1. 11-25-12 07:02 PM #421
    Smutbucket
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    Thread Total YTD:
    119-82-8
    +33.76 units
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  2. 11-27-12 11:07 PM #422
    Smutbucket
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    Whatup.
    This what I got so far for this weekend.....





    Ncaa Week 14. Championship Week.
    Oklahoma St -4 (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit
    6 pt Teaser. Oklahoma -1 and Alabama -1.5. Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
    Nebraska -2.5 (-135) Risking 2.7 units to win 2 units




    NFL Week 13.
    6 pt Teaser. Saints +9.5 and 49ers -1.5. Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Cincinnati -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Colts +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit


    gonna probly add some on bama without the tease....just think line is gonna move down so I figure wait and maybe snag at 6....Id love to get 6.....

    anyone else see anythang worth pointing out in these games or edges in others?
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  3. 11-28-12 12:49 AM #423
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smutbucket View Post
    Oklahoma St -4 (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit

    anyone else see anythang worth pointing out in these games or edges in others?
    I'm not a fan of this one. I think that as unlikely as it sounds, coming off the Bedlam loss, the Cowboys are over-confident coming into this game. In their minds, Oklahoma got lucky in pulling off the comeback, but it's actually the second big game this year where the Cowboys couldn't stop a late drive when they had a lead (Texas went 75 yards in 2 minutes to score with 30 seconds left). The one thing that I noticed about this team early in the year that's still often true, is that they don't tackle well. They can break up passes, and stop the run at the LOS, but in the open field, they don't get the job done.

    Despite OK State absolutely dominating Baylor for years, this line is the lowest it's been in a while. I think the -4 is highly suspicious. I'm not necessarily advocating a play on Baylor, but I think this is going to be a tough game for the Cowboys.
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  4. 11-28-12 02:59 AM #424
    Smutbucket
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    baylor won a lot of the last couple big games by winning big in the turnover margin, although they arent a team over the last couple years that are technically sound in that department, although oklahoma st has been (+21 in 2011, +12 in 2010, and has struggled in this area this year (-4), Im predicting oklahoma st capitalizes on this and baylor regresses to its norm (in their matchup in 2011, okl st won the turnover margin at +4, and, +2 in 2010) oklahoma state wins the turnover margin by a good +2 and win the game by atleast 7....is how I got it capped out.....
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  5. 11-28-12 12:01 PM #425
    suicidekings
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    Baylor's improved TO margin is the product of it being introduced to their practices part way through the season, actually copying the OK State model. They're trying to rip the ball out every time they get the chance, understanding that if they can get a couple of extra stops/takeaways, they can lean on their offense to win. Over the last four weeks, that practice has started to pay dividends and the Baylor defense is starting to gain confidence in their ability to generate takeaways.
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  6. 11-29-12 07:23 AM #426
    Smutbucket
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    Betting Review:

    NCAAF -
    Week 1 : 8-2 +5.25 units
    Week 2 : 1-1-1 -.1 units
    Week 3 : 1-4-1 -4.6 units
    Week 4 : 4-1 +4.3 units
    Week 5 : 4-2-1 +1.8 units
    Week 6 : 7-3 +4.85 units
    Week 7 : 5-7-1 +.95 units
    Week 8 : 8-2 +7.3 unit
    Week 9 : 5-6-1 -3.1 units
    week 10: 6-4 + .3 units
    week 11: 5-9 -3.9 units
    week 12: 4-3 -1.45 units
    week 13: 9-2 +9.7 units


    NCAAF Total :
    67-46-5
    (59%)
    +21.3 units

    NFL -
    Week 1 : 2-4 -2.2 units
    Week 2 : 3-1-1 +3.9 units
    Week 3 : 2-2 -.85 units
    Week 4 : 2-2 -.3 units
    Week 5 : 6-1 +4.43 units
    Week 6 : 5-2 +3.55 units
    Week 7 : 6-4-1 +1.5 units
    week 8: 7-7 -2.15 units
    week 9: 4-5 -.12 units
    week 10: 5-3 -.3 units
    week 11: 5-4 +1.1 units
    week 12: 5-2 +3.35 units

    NFL Total :
    52-37-2
    (58%)
    +11.91 units


    Thread Total YTD:
    119-83-8
    (59%)
    +33.21 units
    Last edited by Smutbucket; 11-29-12 at 07:26 AM.
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  7. 11-29-12 07:31 AM #427
    Smutbucket
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    heres the docs I use to track...just got everything copy and pasted from this thread in one doc to make it easy....anyone wanna double check for me? Im 95% sure these records are 100% accurate....

    ncaafpicksseasonreview.txt

    nflpicksseasonreview.txt
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  8. 11-29-12 01:50 PM #428
    joco
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    i agree with u in college completely. nebraska and ok st. also like rutgers over louisville tonite. gonna keep lookin to see what else.

