[Harry N. Lloyd]

Welcome back, boyz! I've been doing my homework and hope to get off to a good start this college football season. I'm gonna dip my toe in the water with two plays on the opening Thursday night......

CENTRAL FLORIDA -24 against AKRON

I always look to bet either on a good team or against a bad team. In this case, it's a bit of both, but with a huge emphasis on the latter. My pre-season rankings has the Zips of Akron as the worst team in college football (excluding the 4 new entries.) The Zips finished 1-11 last year and only bring back 5 starters on defense. They do have a new coach in Terry Bowden but his effectiveness won't be realized for a few seasons. The Knights return 16 starters and look to have a pretty good squad. They are on suspension this year so the regular season is all they've got. With a date against Ohio State next week (at the Horseshoe), they need to get off to a good start in this one. UCF should dominate on the ground and in the air and win this one by about 42-7.

UNLV/MINNESOTA - OVER 50

The Rebels are pretty pathetic, but they do play better at home. Both teams have putrid defenses. Both teams also return more offensive starters than tacklers from last year's squads. Both starting quarterbacks return. I'm not sure who covers the spread in this one but I'm anticipating a lot of points. Let's predict Minny, 35-27. Bet the over.

More plays to follow later in the week.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

[Urbanwildlife]

Your information about the starting quarterback for UNLV is somewhat inaccurate information, as the starting quarterback for UNLV is a redshirt freshman Nick Sherry, who beat out last years starter Caleb Herring. I sure see a lot of inaccurate information being posted on this forum which is not good.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Urban, I'm gonna interpret your post to mean "Good luck, Harry."

Add these plays to the weekend mix....

MICHIGAN STATE -6- over BOISE STATE

I've bet the Broncos a whole lot in the past few seasons, and cashed. Gotta believe they're gonna have their hands full in this opener though. Boise returns only 7 starters, a mere 2 on defense. That's not very promising against a Spartan team that is 14-0 at home over the past two seasons. MSU will pound the ball at the inexperienced Boise front 7. BSU QB Southwick appears to have some talent but he's a long way away from Kellen Moore. This Michigan State defense is too good. MSU wins and covers.

TEXAS -30 over WYOMING

The Longhorns may have the deepest and most talented stable of RBs in the country. Wyoming is projected to have the 118th ranked rush defense in the country. Do the math. With 9 returning starters on offense, Texas will be able to run the ball at will. Last year they disappointed their home fans a few too many times. Not gonna happen in this one. Texas will gain over 300 yards on the ground alone and will name the score. Blowout!

TEXAS STATE +36- against HOUSTON

The Bobcats of Texas State have moved up to division 1. Led by coach Dennis Franchione, they have high hopes but are in for a long season. This is a lot of points however for Houston to lay in week one. The Cougars go into this season with a new QB (Keenum finally graduated after 6 years!) and are also breaking in a new coach. (Heralded HC Sumlin moved on to A&M.) That's a few too many distractions for my taste. Texas State returns 16 starters from last year's squad, including their QB. I'll take the boatload of points and the enthusiasm.

AUBURN/CLEMSON - OVER 55-

The battle of the Tigers. Clemson averaged 36 ppg last season and return talented QB Tajh Boyd. They will be without star receiver Sammy Watkins (suspended) but still should be able to light up the scoreboard against a generous Auburn defense that gave up 29 ppg last season. Auburn is nothing if not resilient. They seem to find a way to stay in games. I see these two teams trading a fair amount of points and this one going over the posted total.

Maybe one or two more plays to follow, not quite sure yet.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

[greenhippo]

Adding O ULNV/Minnesota, good call Harry.

[paranoyd androyd]

Your information about the starting quarterback for UNLV is somewhat inaccurate information, as the starting quarterback for UNLV is a redshirt freshman Nick Sherry, who beat out last years starter Caleb Herring. I sure see a lot of inaccurate information being posted on this forum which is not good.

harry, why are you discounting this?

[Harry N. Lloyd]

harry, why are you discounting this?

Last year's starting QB, Herring, is back as I stated. He really wasn't all that good so they're gonna give Sherry the start. Neither QB affects my opinion. The Rebs gave up 40 ppg last season. They only return 5 starters from that defense which allowed 4.9 ypc and had the 109th ranked pass efficiency defense. Minny gave up 32 ppg, also gave up 4.9 ypc, and had the 112th ranked pass defense. Both defenses are putrid to I am projecting the game to go over. Follow at your own risk.

[agharah1]

Akron is absolutely wretched, but UCF lost to UAB last year. This team is inconsistent at best, and with their entire school athletics department in total disarray, I'm not saying Akron will win straight up, but UCF could give up a backdoor cover.

I definitely like the MSU pick. This isn't the same Boise team. Teams that can run the football and play defense like the Spartans are much less prone to upsets.

Speaking of defense and power running game, what's up with South Carolina? How can anyone think a team with Marcus Lattimore and Jadaveon Clowney is going to lose to Vandy? Last year Marcus Lattimore had one of his only sub-100yd rushing games vs. Vandy, Stephen Garcia threw 4 INTs, and the gamecocks *still* won 21-3. Why? Defense! All the mistakes in the world won't help the opposing team if you hold them to less than 100 yards of total offense.

If you can run the football and play defense, you'll be in every game and you'll be less likely to get upset. By that same token, I like Texas. Even though the horns have struggled offensively and haven't covered against Wyoming in the past, depth at running back helps a lot because you can keep scoring even when you've cleared the benches.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Final play of the week for me will be......

BAYLOR/SMU - UNDER 58

June Jones and his Mustangs of SMU quietly put together a solid season last year, going 8-5. Not bad after two consecutive 1-11 seasons. They did it with a sturdy defense, allowing only 23 ppg. This year they return 7 starters from that D. Meanwhile on the offensive side they return only 3 starters. They'll probably have a hard time moving the pigskin early this season. Everyone remembers how Baylor so easily rang up the points last season and I think this inflated total reflects that. It's worth noting though that the Bears have graduated not only Heisman winner RGIII, but 4 other offensive players who were drafted by NFL teams. Look for their O to take a significant step backwards. This will be a defensive game and I am playing the under.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Boyz, I'd rather be lucky than good. Phew! 13-13 at the end of regulation, and still end up cashing the OVER 50 ticket in the UNLV/Minny game. 30-27. Wow!! Hope you hit this one too, Greenhippo.

[Big Dave's Picks]

Hey Harry great picks last night sir. I went the other way on the total for the MINN/UNLV game so you can imagine my discouragement. However went 1-2 for the card last and looking to rebound tonight. I like your future picks for the weekend and BOL with them and your season. I'll be following you sir. Good Luck, Big Dave

[2daBank]

Boyz, I'd rather be lucky than good. Phew! 13-13 at the end of regulation, and still end up cashing the OVER 50 ticket in the UNLV/Minny game. 30-27. Wow!! Hope you hit this one too, Greenhippo.

wow..i stopped paying attention to that gm real early. you know things going good when you hit a total like that.....congrats Harry and gl on the season

[shopbar picks]

Thanx harry. good luck