1. 10-18-06 08:33 AM #1
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    Al McMordie: Iowa +13½ at Michigan

    Iowa +13½ at Michigan

    Game Time: 10/21/2006 3:30:00 PM
    By: Al McMordie
    http://www.phoenixsports.com

    Coming off their win at Penn St., look for #2 Michigan to have trouble covering the spread at home this Saturday against Iowa.

    Unbeaten home favorites of more than 13 points are 21-42 ATS off a road win if they're matched up against a winning team with a record of 5-0 or better.

    And we can improve our 21-42 stat to 1-12 ATS if our home team is unrested, and going up against a foe that is coming off a SU loss. Take Iowa plus the 13½ points.

    Play: Iowa +13½
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  2. 10-18-06 10:33 AM #2
    hawk 5
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    Iowa gets smoked by over 3 TD's.
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  3. 10-18-06 01:44 PM #3
    bigboydan
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    I like Iowa in this game.
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  4. 10-18-06 02:57 PM #4
    hawk 5
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    Iowa's got 2 offensive linesmen hurt and won't play. There best reciever hurt might play. Can't run the ball against Mich. Our best down linemen, King, hurt and won't play. Our cover corners suck. Manningham is back. WE won't put any pressure on Henning. It's in the Big House. More than 3 TD's.
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  5. 10-19-06 02:38 PM #5
    maritime
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    Michigan's run defense has been incredible so far this season. They're only giving up 32 rushing yards per game. I went back as far as 2000 and the best rushing defense over that span was 60 yards per game. To only be giving up about half of that per game means only one thing to me....and that is that Michigan is going to either start giving up a lot more rushing yards than they have been, or they are going to be the best rushing defense of pretty much all time.

    Doing the math, Michigan would have to give up about 100 rushing yards per game for their last 5 games to end up with only 60 yards per game average at end of season. And 60 yards per game is pretty damn good since no team in the past 6 years has been better than that.

    Looking at Michigan's remaining schedule I would say that Iowa, OSU, and maybe Northwestern are going to be able to run better than other teams have faired so far. I can't see Michigan continuing this dominance of the running game. This is why I like Iowa plus the points in this one.


    (here's another number that has nowhere to go but up....Rutgers currently has lowest points given up per game in division 1 at 8.3....talk about due to give it up over their remaining games...)
    Last edited by maritime; 10-19-06 at 02:45 PM.
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  6. 10-19-06 05:43 PM #6
    pags11
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    not betting against Michigan here...
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  7. 10-19-06 09:54 PM #7
    hawk 5
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    Don't get it maritime, Mich hasn't let anybody run against them all year so to avoid a world record they'll start letting teams rack up 150 yards a game starting with Iowa? Is that right?
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  8. 10-20-06 04:33 AM #8
    pags11
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    If I was going to eye Iowa, I'd have to have at least two TD's to think about it...this one screams of no play...
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  9. 10-20-06 12:51 PM #9
    maritime
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawk 5
    Don't get it maritime, Mich hasn't let anybody run against them all year so to avoid a world record they'll start letting teams rack up 150 yards a game starting with Iowa? Is that right?

    No. But I like the law of averages in this case. There is no way Michigan will end season only giving up 32yards per game rushing. I think they'll end up closer to 60 per game. And if I'm right that means some opponents are going to have success running on them the next few games. I doubt it will be Indiana or Ball St. So, I expect Iowa & OSU to have success.
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  10. 10-20-06 07:03 PM #10
    hawk 5
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    You have a point, sorry. By the way Manningham will not play this weekend. Mich should still cover but by less than I had thought.
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  11. 10-20-06 07:05 PM #11
    hawk 5
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    Consider that I'm still pissed off at the Iowa- Ind game.
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  12. 10-21-06 01:06 AM #12
    pags11
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    maybe this thing creeps over 14 by kickoff...am watching the Mich tape from last week...they're pretty impressive...
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  13. 10-21-06 01:10 AM #13
    hawk 5
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    pags, I think they are the best team in the nation when manningham is playing.
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  14. 10-22-06 09:46 AM #14
    BuddyBear
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    Well they were covering for about 57 minutes of the game......
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  15. 10-22-06 11:07 AM #15
    Razz
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    Terrible beat for Iowa backers. The Hawkeyes were the better team all day, and that call at the end was pathetic.
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  16. 10-22-06 03:35 PM #16
    hawk 5
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    Hawks showed up today. Wish They played this hard all year.
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