[Jeff Grant]

[Jeff Grant]

Louisville Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Panthers


Louisville has lost the last four games in this series, including a 21-14 setback as three-point home favorites last year, as it lost the statistical battle by a 116-yard margin. The Cardinals are playing their third consecutive road game, but it’s important to note that the program is coming off its bye week. Saturday’s game also serves as the Big East Conference opener for the program, as it’s compiled a 1-6 record in that situation. Louisville is 7-3 ATS in October the last two-plus seasons, with the UNDER going 8-2 in those contests.


The Cardinals are just 10-15 on the road during their history in the Big East, but have won three league games in a row in that situation. Louisville has tallied an even 5-5 record in the calendar’s 10th month under head coach Charlie Strong. Offensively, the team is averaging just 24.5 points per game away from home, which directly reflects the fact that the unit is averaging just 296 yards in that situation. The team has won its last three games by a total of 16 points—marking the first occurrence of pulling off such a feat since 1999.


Pittsburgh is set to host an undefeated opponent after suffering a 14-13 loss to the Syracuse Orange as one-point road underdogs last Friday, but the team has won the statistical battle in its last three games. The Panthers have given up only two touchdowns and two field goals over their last three games, while forcing eight turnovers after creating zero in the first two weeks of the season. Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS off a loss by three points or less against conference opponents.


The Panthers have compiled a 25-13 record in Big East home games played inside Heinz Field. Pittsburgh is led by senior quarterback Tino Sunseri, who has completed 73 percent of his passes for 946 yards and six touchdowns with a single interception over the last three weeks. He leads the conference and ranks 11th nationally with a 164.67 passer rating. Running back Ray Graham is starting to round into form, gaining 419 yards on 89 carries through five games.


-Louisville has scored first in all five games
-Outscoring opponents by a 90-35 margin in the first half
-The Cardinals are playing their third game before noon under Strong (2-0)
-Since joining the Big East, Louisville is 3-8 in NFL stadiums
-Panthers 11-2 ATS in conference home games
-Panthers have allowed 11 sacks in two Big East games






Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners


Texas is set to meet Oklahoma for the 107th installment of the Red River Rivalry, as it looks to bounce back from a 48-45 setback to the West Virginia Mountaineers as 7.5-point home favorites. The Longhorns also enter this particular contest with double revenge in this series, including a 55-17 loss as 11-point underdogs last year. “I think in my estimation we could see a conference champion with one or maybe two losses this year,” stated Longhorns head coach Mack Brown. Texas is 6-10 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two-plus seasons.


The Longhorns hold a 59-42-5 series lead against the Sooners, including wins in four of the last seven meetings. Texas is the only Big 12 Conference team that holds a winning record against Oklahoma. It’s important to note that the program is 5-16-2 when it’s the lower-rated team when the two teams meet. Quarterback David Ash has been the focal point offensively for a unit that ranks sixth nationally in averaging 46.8 points per game.


Oklahoma has tallied an 8-5 record in this game under the direction of head coach Bob Stoops, as it looks to build on last week’s 41-20 win as four-point road favorites over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. For the first time since 2007, and the second time since 1997, both teams already have a conference loss. “It doesn’t have any different feel,” stated Sooners head coach Bob Stoops. In the 13 games with Stoops on the sideline, the program has outscored Texas by an average margin of 36.3 to 23.7 points per game. Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS as a neutral-site favorite the last two-plus years.


The Sooners have a capable quarterback of their own, as Landry Jones has compiled a 32-9 record as a starter, as he looks to set the school record for wins with a victory in this high-profile affair. Oklahoma has shown extreme balance in the early going this year, ranking 36th nationally in rushing yards and 37th in passing yards. On the other side of the football, the defensive unit tallied three interceptions last week after having just one entering the game.


-Longhorns have turned the ball over just three times (tied-3rd nationally)
-Longhorns averaged 3.7 sacks per game (L3 games)
-Texas has five TO’s last year, QB play
-Favorite is 6-2-1 ATS L9 meetings
-Landry Jones has gone seven straight games without throwing for over 300 yards
-11 of L14 meetings have been decided by double digits
-Mack Brown 8-1 ATS when playing with double revenge (3-1 SUATS versus Oklahoma in that situation)




Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers


Crimson Tide will look to jump on the Tigers early coming off a bye


Alabama sits atop the national rankings and will try to hold that spot heading into the first release of the BCS standings on Sunday, as the team should be well rested after enjoying a bye week. The Crimson Tide have simply dominated opponents in the first half over their last 25 games, outscoring them by a significant 489-97 margin, which has led directly to having the lead or being tied in 25 straight games. Sports bettors will want to take a close look at the first-half betting odds when they are released later in the week.


