Expect Wyoming to be unable to cover the big spread this Saturday when the Cowboys host San Diego State.
San Diego St. followed up its upset win against Air Force with a humbling loss against Div I-AA Cal-Poly last Saturday, and while that loss might seem demoralizing, it isn’t as bad as one might think.
Under former University of Arizona assistant Rich Ellerson, Cal-Poly has won 31 of its past 42 games and, for those unaware, it was Ellerson who orchestrated Arizona's 'Desert Swarm' defense in the late 1990’s. The Mustangs had been ranked fourth in the country before a loss to South Dakota St. the week before.
The Cowboys are coming off a big loss at TCU and yet are still favored by a huge amount. This is a sandwich game for Wyoming as the loss against the Aztecs is followed up by a game at BYU this coming Thursday, a game it is already preparing for. What they might not be prepared for is a different look from San Diego St. as head coach Chuck Long will be opening up the offense this week as that was the main downfall against the Mustangs last Saturday.
The Cowboys still have the top-ranked passing defense in the country, but the Aztecs are going to utilize a durable running game and a revamped passing game to mix things up. San Diego St. led at halftime against Cal-Poly thanks to two touchdown passes, but it completely abandoned the passing game in the second half, throwing the ball only four times before its final possession. Long took the blame and said that quarterback Kevin Craft will be more involved in the offense after a successful game last week.
Running back Atiyyah Henderson has been a major asset since entering the lineup as he has rushed for 571 yards on 109 carries despite getting just one carrying during the Aztecs' first two games. Junior Lynell Hamilton is back from last month's knee surgery so he will provide a solid one-two punch in the backfield. Wyoming is 38th in rushing defense but after facing three bad rushing offenses in three straight games, the Cowboys were torched for 188 yards on the ground against TCU last week.
Before the New Mexico game, Wyoming was ranked 55th in total offense at 356.4 ypg and averaged 23.6 ppg. After the TCU game, it fell to 80th in total offense at 320.6 ypg and has scored only 21.1 ppg. Asking a team to cover two touchdowns when it is averaging just over three per game is a lot to ask. Wyoming is sixth nationally in total defense but it has faced a lot of weak offenses and even though the Aztecs fall into that category, the ranking is somewhat skewed. Five of the nine teams the Cowboys have played are ranked 94th or worse in total offense.
The rushing game of Wyoming is not nearly as good and that sets up a great situation for the Aztecs. Play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that average between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc against a poor rushing team averaging between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc in conference games. This situation is 50-17 ATS (74.6 percent) since 1992. The average line in those games was 14.2 while the average point differential was -8.4 ppg.
Expect a closer game than what the line indicates.
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Matt Fargo: Play Aztecs +15 at Cowboys
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