    nfl im all over chicago -3...gonna take the jets and bills in a teaser...considering taking detroit ml...i think they win the game no problem...also i might take another teaser with denver and gbay
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  9. 12-01-12 01:07 AM #429
    joco
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    daniel saaaahn. what u puttin in tomoro? im only on 3 plays right now possibly a 4th..

    ok st -5
    nebraska -2.5(bought the hook)
    wvu -19.5

    considerin georgia +8

    lemme know what u got
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  10. 12-01-12 02:18 AM #430
    Smutbucket
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    Ncaa Week 14. Championship Week.
    Oklahoma St -4 (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit
    6 pt Teaser. Oklahoma -1 and Alabama -1.5. Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
    Nebraska -2.5 (-135) Risking 2.7 units to win 2 units
    Tulsa -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit
    Georgia Team Total Under 21 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units


    yo jo, glad to see we on the same side of these 2.......betting against UCF here, TULSA dominated last matchup, should won by a lot more than 2......
    as for Georgia, I wouldnt take them, Murray is terrible against good defenses, just heard a stat that stuck out to me on tv, murray is 1-10 against ranked teams..... I have seen murray in 4-5 big games, including the florida game this year and I can tell you he is VERY TERRIBLE....remeber the ucf game back in '10, murray was AWFUL, he's always awful against any halfway decent defense, dont expect em to do much of anything against this defense...figure saban will be smart and just run the ball this game instead of trying to be cute and throwing all the time like in the LSU game....
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  11. 12-01-12 04:59 AM #431
    Smutbucket
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    Adding:

    5 team ML Parlay: (+608)
    Oklahoma (-235) / Boise St (-325) / Tulsa (-145) / Alabama (-260) / Nebraska (-160)
    Risking .5 units to win 3.04 units
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  12. 12-01-12 08:45 AM #432
    BiffTFinancial
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    BOL today, Smut. card looks good. i'm big on Huskers and Okie State TT/game over, also on Tulsa. BOL today.
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  13. 12-01-12 09:40 AM #433
    joco
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    yea but they did beat florida this year...so maybe murray turned that corner...i expect it to be a close game. anyway i might tail u on that tulsa pick. i dont like betting against our alma mater but it sounds like u did ur research, plus the line moved from -1 to -2.5 in their favor
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  14. 12-01-12 11:58 AM #434
    joco
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    damn this is really bad by ok st....
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  15. 12-01-12 02:23 PM #435
    Smutbucket
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    Adding.
    6 pt Teaser. Boise St -1.5 and Alabama -2. Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
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  16. 12-01-12 02:24 PM #436
    Smutbucket
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    oklahoma state .....

    shoulda listened to sk on that one.......

    hopefully tulsa can pull this one out....
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  17. 12-01-12 06:58 PM #437
    Smutbucket
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    hmmm.....anyone got any suggestions on if/how I should hedge this? right now Im bout even on day.....if Nebraska wins on ML and cover Ill be up 5 units, if they win but dont cover the spread Ill be +.3-4 units....if they lose Ill be down 3 units......hmm....doing some math....might hedge before game, any advice?
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  18. 12-01-12 06:59 PM #438
    Dfjay9
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    Double down! Even (or nearly even) days are for bitches.
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  19. 12-01-12 09:31 PM #439
    joco
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    this is possibly the most pathetic display of football ive ever seen by nebraska...we got sucked into this one dan
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  20. 12-01-12 10:11 PM #440
    Smutbucket
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    shoulda hedged to end + units on last weekend of cfb.....sigh......oh well always the bowls/next season.......

    .....I got so excited for that 1 TD early in 1st qtr when martinez did that crazy run....useless.....

    what you thinking tmrw? Im gonna have to take something in the pats/fins cuz Its on tv over here....
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  21. 12-02-12 07:58 AM #441
    joco
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    yea dan its just funny how 2 of my 3 plays that i liked since the beginning of the week ok st and nebraska played like absolute shit and never had a chance from the start. i actually was up just a tiny bit yesterday cuz of the hawaii game last nite. anywayzzz

    goin to the dolphins game today. so i wont be around to post after 10am (eastern time)

    im doin ml parlays and teasers today...so far i got...

    bears -3
    jets -4.5 (got it a few days ago)
    ravens -7
    broncos ml/packers ml parlay
    bills ml /lions ml parlay

    and i was thinkin i might take the bills -6 spread as well.