Missouri has never beaten a top-ranked team in the AP poll


The Tigers have alternated wins and losses over their first six games of the 2012 campaign, as they come off a 19-15 setback against the Vanderbilt Commodores as seven-point home favorites, while going UNDER the total for the fourth consecutive week. It’s hard to imagine an upset victory in this spot due to the school already losing its first three SEC games, especially when you consider its 0-12 straight-up record against top-ranked teams in the AP Top 25 poll.


Saban loves October


Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban has won two national championships since arriving in Tuscaloosa, which isn’t surprising when you consider his 15-1 record in the month of October. Alabama has been incredible in this situation in its last six games against conference opponents, winning those contests by an average of 30.3 points. College football handicappers will find that the program has covered its last five games during this particular calendar month.


Pinkel is familiar with the other sideline


Gary Pinkel ranks as the ninth-winningest active coach in major college football with 161 career victories, with 88 of those coming with the Tigers. Missouri’s front man has never faced Saban in his career on the sidelines, but it’s important to note that the two were teammates during their playing days at Kent State.


McCarron is delivering under center


Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron didn’t have to do much on the offensive end to win the national title, as he had the luxury of handing the ball off to star running back Trent Richardson, while the team had a suffocating defense on the other end. He has thrown for 12 touchdowns in the first five games, which is the most in school history in the amount of time. The junior ranks second in the conference with a 177.04 pass efficiency rating, as he’s failed to throw an interception in his last 206 attempts dating back to last year.


-Crimson Tide is a perfect 22 of 22 in the red zone
-Tied 12-5 ATS as SEC road favorite
-Tigers 6-15 ATS at home
-Pinkel 7-0 OVER at home off an upset loss as a favorite
-Tigers 7-3 ATS as underdogs versus rested opponent






Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs


Tennessee has won a series-best six consecutive games in this series since 1995, which includes two consecutive wins at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. The Volunteers will be coming off a bye week, as they have alternated wins and losses over their last four games, as they look to bounce back from a 51-44 setback to the Georgia Bulldogs as 13.5-point road underdogs. Most of the team’s problems are found on the defensive end, as the unit ranks 12th or worst in the SEC in rushing defense, total defense and points allowed. Tennessee is 3-4 ATS as a road underdog over the last two-plus years, with the OVER going 5-2 in those contests.


The Volunteers have won the last six meetings by 10 or more points, with an average margin of victory of 24.5. Tennessee has enjoyed great success in conference play when coming off an open date, posting a 40-25-2 record in that situation. Offense certainly hasn’t been the problem, ranking second in the SEC and 17th nationally in averaging 506.6 yards per game, while its 2,533 yards of total offense is the most in school history through five games. The ground game is averaging 177.4 yards per game, which is an increase of 87.3 yards per game from a season ago. Quarterback Tyler Bray will try to deliver the program’s first win over a ranked team since Oct. 31, 2009.


Mississippi State is off to its best start since the 1999 campaign, recording five wins in the first five contests for only the fourth time in 113 years of playing football. The Bulldogs are coming off a 27-14 win over the Kentucky Wildcats as 10-point road favorites, as they won the statistical battle by a 199-yard margin. Offensively, the team has scored 171 points through five games, which is the highest total since 1944. Mississippi State is 3-0 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less, with the UNDER going 3-0 in those contests.


The Bulldogs stop unit has performed well in front of the home fans under coordinator Chris Wilson, as the group has given up only two touchdowns in its last 16 quarters inside this venue. Mississippi State has also allowed an average of 76.0 first-half yards in its last four conference home games. Facing Bray will certainly be a challenge, but the team is allowing less than 200 passing yards per game on the year, while ranking eighth nationally with nine interceptions.


-Volunteers have an SEC-low six sacks
-Bulldogs QB Tyler Russell (10 TDs, INT)
-UNDER is 14-4 in Bulldogs L18 games versus conference opponents
-Bulldogs have been the underdog in the last 11 meetings








West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders


Mountaineers doing just enough


West Virginia has won its last two games by a single score, including a 48-45 victory over the Texas Longhorns as 7.5-point road underdogs, while flying OVER the total in those two contests. The Mountaineers have won the statistical battle in all five of their games this year, but they’ve compiled a losing 2-3 against-the-spread record.


Red Raiders face another ranked opponent inside Jones AT&T Stadium


Texas Tech had its four-game win streak to start the year snapped in a 41-20 setback to the Oklahoma Sooners as four-point home underdogs, but it’s important to note that it was out-gained by just 20 yards. The Red Raiders have lost their last two games versus top-five opponents at home by a combined margin of 90-20.


