[MasterP10]

Any thought's on game between Nebraska and Michigan State?

[mrsolodolo21]

Early lean: Nebraska +1.5...need to take a little bit of a closer look though. Here is my preliminary write-up:

I had this game circled at the beginning of the season, and based off of the recent performances of Nebraska and Michigan State, I’m not backing off my lean of the Huskers in this one. Michigan State is one of the few teams in the Big Ten that Nebraska’s defense should be able to contain for four quarters. The I-formation, power running game of the Spartans will be very similar to the Wisconsin rushing attack that Nebraska limited to 1.4 yards per carry earlier in the year. Look for Nebraska to load up against the run, and play their patented matchup-zone (that absolutely smothered Kirk Cousins and MSU last season) in passing situations. In order for both offenses to sustain drives, they will probably need to go to the air, and I give a slight edge to the Nebraska offense in that department. However, Martinez has had some struggles on the road. He will definitely need to take care of the ball against that tough Michigan State pass rush. Look for offensive coordinator Tim Beck to call some quick, intermediate throws and screens early in the game to help Martinez establish some confidence and rhythm.

Even though the revenge factor plays in for Michigan State, Nebraska should be chomping at the bit also, as they now control their own destiny in the Big Ten legends division.

[mdfizzle]

Under. These teams won't be able to score.

[mrsolodolo21]

Under. These teams won't be able to score.

Totals haven't been released yet.?

[mdfizzle]

Unless they plan on setting it at 21 points, I wouldn't be concerned.

[LT Profits]

Totals haven't been released yet.?

44.5. I prefer Nebraska ML

[HoulihansTX]

Michigan St will break out offensively

[mrsolodolo21]

Michigan St will break out offensively

Just a hunch, or do you know something I don't know?

[HoulihansTX]

Neb defense is below average in a offensively challenged conference.

Plus Michigan St breaking out offensively is a relative statement, since for them that would be 2 TD's, and 2FG's

[LT Profits]

Neb defense is below average in a offensively challenged conference.

Plus Michigan St breaking out offensively is a relative statement, since for them that would be 2 TD's, and 2FG's

I was going to say you have to HAVE an offense in order to bust out.

[mrsolodolo21]

Neb defense is below average in a offensively challenged conference.

Plus Michigan St breaking out offensively is a relative statement, since for them that would be 2 TD's, and 2FG's

I understand Nebraska's defense has underachieved (to put it nicely) this year, but they have problems against spread running teams with speed like Ohio State and UCLA. Michigan State does not run the spread, and they do not have playmakers with speed. This should play into Nebraska's hand. As I noted earlier, you have to look at similar opponents and playing styles when analyzing teams. Michigan State will try the ground and pound offense similar to what Wisconsin tried and failed to do against Nebraska (1.4 yards per carry). MSU has had problems airing it out all year, and they will go against a Nebraska pass defense that ranks #1 in the nation in opponent completion percentage. If the Huskers stop Bell and the rushing attack on 1st and 2nd down, the Spartans will have trouble trying to convert 3rd and longs in the intermediate passing game.

[Brutus84]

I probably wont bet the game but I would take Nebraska if I had to take one. GL

[LT Profits]

Nebraska is now favored.

[BeantownBlue]

Total at 44.5, I would definitely go with the UNDER.

[Capnitrite]

Yes, Yes, and YES

[nvrlose37]

I forget the genius who brought this stat to the board last week, but it is in effect for this game. Teams ranked 20-25 on the road as small dogs have lost 85% of the time or so. Occurred last week with Mich@Neb. I'm siding MSU purely based on that.

They also played fantastic against Wisky so there's that to hang your hat off of.

[mrsolodolo21]

I forget the genius who brought this stat to the board last week, but it is in effect for this game. Teams ranked 20-25 on the road as small dogs have lost 85% of the time or so. Occurred last week with Mich@Neb. I'm siding MSU purely based on that.

They also played fantastic against Wisky so there's that to hang your hat off of.

So, not only are you blindly following a trend, but the example you use to try and give support to that trend props up the very team you are betting against.

What if I told you Big Ten road underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the past two weeks (which they are). Now, two of those covers include Michigan State, who has been playing better the past two weeks. Should I put more weight in the trend that road dogs in general have been good (and side with Nebraska), or that Michigan State covered against Michigan and Wisconsin (and side with MSU)?

The point is, you can slice these games up several different ways with trends, stats, etc. Don't follow one trend blindly, instead consider it into the overall context of the matchup. You still have to look at playing styles, strengths, weaknesses, situational spots, injuries, and more.

I have a hard time believing that Nebraska will lose this game because they have a 22 next to their name. So I take it you are saying if Nebraska was rated 19th or out of the top 25, this would be a no play for you?

Also, MSU did not play fantastic at Wisconsin. They had three points until the final minute of the game. They injured Wisconsin's starting QB, then ate up their struggling backup. It was hardly a dominating performance.

[BeantownBlue]

I really like your line of thinking. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this thread.

I am very much inclined to bet on the under side for this game.
As you mentioned, I am expecting MSU will struggle to score here.
Not to mention their struggle last year @Neb, Maxwell isn't (at least yet) the kind of QB like Cousins.
OTOH, MSU's D is very solid, especially on the LB's. (Bullough is the best middle LB in the BigTen.)
I bet they will neutralize Nebraska's running game, both on Martinez and Abdullah.

In addition, MSU is based on the traditional running game and they will try to win this game in their way,
killing the clock and wearing down Nebraska's upfront.

I believe this is a great game to bet on the under side.

So, not only are you blindly following a trend, but the example you use to try and give support to that trend props up the very team you are betting against.

What if I told you Big Ten road underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the past two weeks (which they are). Now, two of those covers include Michigan State, who has been playing better the past two weeks. Should I put more weight in the trend that road dogs in general have been good (and side with Nebraska), or that Michigan State covered against Michigan and Wisconsin (and side with MSU)?

The point is, you can slice these games up several different ways with trends, stats, etc. Don't follow one trend blindly, instead consider it into the overall context of the matchup. You still have to look at playing styles, strengths, weaknesses, situational spots, injuries, and more.

I have a hard time believing that Nebraska will lose this game because they have a 22 next to their name. So I take it you are saying if Nebraska was rated 19th or out of the top 25, this would be a no play for you?

Also, MSU did not play fantastic at Wisconsin. They had three points until the final minute of the game. They injured Wisconsin's starting QB, then ate up their struggling backup. It was hardly a dominating performance.

[LT Profits]

I forget the genius who brought this stat to the board last week, but it is in effect for this game. Teams ranked 20-25 on the road as small dogs have lost 85% of the time or so. Occurred last week with Mich@Neb. I'm siding MSU purely based on that.

They also played fantastic against Wisky so there's that to hang your hat off of.

Besides this stat being meaningless, it does not apply here.

[mrsolodolo21]

I forget the genius who brought this stat to the board last week, but it is in effect for this game. Teams ranked 20-25 on the road as small dogs have lost 85% of the time or so. Occurred last week with Mich@Neb. I'm siding MSU purely based on that.

They also played fantastic against Wisky so there's that to hang your hat off of.

I also heard a trend that when the line crosses 0 and the other team is the favorite, these teams cover at around 70-75%. Maybe you want to follow that one now that Nebraska is favored.

[mrsolodolo21]

I really like your line of thinking. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this thread.

I believe this is a great game to bet on the under side.

Thx...I like to get my thoughts out on the forum to see if I missed anything or if there are any flaws in my reasoning.