    what u got dan
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  22. 12-02-12 11:41 AM #442
    Smutbucket
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    NFL Week 13.
    Seahawks Team Total Over 17 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    6 pt Teaser. Saints +9.5 and 49ers -1.5. Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Cincinnati -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Colts +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Titans +8 (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit
    Dolphins +8 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Dolphins ML +350 Risking .5 units to win 1.75 units
    6 pt Teaser. 49ers -2 and Panthers -.5. Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
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  23. 12-02-12 04:45 PM #443
    joco
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    terrible day for me...thought i was gonna be up huge...bears covering, jets on the 1 about to cover and detroit up by 12 at 4pm...i was completely wrong
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  24. 12-02-12 07:23 PM #444
    Smutbucket
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    ya I thought I was gonna have a terrible day then everything turned around at end to break even........how was phins game? lotta NE fans? you taking anything tonight or tmrw? think im just gonna wait and see if can find anything pop up live.....

    glad philbin took care of his fans at the end and got the cover out of the way
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  25. 12-02-12 07:49 PM #445
    joco
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    honestly i think about 40% of the people at the game were in pats uniforms...well represented
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  26. 12-03-12 07:42 AM #446
    Smutbucket
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smutbucket View Post
    Ncaa Week 14. Championship Week.
    Oklahoma St -4 (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit
    6 pt Teaser. Oklahoma -1 and Alabama -1.5. Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
    Nebraska -2.5 (-135) Risking 2.7 units to win 2 units
    Tulsa -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit
    Georgia Team Total Under 21 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units

    Quote Originally Posted by Smutbucket View Post
    Adding:

    5 team ML Parlay: (+608)
    Oklahoma (-235) / Boise St (-325) / Tulsa (-145) / Alabama (-260) / Nebraska (-160)
    Risking .5 units to win 3.04 units
    Quote Originally Posted by Smutbucket View Post
    Adding.
    6 pt Teaser. Boise St -1.5 and Alabama -2. Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    NCAAF week 14 championship week: 3-4 -3.25 units
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  27. 12-03-12 07:45 AM #447
    Smutbucket
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smutbucket View Post
    NFL Week 13.
    Seahawks Team Total Over 17 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    6 pt Teaser. Saints +9.5 and 49ers -1.5. Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Cincinnati -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Colts +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Titans +8 (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit
    Dolphins +8 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Dolphins ML +350 Risking .5 units to win 1.75 units
    6 pt Teaser. 49ers -2 and Panthers -.5. Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

    NFL Week 13: 4-4 -.05 units
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  28. 12-03-12 07:46 AM #448
    Smutbucket
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    Thread Total YTD:
    126-91-8
    +29.91 units
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  29. 12-05-12 03:08 AM #449
    Smutbucket
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    Wutup fellas! these bowl games got me super-hyped. Lot of value in lot of these games as usual per bowl games are the hardest to predict what side the public will be on (the most influential factor in-determining lines) so oddsmakers throw out their a lot of absurd lines IMO, but anyways this what I got so far....anyone got any comments/additional thoughts on these games?

    2012 NCAAF BOWL PICKS
    Boise St -5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Baylor +3 (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit
    Rutgers +3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit
    Michigan State +3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit
    NC State +7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit
    LSU -4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Mississippi State -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    South Carolina -4 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
    Texas A&M -4 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit
    Kansas State +9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit


    other leans (just waiting on line movements)
    louisville +14
    syracuse +4.5
    texas +1.5
    also bama of course but a little nervous about refs n such, think line will drop too cuz of all the notre dame "sharp money" lol...figuring out a teaser with bama or 2 ....
    Last edited by Smutbucket; 12-05-12 at 03:11 AM.
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  30. 12-05-12 03:48 AM #450
    Smutbucket
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    joco was just looking thru players talk and saw this contest......
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...en.html?slf=46

    wanna join it and go 50/50? I got like 1300 pts so I cant afford entry by myself.....
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  31. 12-05-12 01:02 PM #451
    joco
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    ok i see how it works. wed be a team...im down to split 1250 each...only problem...i dont agree with all ur picks...call me and well discuss
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  32. 12-06-12 05:58 AM #452
    Smutbucket
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    NFL Week 14:
    6.5 pt Teaser. Denver -3.5 and Den/Oak Over 42. Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit
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  33. 12-06-12 07:03 PM #453
    Smutbucket
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    more I look at this game the more I see no reason why they shouldnt cover 10+, gotta take it

    Adding.
    Denver -9.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit
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  34. 12-09-12 03:34 AM #454
    Smutbucket
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    NFL Week 14 Card
    Jets -2.5 (-125) Risking 2.5 units to win 2 units
    Titans +5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Redskins -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
    KC TT Under 14.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit (Biff's TT Special + Fade Quinn Model = $)
    Falcons -3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit
    Saints +5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Texans +4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    6.5 pt Teaser. Seattle -3 and GB -.5 . Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit
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  35. 12-09-12 03:49 AM #455
    Smutbucket
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    cant believe im betting 2.5 units on the jets but chad henne and that offense is a whole nother level of terrible....
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