30 is the magic number


In making your Week 7 college football picks this weekend, it’s important to know that the Mountaineers are a dominating 80-3 since 2000 when scoring 30 points or more in a game. Offensively, the team is averaging 570.8 yards per game of total offense, which has translated into video game-type numbers on the scoreboard.


Doege is capable of pulling off an upset


The Red Raiders welcomed back 147 combined starts from a year ago on the offensive side of the football, with the biggest name being quarterback Seth Doege. Texas Tech finished 13th nationally in total offense a year ago, which makes this squad a dangerous home underdog on the college football odds page. He has thrown for 1,392 yards and 15 touchdowns with six interceptions in five games this year.


Heisman Trophy betting favorite invades Lubbock


Geno Smith ranks first nationally in averaging 399.2 passing yards per game, as he helped guide the offense to 460 total yards against the Longhorns in Austin last Saturday. He’s an overwhelming favorite at this point of the season to walk away with the 2012 Heisman Trophy, which isn’t very surprising due to throwing for 24 touchdowns and not a single interception in five games.


Red Raiders are playing some defense this year


Don’t get blinded by the 41 points that Texas Tech allowed against Oklahoma last week, as it allowed just 380 yards of total offense. The Red Raiders are definitely an improved bunch on the defensive end under coordinator Art Kaufman, but it’s important to note that the early-season schedule wasn’t very challenging until meeting the Sooners. The group ranks second nationally in total defense, which is a vast improvement from finishing 96th in that category a year ago.


-Red Raiders 20-5 ATS off a home loss
-Red Raiders 8-1-1 ATS in second of back-to-back home games
-QB Seth Doege has five INTs in the past two weeks






Stanford Cardinal vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish


Stanford takes a detour from its Pac-12 Conference schedule this week to take on Notre Dame in South Bend, as the team comes off a thrilling 54-48 overtime win over the Arizona Wildcats as 10-point home favorites. The Cardinal have been listed as underdogs just once this year, capturing a 21-14 victory over the USC Trojans when getting 9.5 points at home on Sept. 15. The program has won 10 consecutive regular season games against non-conference opponents, including each of the last three in this series. Stanford is 8-1 in its last nine games outside of conference play.


The Cardinal have won nine straight games in the month of October, while winning their last three games when traveling back East. Stanford trailed by 14 points in the four quarter last week, but quarterback Josh Nunes led a furious comeback, finishing with a career-high five touchdowns. He also managed to throw for a career-high 360 yards with no interceptions, which should give him confidence in his second road start of the year. The running game gained a season-high 257 yards, averaging 6.0 yards per carry in that contest.


Notre Dame has covered the point spread in four of its first five games this year, including a 41-3 blowout win over the Miami Hurricanes as 15-point home favorites. The Fighting Irish have been led by a stout defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown in three straight games, which is the longest such streak since 1980 for this storied program. Overall, the defensive unit ranks second nationally in allowing just 7.8 points per game, as it hasn’t surrendered a rushing touchdown. Notre Dame is 0-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points the last two-plus years, with the UNDER going 2-0 in that situation.


The Fighting Irish own a 17-9 edge in this series, as they look to get back in the win column for the first time since 2008, which is the last time they kicked off as a favorite against the Cardinal. Notre Dame will welcome ESPN’s College GameDay to its campus, which may cause the team to be overhyped, considering the program is 8-11 when being one of the featured teams of that particular event. Getting off to a good start is crucial, which is possible due to the team outscoring opponents by a 27-3 margin in the first quarter this year.


-Cardinal owned a 645-216 rushing advantage L3 meetings
-Cardinal 0-5 ATS L5 tries as single-digit underdog
-Brian Kelly 8-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games
-Golson benched due to missing a team meeting, came in after one series






Florida Gators vs. Vanderbilt Commodores


Gators are making some noise


Florida is coming off its biggest win in the Will Muschamp era, capturing a 14-6 victory over the LSU Tigers as two-point home underdogs last week, while going UNDER the total for the fourth time in five games. The Gators enter this week with a perfect 5-0 record, which includes a 4-0 mark in SEC contests. It’s definitely not surprising to find this team as a nearly double-digit road favorite in the Week 7 college football betting odds.


Commodores win one on the road


Vanderbilt picked up its first SEC road victory since the 2010 campaign, escaping with a 19-15 win over the Missouri Tigers as seven-point road underdogs despite losing the statistical battle by 100 yards. The Commodores have gone 0-3 against the spread off a win against a conference rival the last two-plus years, with the OVER cashing in two of those three contests.


Complete domination


Before you start thinking about the Commodores earning an upset victory in this contest as one of your college football predictions this weekend, I suggest taking into account that they’ve lost the last 21 meetings in this series. Vanderbilt dropped a 26-21 decision as 13.5-point road underdogs last year, while going OVER the 44.5-point total. Despite its 9-34-2 overall mark against Florida, it’s important to note that seven of those wins have come in Nashville.


