1. 09-21-12 01:06 PM #1
    CapperGuy
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    Leaning on Baylor ML

    I might take the Baylor Bears on the ML tonight, not sure as of yet. I saw both of ULM's games this morning and I'm convinced that they are not a very good team. Their dual threat qb may pose some problems for Baylor's defense and all the risks ULM's coach takes might hurt them in this game if they don't convert especially with their special teams issues. Baylor's defense is fast and athletic but vulnerable to choking in the secondary and allowing big plays. With that being said I like Balyor's starting QB Nick Florence, I believe their offense is pounding on all cylinders once again this year. If anything, this will either be a complete rout for Baylor if they start out fast or it may be a back and forth shootout, if that's the case I still like my chances with Baylor. I'm about to watch the Baylor games again, if I feel comfortable I'll probably unload on them for sure later on. I actually think because of the close games ULM had against two SEC teams on the road that they are being hyped, hence we get a better value on Baylor. Auburn is a team that have a lot of issues on both sides of the ball and their defense is not what people believe it to be, they had a hard time adjusting to Kolton Browning's big play capabilities in the fourth quarter and allowed big time 4th down conversions which ultimately led to two touchdowns forcing the game into overtime. Arkansas had solid control over ULM a couple weeks ago, but when Tyler Wilson went down the team collapsed as a whole. Arkansas lost that game themselves, I didn't really see anything exemplary from ULM that makes me believe they'll be able to keep pace against Baylor tonight. Arthur Briles has plenty of video to figure out the strengths and weaknesses on the ULM side and I believe he is the better coach tonight as well which plays a huge factor in my decision making. I would also like to add that the veteran defensive coordinator for Baylor, Phil Bennet, will do a great job with the personnel he has available to him in making things difficult for Kolton Browning.
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  2. 09-21-12 01:11 PM #2
    eatdarich
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    Well written......I jumped on baylor at -7 yesterday....might take baylor -14 1/2 +220 on the alter. spread.....thoughts?
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  3. 09-21-12 01:16 PM #3
    CapperGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by eatdarich View Post
    Well written......I jumped on baylor at -7 yesterday....might take baylor -14 1/2 +280 on the alter. spread.....thoughts?
    Baylor -7 seems pretty solid! I think it has a very probability of hitting BOL! The reverse line has some value as well because Baylor will put up points, if ULM can't keep up or fall behind two scores they'll be forced to change their gameplan which may dig them deeper in the hole.
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  4. 09-21-12 01:17 PM #4
    eatdarich
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    Thanks, I just pulled the plug and went small on the reverse line.

    BOL and I enjoy your threads/comments!!!
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  5. 09-21-12 01:28 PM #5
    CapperGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by eatdarich View Post
    Thanks, I just pulled the plug and went small on the reverse line.

    BOL and I enjoy your threads/comments!!!
    Thanks! GL to you wager tonight. I just saw the ML and spread get steamed by a few well respected sports investors so I decided to pull the trigger to win 1K on the ML -340. I had to get it online, all the books here have them at -375 or higher. Might take them for more in a few hours, we'll see how the lines continue to shift. Lets get this!
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  6. 09-21-12 01:51 PM #6
    TallAzCrowe
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    Just jumped to -9.5 on my local, -360ML, got in at -7 couple hrs ago. Hope to see some $ in my acct after work. Lets cash in on that!!!
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  7. 09-21-12 04:40 PM #7
    CapperGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TallAzCrowe View Post
    Just jumped to -9.5 on my local, -360ML, got in at -7 couple hrs ago. Hope to see some $ in my acct after work. Lets cash in on that!!!
    GL! Moneyline seems to be dropping
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  8. 09-21-12 04:57 PM #8
    diehardfan
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    People seem to be loading on ULM now. My book has gone from Baylor -9.5 to -8.5.

