches, some awful bottom-of-the-barrel type seasons, hundreds of different players and situations and opponents.

Let me guess, if they don't score more than 28 tonight you'll feel 100% validated in this analysis right?

If you read my first post i did mention it was a small sample size. and no i would not feel "validated." just something to consider guy

[rumnblack]

I'm on the over, good luck.

[shookid]

why has this dropped to 60.5?

[TheChampIsHere09]

Sample sizes, whatever. The top MAC offenses go at it tonight. Ohio is going to be fired up after their atrocious ST performance last week. I expect Tettleton and Blankenship to have big nights. Meanwhile, Ball St should have no problem against a D that couldnt stop UMass earlier this year. 35-31 Ball St.

[surffreak]

I have the over as well, as well as toledo +10.5

[Machine Choice]

why has this dropped to 60.5?

I have no idea nor do I give a shit. The game will be played on a field in Muncie, IN....not in a Sportsbook.

[shookid]

I have no idea nor do I give a shit. The game will be played on a field in Muncie, IN....not in a Sportsbook.

fu$k yeah!

[zoo youk]

slow start but lighting the scoreboard up now. bout 21 points scored in last 5 min

[Machine Choice]

.....taking the podium....

"First of all, let me open by saying how proud I am of my teams tonight...both of them. They really fought through the adversity when it seemed the over could be in doubt after Wenning went down. But they didn't get down on themselves, and I'm really impressed how they came together and wheeled off some huge runs, missed tackles, long kickoff returns, wide-open slants, and all-around sloppy defense.

Let me tip my hat especially to Blankenship. I predicted that he and his team would amass over 200 rushing yards and they actually exceeded that total. Just a real good effort by both teams to churn and burn. Very Proud.

I'll take questions now, if there are any."

Okay, Good night.

[HoulihansTX]

[paco]

[theangryelf]

Machine you have great insight in your threads and you did very well last week as I had many of the same picks as you. However, since 1990 when Ohio is coming off a home conference loss as an away dog the following week, they have only scored over 28 points....... once. This sample size is 24 games but that is pretty telling to know that the offense is quite lacking the following week.

http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/que...it=S+D+Q+L+%21

It may go over, it may not...but if it does, its because Ball state is going to absolutely work them.

However, since 1990 when Ohio is coming off a home conference loss as an away dog the following week, they have only scored over 28 points....... once..... check, right again. Ohio once again was held to under 28. But wait, theres more....

It may go over, it may not...but if it does, its because Ball state is going to absolutely work them. OMGZ right again... there was 21 points scored in a matter of like 10 plays I think. it was right around 5 minutes went by during that time span. Had that not happened, this game had a solid shot at going under.

Machine I respect you and great job tonight. It's just hard to pass up data that telling when people are telling me how irrelevant I am. Had no play on total, my money was on Ball tonight in a 4 team parlay for a grand in which I hit. Have a good night

[killersweet]

Great Call Machine.

[Machine Choice]

However, since 1990 when Ohio is coming off a home conference loss as an away dog the following week, they have only scored over 28 points....... once..... check, right again. Ohio once again was held to under 28. But wait, theres more....

It may go over, it may not...but if it does, its because Ball state is going to absolutely work them. OMGZ right again... there was 21 points scored in a matter of like 10 plays I think. it was right around 5 minutes went by during that time span. Had that not happened, this game had a solid shot at going under.

Machine I respect you and great job tonight. It's just hard to pass up data that telling when people are telling me how irrelevant I am. Had no play on total, my money was on Ball tonight in a 4 team parlay for a grand in which I hit. Have a good night

Except you forgot the part where the refs jobbed Ohio out of a field goal attempt at the end of the 1H. It would have been a chip shot FG and Ohio would have 30 points (thus exceeding 28).

Regardless, keep using stats from the 1990s if that is what you choose to do. Everyone has to chart their own course.

[salvador_7764]

Sir did you cAp tomorrow game yet.

[SparJMU]

However, since 1990 when Ohio is coming off a home conference loss as an away dog the following week, they have only scored over 28 points....... once..... check, right again. Ohio once again was held to under 28. But wait, theres more....

It may go over, it may not...but if it does, its because Ball state is going to absolutely work them. OMGZ right again... there was 21 points scored in a matter of like 10 plays I think. it was right around 5 minutes went by during that time span. Had that not happened, this game had a solid shot at going under.

Machine I respect you and great job tonight. It's just hard to pass up data that telling when people are telling me how irrelevant I am. Had no play on total, my money was on Ball tonight in a 4 team parlay for a grand in which I hit. Have a good night

Ohio averages 31 points per game. Last night they scored 27. You really need to listen to the people telling you that your information is irrelevant. You are making everyone in this thread dumber everytime they read your words.

[cankid]

Nice going congrats!!