1. 10-27-12 01:23 PM #36
    Bigbill365
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    and on top of that michigan has all the momentum from beating michigan state a team they havent beat in 4 years
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  2. 10-27-12 09:56 PM #37
    daneblazer
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    Spot on
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  3. 10-27-12 10:01 PM #38
    Mr. Doughnut
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    I liked Nebraska tonight too. Came close to putting them in my Bama/ND/TAMU parlay...wish I hadn't chickened out
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  4. 10-27-12 10:09 PM #39
    Rod Tidwell
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    Quote Originally Posted by falcon44 View Post
    When A team is ranked 20-25 and is playing on the road against a unranked team and the unranked team is favored the team that is unranked has a 89% cover rate ATS....

    Mich VS Neb.

    Mich is ranked 22 and is a dog on the road to unranked NEB. Load on NEB.

    GL

    Thanks for this gem!!!
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  5. 10-27-12 10:20 PM #40
    Wesley
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    nice hit
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  6. 10-27-12 10:37 PM #41
    GunShard
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    Nice trend. Going to keep my eye on this trend on future seasons as well.
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  7. 10-27-12 10:43 PM #42
    MeatWad
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeatWad View Post
    Nice! Definitely like Neb here for a variety of reasons. GL with you angle, let's cash it tonight!
    Great hit! Wish I would have saved myself the research and just backed Neb off this angle. Guess there is more than one way to skin a cat. Good job!
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  8. 11-02-12 11:09 AM #43
    daneblazer
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    UCLA this week
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  9. 11-02-12 11:22 AM #44
    hougigo
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    Nebraska in same Situation with Michigan State.... I still like Nebraska at -1.5
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  10. 11-02-12 11:30 AM #45
    MTek
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    Marc Lawrence made his career this way.
    Trends are trends for a reason, I'm leaning Nebraska myself
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  11. 11-02-12 11:43 AM #46
    tubguy
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    So what's the pick ladies... NEB, or MSU...
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  12. 11-02-12 11:51 AM #47
    kfranz31
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    thanks for the info...good luck
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  13. 11-02-12 12:40 PM #48
    esulima
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    thats what i was thinking ucla
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  14. 11-02-12 12:51 PM #49
    gojetsgomoxies
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    like the thread. thank you OP!!

    how about simplifing to HFA is huge when similarly teams ranked 20 to 40 meet?

    wherexwas that OreST vs BYU game? from memory i would have thought it was losing play for this system
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  15. 11-02-12 01:21 PM #50
    The HOFF
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    If you are using opening lines than UCLA and Mich State would fit this weekend.
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  16. 11-02-12 01:41 PM #51
    Marigold HD
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    Nebraska wins
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  17. 11-02-12 02:22 PM #52
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by The HOFF View Post
    If you are using opening lines than UCLA and Mich State would fit this weekend.
    i've noticed UCLA on a few good system plays this weekend. not even sure who they play. i'm guessing stanford? EDIT: arizona at UCLA....
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  18. 11-03-12 04:18 AM #53
    brumbies
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    Im confused! Who do we play according to the trend?

    Arizona U +3.5 -113
    UCLA -3.5 +102
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  19. 11-03-12 04:19 AM #54
    brumbies
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    Im confused! Who do we play according to the trend?



    Nebraska -1.5 +107
    Michigan State +1.5 -118
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  20. 11-03-12 05:36 AM #55
    TiredPro
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    Play UCLA against Az and play Mich St against Neb if Mich St is the favorite......line keeps jumping between -1 and +1. The trend is solid in both college football and basketball..........can't cherry pick it though.....need to play these situations when they are available. Squares love betting on a ranked team getting points.......Bruins and hopefully Sparty today.
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  21. 11-03-12 10:40 AM #56
    daneblazer
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    Play UCLA, not Nebraska...too much movement on that one.
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  22. 11-03-12 10:45 AM #57
    Dfjay9
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    I can't believe people are pumped about this after one hit.
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  23. 11-04-12 03:25 PM #58
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Only if it's a night game with a quarter moon, so this game may apply.
    You sure do blow a lot of hot air being a guy getting his ass handed to him in a contest by a guy that ONLY plays systems and trends...

    http://contests.sportsbookreview.com/sbr-bes...043/standings/
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  24. 11-04-12 03:48 PM #59
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    You sure do blow a lot of hot air being a guy getting his ass handed to him in a contest by a guy that ONLY plays systems and trends...

