This line started out at Rutgers -4, and now it is up to -5 or -5.5 in some books. A lot of people think this is the sucker bet of the week, and it certainly would appear that way on paper. Rutgers is 6-0, #15 in the country, and playing a Temple team that the public perceives to be a bad football school. So why is this spread less than a touchdown? Is this like #5 West Virginia laying points at Texas Tech last week? My answer is no, and here's why:
My guess is that the oddsmakers are predicting a low scoring affair, just as they have in the previous two Rutgers
games (-7 vs UConn, -7 vs Syracuse). After all, Rutgers is only averaging 25 points per game, which doesn’t leave much room for error defensively when trying to cover by 5-7 points. However, the Rutgers defense has definitely answered the call so far this season. (ranked #7 overall in scoring defense).
Temple runs the ball a whopping 62% of the time. That is more than power running teams Alabama, LSU, and Wisconsin. Their one-dimensional offense will run into a brick wall against this Rutgers defense that ranks 2nd nationally in rush defense (58 yards per game). Look for Rutgers to stuff the run, and force Temple to beat them through the air. If this happens, it will be a long day for the Temple offense that ranks 102nd in pass completion percentage. The Owls are only converting an abysmal 30% of their third down attempts (#113 in nation) due in large part to their inability to pass the ball on third and long scenarios. They may find themselves in plenty of those situations if the stingy Rutgers defense can stop the run on first and second down.
Rutgers also likes to establish the run with their star RB Jamison. Temple is giving up 143 rushing yards per game, so Jamison may find some running room in between the Owls' front seven. If that holds true, it should set up play-action opportunities for the Knights’ efficient QB, Nova. In the past four games, he has thrown 8 TD’s and 0 INT’s. UConn had success passing the ball down the middle of the field early in last week’s game vs Temple. Look for Rutgers’ big, physical receivers to break inside with slant or post routes to take advantage of the holes in the secondary.
It is paramount that Rutgers is able to establish a solid running threat in this game. Much like Rutgers defensive gameplan heading into this matchup, Temple will also try to stuff the run to get the Knights into predictable passing situations. Temple thrives in getting a good pass rush, as they have managed to get sacks on nearly 9% of their opponents passing attempts (which ranks 11th in the nation). To stay away from those situations, Rutgers will need to keep the Owl’s defensive front guessing with a balanced attack.
The only significant downfall of this Rutgers offense early in the season has been their inability to finish drives. They rank 101st in the country in red-zone scoring at 71%, They certainly don’t want to fall into the same trap UConn did against Temple last week when the Huskies missed four field goals and lost the game in overtime. The Knights have to find a way to finish drives to keep pressure on the Temple offense to make a play.
I think Rutgers will come out focused and ready to play their brand of football. It’s always hard to lay points on the road, but Rutgers is a confident team that runs the ball, stops the run, doesn’t turn the ball over, and gets takeaways. They should be able to stop Temple’s one-dimensional offense, all the while keeping a balanced offense themselves. I think they will keep on rolling, remain undefeated, and cover the spread.
Nice writeup. Rutgers looks pretty easy here, the only concern I have is that their offense (at times) can be rather ineffective. Temple will have a very hard time running the ball though. I expect a lot of misdirection/trickeration plays to keep the Knights off balance. Good luck on your play, the game will most likely be a close one.
I agree, as I mentioned, Rutgers at times has difficulties finishing drives. They could really benefit from some takeaways to give them a short field. They are currently 2nd in the nation in turnover margin, and they will need to continue to win the turnover battle if they want to maintain a lead in this one.
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