Gillislee is making a name for himself


Gators running back Mike Gillislee ranks first in the SEC and 18th nationally in averaging 109.6 rushing yards per game, while scoring seven touchdowns. Two of those scores came in the second half against the Tigers last week, as he finished with 146 yards on a career-high 34 carries. He played a major part in the team winning the time-of-possession battle by a 37:24-to-23:36 margin last week.


Franklin has enjoyed some success


James Franklin became the first head coach to lead the Commodores to a bowl game in his first season, which placed much-higher expectations on the program coming into the 2012 campaign. Despite a disappointing 2-3 record through five games, Franklin has still managed to tally more victories (eight) in his first first two seasons than any other Vanderbilt coach since 1991-92.


Second-half statistics may tell the story


College football handicappers will find that the Gators have outscored their opponents by a 78-13 margin in the final 30 minutes of games this year, which includes a 41-0 disparity in the final quarter. The Commodores were tied 10-10 at the break against the South Carolina Gamecocks in their 17-13 season-opening loss as 6.5-point home underdogs on Aug. 30, which could signal a first-half play when the betting odds for that particular play hits the market.






USC Trojans vs. Washington Huskies


-Trojans are 21-22-2 all-time in games in which it rained during a majority of the game (60 percent chance of rain on Saturday)
-Playing away from home for the fourth time in five games (bye week in between Cal/Utah)
-Came into last week’s game averaging nine penalties, flagged 14 times versus Utah


-RB Bishop Sankey has rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games
-Rank last in passing offense, averaging 184.2 yards per game (Keith Price)


-20 of the last 34 meetings have been decided by 12 points or less
-UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings
-UNDER is 5-1 in Huskies last six games as a home underdog






South Carolina Gamecocks vs. LSU Tigers


South Carolina has won a school-record 10 straight games, which includes a dominating 35-7 win over the Georgia Bulldogs as one-point home favorites last week, while going UNDER the posted total of 54.5. “Every week’s the same around here as far as getting ready for the opponent we play,” stated Gamecocks head coach Steve Spurrier. The program is shooting for its second-ever 7-0 start, while facing a second top-10 opponent in as many weeks. South Carolina is 1-2 ATS as a road underdog, while the OVER is 2-1 in those contests.


The Gamecocks are 2-16-1 all-time against Saturday’s opponent, with the only win in Baton Rouge coming in 1994. Spurrier should give his locker room some confidence, considering he’s gone 11-3 all-time against LSU. All eyes will be on defensive end Jadeveon Clowney when that particular unit is on the field, coming in with 5.5 sacks, while the team has 22 total. On the other side of the football, running back Marcus Lattimore has accounted for 364 yards and three touchdowns in the last two games.


LSU will lean heavily on head coach Les Miles’ 17-1 record following a loss, as it looks to bounce back from a disappointing 14-6 setback to the Florida Gators as two-point road favorites. The Tigers have failed to cover the spread in their last three games, but they’ve often done their best work inside Tiger Stadium. The team’s last 10 home wins have come by an average of 32.6 points, while it enters with the nation’s longest home win streak of 21 games, which also happens to be a school record. LSU is 2-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival.


The Tigers are certainly up against it in terms of the schedule, as their next four opponents have combined to tally an impressive 20-1 record. LSU has won four straight in this series, with Miles coming up on the winning end in each of his two tries, including a 24-17 win as 1.5-point road favorites on Oct. 18, 2008. The last time the program lost two games during the month of October came in 2008.


-Tigers are 0-4 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards
-Schedule: Georgia, LSU, Florida
-Coming off their first-ever win in a top-10 battle
-School-record 10-game win streak


-Schedule: Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama, Miss St
-Longest home win streak in the country
-Miles is 17-1 in games following a loss, 6-0 when coming off a road loss and returning home
-Last 10 wins at home by double figures (average of 32.6 points)
-Nation’s longest home win streak of 21 games, also a school record


-In the last 27 SEC games with a point spread of seven or fewer points, the team that wins the rushing battle is 23-4 ATS
-Tigers are 0-10 ATS when getting out-rushed at home under Les Miles (2005)
-Miles is 1-8-1 ATS in conference home openers
-LSU is 16-2-1 all-time in this series, 10-1 in Baton Rouge
-Tigers 0-4 ATS after rushing for 100 or fewer yards

[CrimsonTideFan]

Thanks for the great information. Very helpful.

[Jeff Grant]

Thanks for the great information. Very helpful.

You're welcome - Good luck today