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The Lillipad - frogsrangers 2012 College Football Picks & Resources
Hey guys welcome to my 2012 College Football thread, looking forward to a good season, I had another thread but I am making a new one since I just don't have time for the previews and all that, so this thread will just be straight picks & any models/stats I come up with in the season.
Just made a bunch of plays today at the LVH and Cantor, really excited and the next 8 days will be a long wait. Should be fun.
Stay tuned for my picks & writeups, coming in a bit
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Thursday, August 30
One of my favorite days of the sporting year, when I was in college me and my team mates would gather around on this opening night and watch football. Those days are gone but its still a fun year and betting on these games should be fun too.
My first play for August 30 will be the SEC clash between South Carolina and Vanderbilt. I think that the Gamecocks defense is too much for Vanderbilt, who has no offense. I know the Commodores will have the home field advantage but that won't matter much, South Carolina will grind out a win here, so I like South Carolina -6.5 in this one, shouldn't be too difficult of a cover.
The second play for this night is a neutral site game in Shreveport, Louisiana between Texas A&M and Louisiana Tech. This has all the makings of a trap game for the Aggies, because they are more focused on establishing themselves in the SEC and don't really care about WAC teams, meanwhile LA Tech is clearly the class of the watered down WAC and another WAC title for them is a given so they have bigger things on their mind as well, such as beating Texas A&M. Even though its in Louisiana the crowd should be evenly split, but I give the advantage to Lousiana Tech here, they have more to play for while A&M will be looking down the road to their game against Florida next week, Louisiana Tech meanwhile is solid and returns pretty much everyone from last year, and should have beat TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl, so they will be focused. Texas A&M is breaking in a new system on both sides of the ball and will be starting a bonehead at QB who has already embarrased himself off the field, so Louisiana Tech +7.5 is the play here, and play the money line too when it comes out.
My third play for Thursday is Rice +16 at home against UCLA. UCLA is breaking in a new system as well, while Rice isn't, Rice isn't that good but I think at home they will be fired up enough to do just good enough, UCLA may win by 14 or so but 16 is a lot to ask for on the road in a first game under a new scheme. Plus Rice has the benefit of being smarter and won't beat themselves.
Fourth play for Thursday is an easy one, BYU -13.5 against Washington State. Washington State doesn't have the athletes yet to run the air raid offense well off the bat, and going into a hostile environment at BYU is a tough order. Trust me I have been to BYU and they get loud there. BYU will embarrass Wazzu here, they should win by 28+ so its going to be an easy cover.
Fifth play for Thursday is a game between 2 teams jumping into the Division 1 stage that no one knows about. Texas San Antonio led by Larry Coker and South Alabama, who had an unbeaten year in 2010. I really like South Alabama here at home, simply because they have experience under their belt, while Texas San Antonio is playing their first ever game, so it could be sloppy. The spread is only 6.5, which isn't that much. UTSA may have better athletes but USA will win the execution war, and has homefield advantage, so South Alabama -6.5 is the call here.
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GL, What was wrong with the first thread?
Im on LA tech as well
Frogs I wouldn't bet on Rice to beat a spread with ur money
Friday August 31
More good games on the slate this year, usually Friday in Week 1 is a throwaway with garbage games, not this time. I have plays on all 3 listed games here.
First up, NC State vs. Tennessee. Tennessee may seem like the obvious pick because they are in the SEC, but don't sleep on NC State. NC State has momentum from last year and returns a lot on offense, defensively they may be week up front but their DBs are good. Tennessee meanwhile, lots of pressure to perform, and the past 2 years have been bad for them. I see this as a tossup game, so in tossups always take the points, so NC State +4 is the play.
Second is everyone's favorite punching bag Boise State, against Big 10 frontrunner Michigan. I know that Boise State is breaking in a new QB, but he is not a stranger to college football, has some experience. And I think that Boise State is not a successful program because of Kellen Moore or their individual QBs, but because of their culture and overall teamwork. So I think they will continue to roll along even without Kellen Moore. Going to Michigan State is a tough task, but Boise State has won their Week 1 mega game 3 straight years, and Michigan State is vanilla enough to where Boise State can exploit them. Michigan State can't look past this one, I know they have Rose Bowl and Big 10 on their minds, but they have to get up for this game. Boise State certainly will, as if they win this one they could go undefeated. It will be a close one, could go either way, but I like Boise State here, they always get up for these games and play well. So Boise State +7 is the play.
