1. 10-23-12 04:33 PM #1
    ashulga
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    Ark st is the play

    Take 3.5 pts while you still can. Vegas wants you to tak L Monroe bc they are home team with slightly better record, and 3-0 at home. Ark st got senior qb that can play and L Lafayette can't stop the pass. If they don't fumble the game away they win straight up. Always read between the lines too line opened at -4 and is down to 3.5 even 3 with 60/40 on Lafayette instead of going other way. Play with Vegas take ark st. Good luck
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  2. 10-23-12 04:45 PM #2
    Jago2008
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    I see an almost even % on the spread. The biggest difference is on the total, with the majority siding on the 'under'.
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  3. 10-23-12 04:53 PM #3
    bigdaddyjames
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    I like Lafayette and the under ....
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  4. 10-23-12 05:00 PM #4
    ashulga
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    I show 64/36 current for Lafayette. I trust the site as I always followed it
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  5. 10-23-12 05:05 PM #5
    GWOZOZO
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashulga View Post
    I show 64/36 current for Lafayette. I trust the site as I always followed it
    I think you're right. Can I have the link to the site? I don't have a site like that, and I need to add that to my resources. Thanks
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  6. 10-23-12 05:05 PM #6
    GChild
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    Covers has it
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  7. 10-23-12 05:16 PM #7
    Murray Rothbard
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    I asked this in another thread but got no response so i'll ask here. What good are looking at what the public is taking if you don't bet for that particular site. For example this site has 67% of the public taking ULL tonight. But how accurate of a representation is that on the site I bet on? In other words, if you I don't bet on that site should I even be taking those numbers into consideration?
    Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 05-13-15 at 03:13 PM. Reason: link does not work
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  8. 10-23-12 05:19 PM #8
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashulga View Post
    I show 64/36 current for Lafayette. I trust the site as I always followed it
    Likewise in mine, it depends on the book they're sponsoring, that's a huge difference according to yours. Anytime I see something approaching 70% yet the line is dropping in favor of the other team you might have some questions with the site you're using. Ark. St. line dropped along with its ML.
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  9. 10-23-12 05:21 PM #9
    Antwon1825
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    Arkansas state will lose, and the over will soar
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  10. 10-23-12 06:10 PM #10
    Omaga
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    Quote Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard View Post
    I asked this in another thread but got no response so i'll ask here. What good are looking at what the public is taking if you don't bet for that particular site. For example this site has 67% of the public taking ULL tonight. But how accurate of a representation is that on the site I bet on? In other words, if you I don't bet on that site should I even be taking those numbers into consideration?
    Murray just ask your sportsbook or the site you bet at what the consensus is....this way you get it from the horses mouth
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  11. 10-23-12 06:12 PM #11
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omaga View Post
    Murray just ask your sportsbook or the site you bet at what the consensus is....this way you get it from the horses mouth
    So would you agree that looking at what the public is taking has no bearing on your decision unless the public consensus is from the site you bet on? Btw, thanks for replying!
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  12. 10-23-12 06:19 PM #12
    ashulga
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    "
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  13. 10-23-12 06:24 PM #13
    Lakers714
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashulga View Post
    Take 3.5 pts while you still can. Vegas wants you to tak L Monroe bc they are home team with slightly better record, and 3-0 at home. Ark st got senior qb that can play and L Lafayette can't stop the pass. If they don't fumble the game away they win straight up. Always read between the lines too line opened at -4 and is down to 3.5 even 3 with 60/40 on Lafayette instead of going other way. Play with Vegas take ark st. Good luck
    U should be paying attention to make like movement. From what I see, line opened at -4, then to -3 and now moved back up to -3.5. Late line movement is always a good indicator of which side is the one to take. If the line moves again to ULL -4 before kickoff, I would bet ULL. Disclaimer is I can't name u a single player on either team but u can make a play solely based on line and late line movement. BOL.
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  14. 10-23-12 06:29 PM #14
    thfootball
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    i got the over. i'm hoping they'll be at least 2/3, or more of the total at the half
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  15. 10-23-12 06:33 PM #15
    Lakers714
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    It has come to this; betting on a game where I cant name the 2 starting QBs for either team. On ULL -3 for a very small amount. We're all degenerates for betting this game.
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  16. 10-23-12 06:36 PM #16
    Chum Slam
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers714 View Post
    U should be paying attention to make like movement. From what I see, line opened at -4, then to -3 and now moved back up to -3.5. Late line movement is always a good indicator of which side is the one to take. If the line moves again to ULL -4 before kickoff, I would bet ULL. Disclaimer is I can't name u a single player on either team but u can make a play solely based on line and late line movement. BOL.
    What if my local has it locked at 3.5?
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  17. 10-23-12 06:36 PM #17
    hunter8720
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers714 View Post
    It has come to this; betting on a game where I cant name the 2 starting QBs for either team. On ULL -3 for a very small amount. We're all degenerates for betting this game.
    Right there with u
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  18. 10-23-12 06:40 PM #18
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers714 View Post
    It has come to this; betting on a game where I cant name the 2 starting QBs for either team. On ULL -3 for a very small amount. We're all degenerates for betting this game.
    What Lakers said. And also as I said in my write- up on the forum, we should all kill ourselves for betting on this game.
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  19. 10-23-12 06:44 PM #19
    ashulga
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    ULL can pull it out but ark st I right side to be on. Good luck to all but to me line movement and public action are biggest indicators on who to wager on. Any info we will dig up, Vegas already knows so if the line goes other way it indicates a solid play. Also early warning Vegas missed lots of big games since last Thursday. Made some back yest, and this weekend public will go down big trust me so stay away from public favs if u can't pull the trigger the other way
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  20. 10-23-12 06:46 PM #20
    ashulga
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    3.5 is good
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  21. 10-23-12 06:49 PM #21
    A4K
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    I don't mean to brag, boys, but I have a whopping 12 betpoints on this contest.
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  22. 10-23-12 06:53 PM #22
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by A4K View Post
    I don't mean to brag, boys, but I have a whopping 12 betpoints on this contest.
    Who you got boy?

