[DerekMadden]

Week 2 = overreaction week. Yes Pitt lost to a DII team, doesn't mean they are going to go winless this year.

Returning Starters in 2012 from Phil Steel
Team - offense-defense-st-total-conf

Pittsburgh

8*

5

2

15

BIG EAST

Cincinnati

4

6

2

12

BIG EAST

Pitt is returning their QB, and 7 other starting offensive players.
Cincy is returning just 4 offensive players and one is NOT their QB.

Pitt didn't have a hard time in their loss to Youngstown St. by way of scoring
Pitt's 2 turnovers (first week follies I call them) and Pitt's defense that lost the game.

Youngstown state returned 10 STARTERS ON OFFENSE!

Cincy is returning just 4. Against Pitt's 5 on Defense.

Cincy will also have their own Week 1 hiccups, (penalties, dropped passes, fumbles, etc.)

This has the makings of a LOW SCORING game.

I'd take the under first, then I'd take Pitt.

The Plays-

Under for 2 units
Pitt +3.5 1 unit
Pitt ML - .5 unit


I posted this in somebody else's thread and decided I'd make my own out of it to see what people thought
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...l#post15891562

[BetterYetAmazing]

Cincy isn't returning its starting qb but Munchie is no slouch, he did start 3 or 4 games last year when Zach went down and I believe he only lost one I I remember correctly.
BOL

[Degenerate Life]

Pitt also had a couple of players suspended for that game that will be in the mix. The mistakes they made are correctable, fumbles, dropped passes, blown assignments you never know what your gonna get with Pitt. Cincy also doesn't have a lot of experience on offense. Not touching this one myself but gl to those that do.

[Romanov]

With almost 70% on Cinci, why not wait for the line to move up to get a better number? It is already at +4

[DerekMadden]

With almost 70% on Cinci, why not wait for the line to move up to get a better number? It is already at +4

Not saying not to do it, in fact I haven't even made the pick yet. I'll wait as long as I have to. This line is only going up.

Vegas will make a killing on this game.

[DerekMadden]

Vegas is going to make a shit-ton if this hits!

[isotopes]

Seriously, Pitt lost to a division II school by 14 points at home. You are calling this a week 2 overreaction? I mean maybe if you watched Michigan State almost lose at home and have no offense and think they can't score that is an over reaction, but Pitt losing to a division II school can not be more telling. Almost all the favs won the ML's week 1, while this doesn't always hold true, I don't care if Cinci returned 0 starters and were starting all freshmen, losing to a Division II school at home means that your god aweful.

GL, I'm just shocked at this thread. Your over thinking it, they didn't just lose to a division II school but they lost to a division II school that has never beat a Division I school ever, by 14 points, and at home. Just saying trying to convince yourself that Pitt is good enough to bet on is just nuts.

[Romanov]

Not saying not to do it, in fact I haven't even made the pick yet. I'll wait as long as I have to. This line is only going up.

Vegas will make a killing on this game.

Pal you are full of chit. This is from your original post:

The Plays-

Under for 2 units
Pitt +3.5 1 unit
Pitt ML - .5 unit

You already made the plays or you were air-betting and now you are going to say you are waiting to get a better number.

Rube

[grind4moneyz]

Vegas is going to make a shit-ton if this hits!

I saw this also. The line has only moved .5 points with 86% of Public on the home fav?

[fishmonger]

Where you get that chart from? I used to get that from a site but they no longer have it.

[grind4moneyz]

Where you get that chart from? I used to get that from a site but they no longer have it.

http://www.thespread.com/

[paranoyd androyd]

does blue always mean home team and red road?

[fishmonger]

Yes

[DerekMadden]

Pal you are full of chit. This is from your original post:



You already made the plays or you were air-betting and now you are going to say you are waiting to get a better number.

Rube

lmfao so, I can't say the plays "as of now"?

my goodness. If I want to be on this side now I have to make the bet now? fukk off dude.

[Romanov]

lmfao so, I can't say the plays "as of now"?

my goodness. If I want to be on this side now I have to make the bet now? fukk off dude.

Where did you say "as of now"?

[DerekMadden]

once again I didn't realize people on this forum would read literally into things.

my apologies.

let me rephrase it...

"the plays - IF I HAD TO MAKE THEM RIGHT NOW"




SERIOUSLY. Why are people dumb? You really think I would take +3.5 when the number is going up?

It's only fukking Tuesday. The game is 2 days away!


Why the HELL would I pull the trigger now?????

[Romanov]

Call it a lean then, and do not preface it with "the plays" because then that would logically make people think they are the plays. Dumb, I know, but do us all a favor oh holy intellect.

And to answer your question, people make plays when there is value to be had. If you thought the correct line was Pitt +1, then you should hammer it today, because if you are right the line would move to +1. People make plays months in advance.

[DerekMadden]

Call it a lean then, and do not preface it with "the plays" because then that would logically make people think they are the plays. Dumb, I know, but do us all a favor oh holy intellect.

And to answer your question, people make plays when there is value to be had. If you thought the correct line was Pitt +1, then you should hammer it today, because if you are right the line would move to +1. People make plays months in advance.

yes, master

[Hilljacademics]

[LionsFTW]

I think your best play is the under. I can't see either team scoring more then 21 points.

[DerekMadden]

I think your best play is the under. I can't see either team scoring more then 21 points.

The Under is my number 1 play here. Will probably go bigger than just 2 units on it.

[texhooper]

you've been a member here since january of 2011. if you're gonna post something here as a play, then you've already bet on it. come on dude, you know that.

[DerekMadden]

The thread I posted literally 20 minutes ago shows the timestamp of my plays.

[Gee]

Derekmadden got buried. What an idiot.

[DerekMadden]

Derekmadden got buried. What an idiot.

got?

[stevenash]

Team	Open	Sportsbook	Hilton	Caesars	MGM	Stations	Offshore	Bookmaker	Side	Money	Total
09/06/2012 8:00 PM EDT
301 PITTSBURGH	49	50	50	50	49.5	50	50	50	20%	35%	58%
302 CINCINNATI U	-3.5 -05	-5	-6	-5.5	-5	-5.5	-4.5 -05	-6	80%	65%	42%

[stevenash]

I think your best play is the under. I can't see either team scoring more then 21 points.

I agree

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Derekmadden got buried. What an idiot.

Derek, it ain't that easy making a prediction around here, is it? I think an embarrassed Pitt team is the play too. The game under the belt has to help. Good luck, kid.

[tenpinxx]

just my 2 cents but i think cinn - blows em out

gl with your plays

[stevenash]

Pitt is garbage

[rocket31]

[stevenash]

pure garbage

[greenhippo]

[stevenash]

smh @ that last play before the half.

WTF was that?

[stevenash]

absolute garbage