The third and final game on Friday could be more interesting than you think. Stanford at home vs. San Jose State. Stanford no longer has Andrew Luck, and to be honest I don't think they will be that good this year, compared to the past 2 years for them. San Jose State meanwhile overperformed last season, and should be better this year. They covered many games last year and won lots of money for bettors, see no reason why they shouldn't cover against Stanford, who isn't flashy. Stanford will just try to win this one without style, so I can see a 28-14 Stanford win, nothing flashy. So San Jose State +25.5 is the way to go here.
Saturday September 1
The last time college ball was played on Saturday September 1 we saw a huge upset, Appalachian State downing Michigan. What could be in store this year?
To start things off we have an early game across the Atlantic, featuring Notre Dame and Navy. First game across the planet on a neutral site means that things could be sloppy, so it will be low scoring. And with a team that already aims to limit possessions and tries to chew the clock, Navy, this seems to be a game Navy could keep close. Navy got blown out last year, but they should be better. It will be an interesting game, but a low scoring game means that 17 points is a lot of value, so Navy +17 is the play.
Another interesting game early is Ohio at Penn State. Now, I know everyone wants to fade Penn State because of the offseason issues, but I think the play is on Ohio because Ohio is simply a good team, not so much that Penn State will be distracted. Ohio returns a lot from their bowl winning team last year, including Tyler Tettleton, who should be the best QB in the MAC. Penn State is in pieces, they might win this game, but Ohio is a strong team too, one of the best teams in the MAC, so they will be motivated as well. Ohio +7 is the play and play Ohio ML when it comes out.
Another MAC team on the road against a Big 10 team is Western Michigan, who returns a lot from their bowl team last year, playing an Illinois team trying to right the ship. Western Michigan has a strong offense, and Illinois could be caught off guard here, installing Tim Beckman's hyper offensive style. Illinois isn't built yet for such gunslinging, so Western Michigan +9.5 is the way to go, plus Western Michigan ML when it comes out.
In Boston, two teams who have really faded over the past couple of years meet. Boston College and Miami. I think Miami is going to have a really bad year, there is just too much distractions right now for that program. Boston College might not have a good year either, but to start the season I think that they should be able to beat Miami. Boston College PICK is the play.
In Chicago its another MAC vs. Big 10 battle. Northern Illinois, who I think with Ohio is the best team in the MAC, vs. Iowa, who no one really knows what to expect from them. Northern Illinois might be breaking in a new QB, but they still have talent all around, while Iowa has shown over the past few years that they can get dangerously close to defeat in these Week 1 games. I like Northern Illinois +9.5 in this game because they do have the talent to compete, and stay close in a Week 1 neutral site battle.
A big rivalry game is played in Denver to start each season, and its a shame that these two programs have been pretty bad as of late. Colorado State is getting a new staff, Jim McElwain from Alabama, while Colorado is trying to right the ship after a bad 2011. This game hasn't been competitive since 2009, and Colorado State is starting from scratch here, from the ground up, while Colorado at least has some foundation already laid. So Colorado -5.5 should be an easy cover, because they are the better team, and should have no problem winning by at least a TD. I actually expect Colorado to win by 17+.
Texas has had two bad seasons in a row, inexcusable because of how much talent they have. They will face a Wyoming team who overachived last year. Wyoming has about 1/100th of the talent of most other Division 1 schools, yet won 8 games and went to a bowl last year. They have a talented QB Brett Smith who is better than most people think, and a bunch of blue collar defensive players who have a high energy motor. Texas meanwhile, usually plays lousy in Week 1 games, and will be playing a rotating QB system between two lousy QBs in this game. It will all be up to the Texas defense. These two teams met in 2009 and 2010, with Wyoming being competitive in both games before fading in the 4th quarter. I think the spread of -29 is a joke here, Wyoming is better than that, and Texas still can't score, it will be a low scoring affair. Something along the lines of 28-10, but 29 points is too much and you have to be a fool not to take that for Wyoming. So Wyoming +29.5 is the play, one of the easiest games on the board, the only way this doesn't cover is if somehow Texas discovers an offense and Wyoming plays like absolute garbage.
In the Coliseum, USC looks to march on toward a national title. They get Hawaii, who is still known for its offense, though it may not be as run n shoot as it was in the past, it will still be a Hawaii pass first offense. USC should roll here, but I still think Hawaii will get its share of points too, these two teams met in Hawaii in 2010 and Hawaii pushed until the end, and Hawaii will have more of a run game now. Defensively they need to stop the run, will be tough against USC, but Norm Chow knows USC well. I think USC will score in the 50s, and Hawaii in the upper 10s/20s, so 39.5 points should be more than enough for Hawaii to cover. Hawaii +39.5 is the play.
