[BamaCBass]

Is it not ok for ppl to disagree? LOL. Opinions on both sides are what makes for an informative thread.

Anybody ever focus on defensive stats anymore? Everybody loves to talk about offense, qb's and runningback numbers. Guess it's not very glamorous to talk about the men in the trenches or good ole D. Guess I'll see what I can find.

Appreciate the input fellas.

[Louisvillekid1]

Louisville ML

Hope all is well!

GO CARDS!

[Louisvillekid1]

Is it not ok for ppl to disagree? LOL. Opinions on both sides are what makes for an informative thread.

Anybody ever focus on defensive stats anymore? Everybody loves to talk about offense, qb's and runningback numbers. Guess it's not very glamorous to talk about the men in the trenches or good ole D. Guess I'll see what I can find.

Appreciate the input fellas.

Louisville hasn't really played well on defense for 4 quarters all year. The talent is there but for whatever reasons they have just not put it all together for a full game. Last weeks rushing defense was atrocious giving up like 200 yards to USF, but that has been the focus all week in practice while preparing for Cincinnati. Last year we had a top 10 defense nationally, and they will continue to improve throughout the season. They have lost 4 straight to the Bearcats, (2 under Charlie Strong) and should have a good gameplan to bother Munchie tonight.

Only the other side of the ball the Bearcats are down their best pass rusher and Teddy doesn't get sacked anyway so I have no worries moving the ball @ home with our very balanced attack.

[GoBlue23]

Here is a list of their opponents. UL- road- S Miss, Pitt, FIU
home UK Mizz St UNC S fla

Cincy has played one road game and lost here are their opponents- their one road game at toledo was a loss lol,
home games: Pitt, Delaware St, VT, Miami Oh, and Fordham lol

It is highly debatable who has played tougher opponents. Cincy hasnt won on the road lol. Give me a break if u are going to argue they played a tougher schedule when 5 of their first 6 have been in Cincy

Cincy played Va Tech at FedEx field/Redskins stadium (neutral location). Not saying you're wrong about the strength of schedules but counting Va Tech as a home game in any database is incorrect

[BamaCBass]

Louisville hasn't really played well on defense for 4 quarters all year. The talent is there but for whatever reasons they have just not put it all together for a full game. Last weeks rushing defense was atrocious giving up like 200 yards to USF, but that has been the focus all week in practice while preparing for Cincinnati. Last year we had a top 10 defense nationally, and they will continue to improve throughout the season. They have lost 4 straight to the Bearcats, (2 under Charlie Strong) and should have a good gameplan to bother Munchie tonight.

Only the other side of the ball the Bearcats are down their best pass rusher and Teddy doesn't get sacked anyway so I have no worries moving the ball @ home with our very balanced attack.

Appreciate the input.

[Eagles27]

Im taking Cincy on the ML, dont ask why. Just going with my gut on this one (very small wager).

[Louisvillekid1]

Im taking Cincy on the ML, dont ask why. Just going with my gut on this one (very small wager).

[leetreaper]

Appreciate the info meat. Predict score?

28-26 Cincy

[MeatWad]

I never said my write ups were the best, honestly I just type random thoughts about the game from analysis I already made, not even a write up, but things that come to mind that I feel are important. You can fade or tail or ignore.

The Cincy D will have their hands full with UL, missing their best DE. UL is more balanced than Cincy, usually Bridgewater is a more consistent, accurate and less error prone QB(all supported by the stats) who is quite capable of taking off and running as well as Munchie. UL has more targets and a solid 2 pronged backfield, soo it is hard to stop their offense. They are capable of throwing it to many different targets and running either RB or QB well. Noone has stopped them yet. The only thing that has slowed their offense was a huge downpour throughout the S Miss game, and UL has pulled their players in blowouts.

I expect both teams to score well here, although rain is projected. I bet less on the over than the game. I think a 34-24 type of score is most likely. Not a blowout game, but Cincy is not as smooth offensively to keep up with UL. Cincy is slightly more error prone and not as fluid as UL primarirly due to their at times erratic QB. Bridewater is a soph starter for UL, huge recruit out of high school, who continues to improve into a big time QB with each game. He has less INTS total and per att, better y/p, Comp %, and more TDs than Munchie.

Got an opponent hu, gl!

Damn no love here, almost picked the exact final score and still split my bets. Hate when the game plays exactly how you project it and you don't win. It was soo obvious Bridgewater would outshine Munchie here and he did, 24-41, 416 yds 2TD and 1 INT vs Munchie's 13-28, 157 yds, 1 TD and 3 INTs, not even close. Kinda of feel robbed right now, another example of how the final score doesn't always reflect who the correct side was. UL got 171 more yds of total offense and Munchie as expected made mistake after mistake 3 INTS and only 32 yds of rushing.

[Justin3587]

Thanks for finding this. I have my own ratings and statistical databases which are too complicated too explain in a post. I could not believe this idiot had the nerve to challenge me with his garbage analysis.

In determing my projections not much weight was given to strength of schedule as there is such a slight differential between the two teams sos, they are fairly comparable. This moron mentions UL playing 3 teams with 7 losses as though that is the only relevant factor when examining strength of schedule.

The fact Cincy has played only one road game and lost to Toledo is far more pertinent than the fact UL played 3 teams with 7 losses. What a tool this guy is.

I won my bet you stupid piece of shit cokk sucker.

[MeatWad]

I won my bet you stupid piece of shit cokk sucker.

Nice post. I have made around 100 bets this week, from Nascar to golf to football totals and will make close to 100 more on props and quarter totals alone. You must be 20 yo and betting $100 per unit? My analysis reflects why I seldom have a losing month or week even, even in a game I split 1-1.

