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Week 4/5 games I am looking at, need input.
NCAA:
Minn @ Iowa -6.5
Clemson -10 @ BC
Arkansas @ TAMU -13.5
ASU @ CAL -2
Miami Ohio -6 @ Akron
Houston -4 @ Rice
NFL
Carolina @ ATL -7.5
Seattle -2.5 @ St. Louis
Giants @ Philly -3
I am avoiding listing my leans to avoid bias. Would love any input on any of these games, especially any local knowledge.
At the moment, I was leaning the other way.Originally Posted by CanuckG
However, using the crap that I have accumulated in my head over the years about Seattle on the road - makes me not want to back them.
This is probably my toughest call of the week, currently.
Thanks!
Of your games, I am tempted by Seattle and the Giants but not doing anything yet. Seattle with not much of an offense but definitely hard-nosed on defense and of course, they have the refs on their side, at least at home with that crew last night.
I am seeking out 'strong' teams Vs. 'bad' teams for 2 team/points teasers. So far this week, I have:
Atlanta -1
Houston -5
Given the officiating and what has happened so far, if my dog Wally could throw a dart, I would just use him. N.O. has reminded me -- twice -- this year, after a 10 year hiatus from betting, that it's not a good idea to pin one 'best idea' on multiple teasers, though I haven't done horribly this year.
Last week was the first I've seen of Cam Newton and the Carolina offense in the NFL. Combined with their D, they looked pretty horrendous. I like betting against horrendous -- assuming that any logic still applies in the NFL -- and have no problem laying -1 on Atlanta in that game, at home.
Taking Houston -5 is a little bit more of a wildcard maybe, but they are billed as maybe the strongest team in the NFL, they are at home, Tenn.'s D has been weak and I don't believe that Jake Locker has gotten over the confidence hump yet, though I am a fan of his and he had a big game against Detroit. CJ appears to be just another RB now, even though it is 'not his fault.' Not quick + not big = not good.
So, two team teaser for me is all I see right now but I'll probably talk myself into more as the week goes on.
You are so gonna get buried the way you are approaching this.
Iowa is the side to play vs Minnesota
Giants ML looking pretty good. damn philly sux, but as soon as I take a shot on it they'll show up against their rivals.
Man, Iowa has looked horrendous. Can't believe anyone can favor them over anyone by a TD.
Just quickly glancing at this, is there a way you can tease for less points, and maybe getting better numbers in those games? -1 and -5 isn't ideal.
why will he get buried? i actually think atl is rock solid in teasers, i prob wouldnt tease hou but not because they wont cover just principle....panthers offense has really struggled badly, even more so if you throw out the saints gm which is easy to do considering how bad n.o. d is, not sure how the hell they get it right against a very good atl d in the toughest place to get a W in the nfl right now...im a fav/dog type teaser guy myself so im thinking more like atl-1.5 and stl +8.5...
People that know nothing about college football, as obviously that is the case here with the poster who suggested Iowa as a pick to take.
I think that was with the 6.5 points .... after watching Carolina last week, I'm comfortable with the -1 and probably don't want to try for better than the -5 with the worse odds.
Maybe I am short selling Tenn. but they sure looked bad a few weeks ago against a Charger team that was just embarrassed at home. In the Detroit game, their defense was not great and they scored a lot of their points on unusual plays and turnovers. Jake is still inexperienced and I think he can go in the tank if he is rattled early in the game. So the Houston -5 at home doesn't seem too scary to me. Of course, I loved N.O. -2.5 against K.C. last week too.
Someone mentioned getting buried; I'm a very small bettor because .... it is gambling. I do my real speculating via the stock market, where if you play small enough, you can at least come back later and win after being wrong initially. In sports betting, it's all or nothing and really hard to beat in the long run.
CD, a cursory look at the Minn/Iowa game would make one believe why is Minn getting points. Iowa struggled in all four games so far and betting the dog in the big 10 this year seems to be a very good idea. If I played the game I would take Minn, but then again why is that line so high. Seems a little fishy, I would still take the points my friend. Good luck.
Love Arkansas +13.5......Yeah, Arkansas has been a joke so far but Tyler Wilson alone should not be given 13.5 against a decent squad
I could be wrong, and Arkansas gets thrashed, but my gut tells me they hang in there
Well unless they give up they will definitely put points on the board I think that is a given, that guy can score almost at will. I believe taking the dog and or the over might be a good play. But, we are guessing in the long run, all of us.
Over should be a good play as well.....Really just guessing on if Arkansas gave up 100% or just 75% as a team
Maybe a small parlay or small teaser on both. I hate like hell to play both of them especially in college, but teasing the points up to about 17 and the total down boy that sounds tempting.
Actually about 20.
Iowa plays tough and bounces back at home against MN. My 2cGL
MINNESOTA is my top CFB play of the week. I actually played them +7 -124, but +6.5 should still be OK.
see so many people on minnesota. makes me worry. is iowa really that bad now? i'd probably look closely into the iowa end here (i.e. what is going on at iowa?, and i think coach can get them somewhat back on track quickly) . i probably go NO PLAY here but minnesota LEAN. has iowa killed big10 roadkill (indiana, minnesota in particular) at home in past years?
ark (almost 100% dependent on ark psyche i think... probably very bad, bankrupt coach and unbelievably underachievement so far with very high NFL QB pick may completely demoralized, so i lean TAM). note, i like so many other bounceback (plug the dykes) teams over arkansas right now.
clemson - not much opinion. they should beat spread comfortably, but my gut says it'll be challenging. BC seems scrappy even when they have mediocre teams.
ASU great pick. Cal will be starting to check out mentally very soon. huge zach maynard fan from buffalo/turner gill days but it's not to be.
akron is a great pick. some say wrong team favoured. miami-ohio isn't going to improve their performance at jacked up akron. and given where akron's been i don't see some letdown here. great veteran HC and some co-ordinators.
houston-rice = no idea. i'd pound the under though as i'm not sure houston can score this year. maybe that leads to taking rice as ATS. i like the UNDER but i've been burning money this year on Rice Unders.
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