1. #1
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    2012 RLM Thread

    I've been betting college football using only RLM criteria for three years now and have had winning seasons each year.

    I recall there being an RLM thread last year that was +units at the end of the year, so we'll be trying to hit that mark again in 2012.

    Criteria that I have found to be successful is as follows:

    --- Home teams must have at least a 1.5 point movement.
    --- Away teams must have at least a 2 point movement.
    --- Any spread over 28 points must cross over a key number (28, 31, 35, 42 are the ones I look for).
    --- RLM is only considered if there is <= 40% of the action on that side.
    --- I use (near) closing numbers to make plays


    I've been using sportsinsight to get these numbers. I will continue to use that as my baseline, but will keep track of SBR percentages as well.

    From what I saw, there were no RLM plays in week 1.




    Week Record Units
    Week 1 2-0 +2.0u
    YTD 2-0 +2.0u
    Last edited by EXhoosier10; 09-04-12 at 07:27 PM. Reason: Added Vanderbilt and UTEP plays for week 1 per post #8

  2. #2
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541


  3. #3
    geauxtac1911
    geauxtac1911's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-10-10
    Posts: 150
    Betpoints: 2324

    Def going to follow this...buddy of mine did pretty good last year betting strictly on RLM. I was too hard headed to follow. Not this year!

  4. #4
    carter81
    carter81's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-12
    Posts: 20


  5. #5
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Watchlist for Week of 9/6 - 9/8
    Missouri opened at +3.5, currently +1.5 (24%)
    Central Michigan opened, +24 currently +21.5 (21%)
    Arizona opened +13.5, currently +11 (10%)

  6. #6
    BlacK_HazE
    #FEARtheSPEAR
    BlacK_HazE's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-22-12
    Posts: 363

    There were multiple games that had reverse line movement (South carolina vs vandy) and I believe if I'm not mistaken Boise vs MSU as well. And that wasn't even including Saturday.. as far as I know they went undefeated

  7. #7
    venture
    venture's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-25-09
    Posts: 1,158

    Was UTEP a play opened at 31 went to 29.5 (dont know what it closed at) 12% was on it at one point (agien dont know what closed at)

  8. #8
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    "
    Attached Images  

  9. #9
    rocket31
    rocket31's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-12
    Posts: 34
    Betpoints: 608

    Okie State lined dropped to -11

  10. #10
    rofacapper
    rofacapper's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-22-10
    Posts: 119
    Betpoints: 697

    Did quite well with this last year after getting burned the year before. I like your guidelines, I'll be with you on them.

  11. #11
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Doesn't look like either of the Thursday or Friday games are going to be a play in this thread

  12. #12
    remetta2
    remetta2's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-17-10
    Posts: 42
    Betpoints: 78

    Can anyone suggest where would I find statistics about opening line, % bet on each team and how the line has moved? I am interested to monitor this for a while as a strategy.

    thanks,
    Rem

  13. #13
    geauxtac1911
    geauxtac1911's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-10-10
    Posts: 150
    Betpoints: 2324

  14. #14
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Plays for tomorrow looking like:
    Missouri +2
    Cent. Michigan +19.5
    Arizona +10.5
    if Western Kentucky gets to 37.5, I'd play for 1/2 as it's still only 2 points of a 40 point spread, meaning it's somewhat insignificant, all things considered.

    I'll check in again tomorrow morning and again nearer to game time (All four of these games are 2:30pm central time or later)

  15. #15
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Going to go ahead and book the following, all for the usual 1u

    Missouri +1.5 -103
    Central Michigan +20 -107
    Arizona +11.5 -110

  16. #16
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Quote Originally Posted by EXhoosier10 View Post
    Going to go ahead and book the following, all for the usual 1u

    Missouri +1.5 -103
    Central Michigan +20 -107
    Arizona +11.5 -110
    Bovada changes every f'in time I log in. new lines and books are noted. Also forgot to mention that I play home RLM to win 1.25u, away RLM to win only 1u.

    OFFICIAL PLAYS
    Arizona +11 -105 (BOVADA) -- plays at home, so to win 1.25u
    Missouri +1.5 -103 (5dimes) -- plays at home, so to win 1.25u
    Central Michigan +20 -108 (5dimes) -- plays at home, so to win 1.25u

  17. #17
    dshaffe4
    dshaffe4's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-11
    Posts: 207
    Betpoints: 1680

    Booked all 3 my dude. This is my first year trying out this RLM in college and NFL. It should make us some decent cash this year, Good Luck to you man!