    Btw, nice win on that play last night. You should roll that $1 over for tonight game.
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  23. 10-23-12 06:53 PM #23
    A4K
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    Quote Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard View Post
    Who you got boy?

    Btw, nice win on that play last night. You should roll that $1 over for tonight game.
    Took Arkansas State and the 3.5.
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  24. 10-23-12 06:54 PM #24
    A4K
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    Quote Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard View Post
    Who you got boy?

    Btw, nice win on that play last night. You should roll that $1 over for tonight game.
    Are you studying economics?
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  25. 10-23-12 06:58 PM #25
    Chum Slam
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    also on Ark St
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  26. 10-23-12 07:02 PM #26
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by A4K View Post
    Took Arkansas State and the 3.5.
    Booooooo. I got ULL -3.5. BOL (not really).

    Quote Originally Posted by A4K
    Are you studying economics?


    Yes. Well, my degree is technically called Finance/Economics but yes I study economics on my spare time for fun. Weird I know.

    Since you ask you must be familiar with Rothbard and Austrian economics?
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  27. 10-23-12 07:06 PM #27
    possum11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers714 View Post
    U should be paying attention to make like movement. From what I see, line opened at -4, then to -3 and now moved back up to -3.5. Late line movement is always a good indicator of which side is the one to take. If the line moves again to ULL -4 before kickoff, I would bet ULL. Disclaimer is I can't name u a single player on either team but u can make a play solely based on line and late line movement. BOL.
    based on what? does "always" translate to a percentage?
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  28. 10-23-12 07:17 PM #28
    MarkTX
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    Teased Ark St +9.5 and Over 57

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  29. 10-23-12 08:03 PM #29
    ashulga
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    It's nice when your bet pretty much hits by half time. Lots of people just over think these games. Formula is fairly simple stay away from what all your betting friends like and you will end in a winning circle. But seriously line movement is way more important than ur research on who is playing. Vegas already knows that
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  30. 10-23-12 08:17 PM #30
    House
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    -1 10/23/12 9:08pm $150.00 $136.36 Pending 10/23/12 8:00pm Live In-Play Football 9102 UL Lafayette +9½ -110* vs Arkansas State
    141809625-1 10/23/12 1:19am $825.00 $750.00 Pending 10/23/12 8:00pm College Football 101 Arkansas State +4½ -110* vs UL Lafayette
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  31. 10-23-12 08:41 PM #31
    A4K
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    Quote Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard View Post
    Booooooo. I got ULL -3.5. BOL (not really).



    Yes. Well, my degree is technically called Finance/Economics but yes I study economics on my spare time for fun. Weird I know.

    Since you ask you must be familiar with Rothbard and Austrian economics?
    My father has a degree in economics. Some of our discussions get stuck in my brain.
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  32. 10-23-12 08:44 PM #32
    A4K
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    Quote Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard View Post
    Who you got boy?

    Btw, nice win on that play last night. You should roll that $1 over for tonight game.
    LOL...I'd never bet $400 to win a $1. I do that to make fun of GUARANTEED WINNER predictions that I read on this site. I have a small wager on Ark State ML....
    Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 05-13-15 at 03:14 PM. Reason: image does not exist
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  33. 10-23-12 08:45 PM #33
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by A4K View Post
    My father has a degree in economics. Some of our discussions get stuck in my brain.
    True. Does your father bet? I know the majority of economist believe that we can model human action so I'm sure some of them out there would love building models for sports games (though modeling sports and human action aren't entirely analogous).
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  34. 10-23-12 08:51 PM #34
    A4K
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    Quote Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard View Post
    True. Does your father bet? I know the majority of economist believe that we can model human action so I'm sure some of them out there would love building models for sports games (though modeling sports and human action aren't entirely analogous).
    He's retired, but plays poker. Probably averages 6 hours a day playing Texas Hold 'em.

    We built a basketball model back in 1998, for fun. The first three weeks it was winning at a crazy clip. We won a nice chunk of change at a sportsbook called Bowmans, but I believe they were bought out. Those were fun times.

    Have you experimented with modeling?
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  35. 10-23-12 09:10 PM #35
    turbozed
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    If it makes you feel better, the commentator in this game just called ULL Lafayette ULL Monroe too. lol
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