[mebaran]

I'm afraid to bombard him with plays up front, so I'm doing a few today, and then more near game day.

Just for the record, these are the most correlated, no?

MASSACHUSETTS	+46½-110	o56-110	46.5	56	0.830357
FLORIDA atl	+43½-110	o53-110	43.5	53	0.820755
IDAHO	+42½-110	o54½-110	42.5	54.5	0.779817
SOUTH alabama	+31½-110	o50-110	31.5	50	0.63
UAB	+33½-110	o54½-110	33.5	54.5	0.614679
NEW	33-110	o62-110	33	62	0.532258
NORTH texas	28-110	o55½-110	28	55.5	0.504505
WAKEFOREST	+26½-110	o54-110	26.5	54	0.490741
E Michigan	+23½-110	o50½-110	23.5	50.5	0.465347

[mebaran]

Table is sorted by last column (spread/total)

[Romanov]

Yes. Are you playing both sides with this single local?

[nvrlose37]

Isn't under and dog the way to go in correlated parlays?

[yisman]

no the best way to go is the biggest favorites and the over

[mebaran]

Just playing favorites and overs, I think both sides would be overkill with this local. The face overs look better anyways..

[Romanov]

Agreed. I was going to say you should try and find another local to bet the dog/unders.

I just tried to place one of these with my book and it is accepted so ill be tagging along on these this weekend. I always assumed this guy knew what a cor parlay was... Guess not

[mebaran]

What makes it more sweet is that its someone who took a ton of money from me playing cards when we were younger

[Romanov]

I'm trying to figure out how to do this without drawing attention to myself. I've never played parlays with this guy before. He is an odd book. He only posts lines on Saturdays so I will have to bet all of these on one day. I'm going to mix in my usual straight plays (see my cfb thread) but I don't know if that will hide it well enough.

[yisman]

It depends how clueless he is.

[Romanov]

Looking at the past 2 weeks of this season, the record for correlated parlays assuming a 50% spread to total ratio would be-

Week 1:

Fav/Over = 1-7
Dog/Under = 4-4

Week 2:

Fav/Over = 0-2
Dog/Under = 1-1

Total, getting 13:5 on these betting $100 a piece:

Fav/Over = -$640
Dog/Under = +$800

To mitigate risk we should bet both sides but Idk if I will be able to do that. Any theories as to why we are seeing such a disparity? It will take a leap of faith to chalk that up to random variation on the fav/over side of things and to ONLY bet those this weekend.

Out of 10 plays (which we would have had in the first 2 weeks) you would expect to hit around 3 of them. I don't know the standard dev nor do I care to think about it right now but hitting 5 on one side and hitting only 1 on the other does not seem too outrageous

[Romanov]

Meberan-

Im going to bet the side that my book shades furthest from the Pinny line. This will give a little more EV and will help disguise it by mixing up dogs n faves. Your thoughts?

[mebaran]

Not sure. If you trust that pinny is the most accurate, then maybe. I picked only the spreads that were above 35. From my research, that is a factor that helps the fave/over