  18. #18
    CappinTerp
    CappinTerp's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 9,648
    Betpoints: 1673

    I like the Arizona play.! Good luck on all.

  19. #19
    dredmahawkus
    dredmahawkus's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-26-09
    Posts: 1,803
    Betpoints: 19

    RLM in ncaab last year was killing it! Like up close to 50 units at one point. Then the last month of the season almost every single one lost and ended I think down for the year.

  20. #20
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Quote Originally Posted by CappinTerp View Post
    I like the Arizona play.! Good luck on all.
    Thanks, Terp. Units on college football are smaller for me than for MLB, so this stuff is more of just action for me. Do you have a season long thread going for football?

  21. #21
    dredmahawkus
    dredmahawkus's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-26-09
    Posts: 1,803
    Betpoints: 19

    .......

  22. #22
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Reasons why it's necessary to look at lines as close to gametime as possible...
    games not made, but should have been played
    New Hampshire +13 (A)
    Central Florida +15 (A)
    Maryland +8 (A)
    Tulane +21.5 (A)

    More possible plays
    2:30 CT - Syracuse +24.5 (Home, 1.5 points)

  23. #23
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Week 2 (going forward, we'll assume -110 on every line for ease of record keeping):
    New Hampshire +13 (A) - L
    Central Florida -- dont see any shops hitting +15, so no play here
    Maryland +8 (A) - W
    Tulane +21.5 (A) - L
    Syracuse +24.5 (H) - W (v ranked #2)
    Arizona +11 (H) - W (v ranked #16)
    Missouri +1.5 (H) - L (v ranked #7)
    Central Michigan +20 (H) - L (v ranked #11)

    Week 2 - 3-4 -1.4u

    I may put a filter on ignoring RLM when an unranked team plays a top 10 or 15 team, so I'll be keeping track of that in here as well. Any help would be appreciated.

  24. #24
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390





    Week Record Units
    Week 1 2-0 +2.0u
    Week 2 3-4 -1.4u
    YTD 5-4 +0.6u

  25. #25
    gojetsgomoxies
    gojetsgomoxies's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-12
    Posts: 4,222
    Betpoints: 8519

    Thx for this thread..

    Would love to track what games this board gets aggressively arrogant towards.... Yesterday would be pro nebraska and negative Arizona, both of which were losing bets.. Any other games come to mind?

  26. #26
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    Thx for this thread..

    Would love to track what games this board gets aggressively arrogant towards.... Yesterday would be pro nebraska and negative Arizona, both of which were losing bets.. Any other games come to mind?
    Honestly I don't follow / watch any college football, let alone read the rest of the threads.

  27. #27
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Keep an eye out for Rutgers on Thursday and UNLV on Friday. lines are moving

  28. #28
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Rutgers (Thurs) has moved 2 points to +7.5, but has > 40% on their side.
    UNLV (Fri) has moved 3 points to +8.5, but like Rutgers, has >40% on their side.

    Check back around 6pm on Thursday and 8pm on Friday for plays.

  29. #29
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Rutgers is going to be a no play due to there being a 50/50 split on the action

  30. #30
    matelionis
    matelionis's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-27-09
    Posts: 212
    Betpoints: 132

    9/15 - NCAA RLM

    Pitt +10
    Cal +16.5
    SMU +12.5
    Ole Miss +9.5

  31. #31
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    No play on UNLV as they are > 40% on their side.

  32. #32
    nrok2118
    nrok2118's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-10-12
    Posts: 1,182
    Betpoints: 635

    I just ran through and I got

    Boston College
    SMU
    Pitt U
    North Carolina

  33. #33
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Thanks for the help matelionis and nrok.

    BC needs 2 points since they're on the road, and I'm only seeing 1 or 1.5. +2.5 is when it becomes a play.
    SMU is a play at +10.5.
    Pitt at +10 is a play

    Will get to later games as they approach.

  34. #34
    EXhoosier10
    EXhoosier10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-06-09
    Posts: 3,122
    Betpoints: 4390

    Heading out for the afternoon, most likely won't be back to post the rest of the plays.

    Here are the games that need to be watched
    SMU
    East Carolina
    Arizona State
    Troy
    Utah

    today everyone

  35. #35
    matelionis
    matelionis's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-27-09
    Posts: 212
    Betpoints: 132

    You missed PITT and CAL

1234 Last
Top