    http://contests.sportsbookreview.com/sbr-bes...043/standings/
    And who would that be? And i wouldn't worry so much about contests, real life bets are all that matter. Bottom line is anyone that blindly plays trends without giving any regard to what the spread is will lose in the long run. That is just a fact, not looking for an argument.
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  25. 11-04-12 04:14 PM #60
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    And who would that be? And i wouldn't worry so much about contests, real life bets are all that matter. Bottom line is anyone that blindly plays trends without giving any regard to what the spread is will lose in the long run. That is just a fact, not looking for an argument.
    1..that player would be 48.48% +6.18u
    2. "wouldn't worry so much about contests"... I play my pick in the contest for "real life" money...it's my best pick! Don't you...well yes. (since you had to put that in your response).
    3. Personal question...how do you cap games?.
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  26. 11-04-12 04:33 PM #61
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    1..that player would be 48.48% +6.18u
    2. "wouldn't worry so much about contests"... I play my pick in the contest for "real life" money...it's my best pick! Don't you...well yes. (since you had to put that in your response).
    3. Personal question...how do you cap games?.
    Right this contest is ONE pick per day. I obviously play many more games than that and 95% of my plays are for the same % of bankroll, so it is not as if the play I enter in the contest is truly stronger than my other plays (unless it falls within the other 5%). As for how I cap, I have various methods that set prices on games and then I compare those to the actual lines. That is what makes trends like this so silly, because if you specifically using the trend stated by the OP, UCLA for example would have been a play if they were -1 or -10. Don't you see the flaw in that logic?
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  27. 11-04-12 04:36 PM #62
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    And who would that be? And i wouldn't worry so much about contests, real life bets are all that matter. Bottom line is anyone that blindly plays trends without giving any regard to what the spread is will lose in the long run. That is just a fact, not looking for an argument.
    Anyway...if you want too take you blinders off and actually learn a NEW way of capping (or too supplement) shoot me an PM. Not an argument here., just trying to make you better and give you additional knowledge.
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  28. 11-04-12 04:58 PM #63
    kfranz31
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    i didjt realize that ucla was also unranked vs arizona also giving points...also covered easily
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  29. 11-04-12 05:04 PM #64
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    Anyway...if you want too take you blinders off and actually learn a NEW way of capping (or too supplement) shoot me an PM. Not an argument here., just trying to make you better and give you additional knowledge.
    I'd bet that I have been betting on sports longer than you have been on earth.
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  30. 11-04-12 05:18 PM #65
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I'd bet that I have been betting on sports longer than you have been on earth.
    Perhaps, betting for over 10 years here, Only a fool and inferior uses emoticons. I was trying to keep this friendly and actually trying to help. (yes I do have great info, that I was willing to share). I'm already beating you like drum...how would like to settle this? I'm a trends/ system's player..you, I guess, are a value player...what makes you think you can predict a game more than I can? Keep in mind.. I am 48% over 6 units and over 60 games.
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  31. 11-04-12 05:19 PM #66
    InTheDrink
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    are these guys new to betting college sports?
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  32. 11-04-12 05:21 PM #67
    JMon
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    Oh we can tonight game? I'm on it.
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  33. 11-04-12 05:37 PM #68
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    Perhaps, betting for over 10 years here, Only a fool and inferior uses emoticons. I was trying to keep this friendly and actually trying to help. (yes I do have great info, that I was willing to share). I'm already beating you like drum...how would like to settle this? I'm a trends/ system's player..you, I guess, are a value player...what makes you think you can predict a game more than I can? Keep in mind.. I am 48% over 6 units and over 60 games.
    Dude just look at my past results here in the forum, I have had something like 26 winning seasons out of 34 since I joined SBR across the 6 major North American sports. And how are you "beating me to a drum" when you haven't even addressed the basic question I posed in Post #61? According your logic, UCLA -1 and UCLA -10 would be treated as if they have the exact same edge.
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  34. 11-04-12 05:57 PM #69
    nvrlose37
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Not true at all, and this game is a perfect example. Nebraska is home and a lot of well respected power ratings only have Michigan -2 neutral over Michigan, so this line makes perfect sense. And the betting on the game is about 50/50, so being ranked doesn't hold that much weight with bettors. And most importantly, any trend that doesn't take the spread into account is meaningless. Idiots that blindly follow the trend wouldn't care if Nebraska was -1 or -10.
    Seeing as you are so worldly on the topic of CFB as you probably would attest, when would you ever see an unranked home team favored by 10 over a rank of 20-25? I'm pretty sure the majority of this is all games like last night's UCLA/Ariz and Mich St/Neb.
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  35. 11-04-12 06:51 PM #70
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by nvrlose37 View Post
    Seeing as you are so worldly on the topic of CFB as you probably would attest, when would you ever see an unranked home team favored by 10 over a rank of 20-25? I'm pretty sure the majority of this is all games like last night's UCLA/Ariz and Mich St/Neb.
    Yes but I was making a generic point about ignoring the line. If you want one that can apply to this particular trend, think about -2.5 vs. -3.5.
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