[RITZ]

I had Lville -3 and even though it was a push felt like a win after watching that 1st half I was luck to push.

[MeatWad]

I had Lville -3 and even though it was a push felt like a win after watching that 1st half I was luck to push.

Why? Because of that INT that Cincy turned into a TD? That was the most crucial play to us not covering. Had UL not allowed that or capitilzed off of Munchie's 3 INTs it would have never went to overtime. Not to mention Cincy's drive with less than 2 minutes to go and down 7.

[MeatWad]

There are not many scenarios where you totally dominate total yds gained and the turnover battle and have no major special teams plays, yet go to overtime.

[leetreaper]

Why? Because of that INT that Cincy turned into a TD? That was the most crucial play to us not covering. Had UL not allowed that or capitilzed off of Munchie's 3 INTs it would have never went to overtime. Not to mention Cincy's drive with less than 2 minutes to go and down 7.

This game never felt like a win for the Cards, gl/lucky all the L;s backers, do not care about the moeny, care about the game more and i feel we were robbed big time...

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

UL got lucky to win. I was there and box scores don't always tell the real tale. I'm telling you all, UL got lucky to win. They can not tackle and their defense is atrocious. With that being said, Bridgewater is a stud. Heisman hopeful 2014

[ChalkyDog]

I had Lville -3 and even though it was a push felt like a win after watching that 1st half I was luck to push.

This, exactly this.

[MeatWad]

This, exactly this.

Would you phrase it exactly like "this?" Personally I wanted to replace the noun luck, with the adjective lucky in his sentence. Nice analysis nonetheless.

[ChalkyDog]

Would you phrase it exactly like "this?" Personally I wanted to replace the noun luck, with the adjective lucky in his sentence. Nice analysis nonetheless.

His post, aside from spelling on the main point of the sentence, is an identical synopsis of my feelings on the game.

Buying the hook makes one feel like a damn genius in these type of situations.

[MeatWad]

UL has a decisive edge in this game. Once Bridgewater found his rythm it was on, he threw an INT that kept Cincy in the game with an easy drive TD in the first half and missed several wide open receivers, he is usually much more accurate, and was down the stretch.

A long Cincy TD drive with less than 2 minutes on the clock and you feel lucky to cover? You do realize had UL lost the overtime coin toss, they score an easy TD first then shut down Cincy for the 7 point win?

[MeatWad]

His post, aside from spelling on the main point of the sentence, is an identical synopsis of my feelings on the game.

Buying the hook makes one feel like a damn genius in these type of situations.

Makes up for those times when you buy it and it is meaningless I guess. Definitely not a bad idea to buy the hook to obtain a crucial number though.

[Justin3587]

Guys. You need to chill. You don't want MeatWad sending you pm's about how thug life he is.

[MeatWad]

Guys. You need to chill. You don't want MeatWad sending you pm's about how thug life he is.

You consider my lifestyle thug? I live in a non black area, the nicest section of south beach, south of 5th. Not sure how that constitutes thug life? There are some bums that hang on the east side of Lincoln Rd and Lummus Park, guess that is thug life?

[ChalkyDog]

UL has a decisive edge in this game. Once Bridgewater found his rythm it was on, he threw an INT that kept Cincy in the game with an easy drive TD in the first half and missed several wide open receivers, he is usually much more accurate, and was down the stretch.

A long Cincy TD drive with less than 2 minutes on the clock and you feel lucky to cover? You do realize had UL lost the overtime coin toss, they score an easy TD first then shut down Cincy for the 7 point win?

While that is one of the many ways this could have played out, there is no question that I felt cincy looked better (even if it is slightly) when I was watching that game.

However, in a game that had a fatal timeout to ice the kicker, in which the snap sailed over the place holders hands - you can't tell me that they would have "easily scored" 6 if they lost the coin toss.

[MeatWad]

"While that is one of the many ways this could have played out, there is no question that I felt cincy looked better (even if it is slightly) when I was watching that game.

However, in a game that had a fatal timeout to ice the kicker, in which the snap sailed over the place holders hands - you can't tell me that they would have "easily scored" 6 if they lost the coin toss."






I can not predict the outcome of any future event with absolute certainty. Saying UL would easily score is dependent on your defnition of easily. Watching gameflow and momentum I think it is safe to say they score a TD from the 25 yd line in OT well over 50% of the time.

I am primarily basing this conclusion on the following: UL had four 4th quarter drives:

4 plays 93 yards TD
4 plays 25 yards Punt
2 plays 72 yards TD
4 plays 27 yards end of regulation


Their offense was clicking and 25 yards definitely seemed like a +EV bet. I live bet games frequently and momentum is paramount. As teams tire, it dramatically affects the expectancies as the game progresses due to their conditioning and physical strength. This is true for all sports. I love live tennis betting as aerobic conditioning completely changes the matches when players fatigue late.

[Louisvillekid1]

MeatWad,

Good CAll...

i predicted 31-23 and really thought it was going to finish 31-24 but for whatever reason our defense is really struggling. I don't understand why they weren't bringing pressure.

[MeatWad]

MeatWad,

Good CAll...

i predicted 31-23 and really thought it was going to finish 31-24 but for whatever reason our defense is really struggling. I don't understand why they weren't bringing pressure.

Thanks man I think we were both correct. It was an odd game. The defense struggled yet still forced Munchie into 3 INTs and held Cincy to less 171 total yards of offense. I wish they would have played a 5th quarter instead of the OT, we win by no less than 10.