    ULM has played the tougher teams and are playing with confidence. It's the biggest home game for ULM in decades. I do believe Baylor is the better team, but I wouldn't be surprised to see ULM cover. I like the Baylor ML though.
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  9. 09-21-12 05:05 PM #9
    CapperGuy
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    Yea I'm not touching the spread simply because Baylor's D is unreliable especially if they can't contain Browning so the ML is definitely a smarter play. BOL
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  10. 09-21-12 05:12 PM #10
    jbart28
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    Sprinkling a little on Baylor ML. BOL everyone
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  11. 09-21-12 05:20 PM #11
    nic9212
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    On Baylor ML BOL
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  12. 09-21-12 05:30 PM #12
    diehardfan
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    BOL
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  13. 09-21-12 06:42 PM #13
    Resler
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    Great quality write up!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by CapperGuy View Post
    I might take the Baylor Bears on the ML tonight, not sure as of yet. I saw both of ULM's games this morning and I'm convinced that they are not a very good team. Their dual threat qb may pose some problems for Baylor's defense and all the risks ULM's coach takes might hurt them in this game if they don't convert especially with their special teams issues. Baylor's defense is fast and athletic but vulnerable to choking in the secondary and allowing big plays. With that being said I like Balyor's starting QB Nick Florence, I believe their offense is pounding on all cylinders once again this year. If anything, this will either be a complete rout for Baylor if they start out fast or it may be a back and forth shootout, if that's the case I still like my chances with Baylor. I'm about to watch the Baylor games again, if I feel comfortable I'll probably unload on them for sure later on. I actually think because of the close games ULM had against two SEC teams on the road that they are being hyped, hence we get a better value on Baylor. Auburn is a team that have a lot of issues on both sides of the ball and their defense is not what people believe it to be, they had a hard time adjusting to Kolton Browning's big play capabilities in the fourth quarter and allowed big time 4th down conversions which ultimately led to two touchdowns forcing the game into overtime. Arkansas had solid control over ULM a couple weeks ago, but when Tyler Wilson went down the team collapsed as a whole. Arkansas lost that game themselves, I didn't really see anything exemplary from ULM that makes me believe they'll be able to keep pace against Baylor tonight. Arthur Briles has plenty of video to figure out the strengths and weaknesses on the ULM side and I believe he is the better coach tonight as well which plays a huge factor in my decision making. I would also like to add that the veteran defensive coordinator for Baylor, Phil Bennet, will do a great job with the personnel he has available to him in making things difficult for Kolton Browning.
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  14. 09-21-12 07:01 PM #14
    CapperGuy
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    Took Baylor for another 5k! Lets get this
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  15. 09-21-12 07:05 PM #15
    playr101
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    GL ... on it as well..

    -playr101
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  16. 09-21-12 07:36 PM #16
    Resler
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    WTF is this bull shit offense QB hand off throw the ball.
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  17. 09-21-12 07:42 PM #17
    CapperGuy
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    2 turnovers= 2 TD's not good so far, but this one is far from over
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  18. 09-21-12 07:46 PM #18
    Resler
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    Yeah, going to be a shootout I think.
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  19. 09-21-12 08:02 PM #19
    CapperGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Resler View Post
    Yeah, going to be a shootout I think.
    This is another classic Baylor shootout! Reminds me of the Washington/Baylor game of last year. They can't afford anymore turnovers
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  20. 09-21-12 08:28 PM #20
    Resler
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    Baylor really struggles making simple tackles. They don't wrap anyone up.
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  21. 09-21-12 08:35 PM #21
    paco
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    Looks good now...
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  22. 09-21-12 08:44 PM #22
    CapperGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    Looks good now...
    It's a flat out shootout, even when they were down this game can swing either way. The turnovers will dictate who will win imo! Baylor are definitely more talented on the offensive side of the ball so lets hope they continue scoring everytime they have possession.
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  23. 09-21-12 08:45 PM #23
    sneakerhead
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    Capper, you think things will slow down second half?
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  24. 09-21-12 08:48 PM #24
    CapperGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by sneakerhead View Post
    Capper, you think things will slow down second half?
    I doubt it to be honest, both defenses look pathetic to me.
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  25. 09-21-12 08:52 PM #25
    Resler
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    Completely agree. I am shocked ULM is sticking with man coverage and I am encouraged that Baylor is finally getting pressure on the QB.

    Quote Originally Posted by CapperGuy View Post
    I doubt it to be honest, both defenses look pathetic to me.
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  26. 09-21-12 09:05 PM #26
    CapperGuy
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    ULM are in some serious trouble if they continue to play the man coverage their corners are jut not good enough to keep up with the WR's of Baylor. As long as we don't turn it over we should be just fine
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  27. 09-21-12 09:19 PM #27
    CapperGuy
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    Why would they not go for 4th down? That punt might come back to haunt them
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  28. 09-21-12 09:48 PM #28
    CapperGuy
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    A FG does us zero good in this game, terrible redzone possession by Baylor
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  29. 09-21-12 09:59 PM #29
    Philmill
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    Bought this game down to -6............. Baylors D has to make some stops...!
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  30. 09-21-12 10:02 PM #30
    CapperGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philmill View Post
    Bought this game down to -6............. Baylors D has to make some stops...!
    Baylor have no defense, they did a horrible job in the redzone last go around and settled for a score that does them no good. Pretty horrible coaching decision!
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  31. 09-21-12 10:03 PM #31
    Resler
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    No stops happening. Had them on 3rd and 7 like 4 times and could stop them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philmill View Post
    Bought this game down to -6............. Baylors D has to make some stops...!
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  32. 09-21-12 10:08 PM #32
    CapperGuy
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    #3 has dropped too many passes tonight
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  33. 09-21-12 10:16 PM #33
    nic9212
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    40-35 game is a nail bitter
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  34. 09-21-12 10:21 PM #34
    Resler
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    Yeah, I don't see how they give up first down on every 3rd and long. That guy was wide open for a 41 yard pick up. FUMBLE FUMBLE woohoo.
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  35. 09-21-12 10:22 PM #35
    CapperGuy
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    Need Baylor to put the chokehold now and finish them off!
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