The marquee game of the week in Dallas, Alabama and Michigan, may seem like it will be a great game, but not so fast, I think Michigan is over rated, they did beat VT last year in the Sugar Bowl but VT sucked too and Michigan really didn't beat anyone else last year. They were lucky just to get to the Sugar Bowl, and I think Alabama is out of their league, Denard Robinson won't have a good game, and Alabama is too good. Alabama -12 is an easy call here, I think Michigan will have a forgettable game here.
In Arizona, there will be a shootout between Toledo and Arizona. Both teams will have new coaches, but both teams will still be fast paced and pass happy. Toledo has the talent to hang with an Arizona team in transition, lets face the facts Toledo is not a bad team at all. Arizona is not a good team yet, Rich Rodriguez can change that but they are still the lousy team that had a lousy year last year. I like Toledo +11 here, Arizona isn't at that level yet to where they can blow a decent team out. Toledo DOES NOT PLAY DEFENSE, so when the totals come out play the over also.
And speaking of no defense, in Seattle Washington and San Diego State meet. Washington had an embarrassing defensive effort last year in the Alamo Bowl, and don't expect much to improve this year. San Diego State comes in having lost a lot of their weapons to the NFL over the past 2 years, so they will be breaking in new personel, but their QB Ryan Katz is a transfer from Oregon State who has Pac 12 experience. And SDSU has an under rated defense coached by one of the defensive masterminds in college football, Rocky Long. I think San Diego State can be respectable here, they probably won't win, but they won't lay down either. San Diego State +14.5 is the play here.
In Durham NC, Duke is primed for another forgettable year, and they have to open with a good Sun Belt team in Florida International. I know Duke beat FIU last year, but last year was last year, FIU still has a lot of weapons. Take Florida International +4 in this game, because Duke isn't that good, especially in Week 1 based on prior history.
In Baton Rogue, LSU is a national title contender, and they are facing perpetual Sun Belt dormat North Texas. But this is still LSU, who struggled to move the ball last year even against lousy teams like Western Kentucky. So LSU I don't think has solved their offensive issues yet, even if they have a new QB. North Texas meanwhile, is trending upward, I like Dan McCarney, but their offense is no match for LSU here. I think LSU rolls, but 43.5 points with that offense is a lot to ask for, so I like North Texas +43.5 in this game, North Texas might not find the end zone one time but as long as they keep LSU from finding it many times, they should be OK to cover here, I expect a 35-0 LSU win but not a flat out stomping.
Sunday September 2
Two games on tap for this day, only have one play so far, avoiding SMU/Baylor game as we don't know what to expect from either team there, so leave it alone.
But the Kentucky Louisville game is in my opinion one of the easiest Week 1 games to make a call on. I think Kentucky is getting too much credit here, they suck, and the spread should be higher, but it isn't because of SEC bias. If Kentucky were not in the SEC the spread would be worse. Which is why Louisville -14 is an easy play, put it in your parlays too, I know its a rivalry game but Louisville will get up for this game and destroy Kentucky. Kentucky is not good guys, they will have a bad year.
Monday September 3
One game on tap for this Labor Day, and again I think its an easy call. Georgia Tech, with their triple option, faces Virginia Tech to open the year. And why is this an easy game to call? Because its Week 1, and Virginia Tech has a good defense, that has had many weeks to prepare for this offense. Anyone knows that given a lot of time to prepare, its easy to shut down the triple option. And I bet Virginia Tech has worked on shutting it down since Spring. And even better, VT is at home, so they should win this one pretty easily. So Virginia Tech -7 is the play here, they have too good of a defense with too much time to prepare to get stymied by the triple option at home.
Parlays & Teasers
I think there are 2 sports where its acceptable to do parlays, and thats college football and college basketball, just because you have a large library of games to choose from so its easier to pick out the easy plays.
Each week I do a 3 teamer, 6 teamer, and 8 teamer. Over the years, I hit a lot of 3 teamers, some 6 teamers, and have only hit an 8 teamer once, but these are for fun plays that I make with small bet sizes. Not like I am throwing $200 on an 8 teamer, more like $10 (which pays out $1400 if you hit).
So what are my parlays and teasers for Week 1?
$20 3 Team Thursday Special Parlay: South Carolina -7, BYU -13.5, South Alabama -6.5
$20 3 Team Thursday Special 6 point Teaser: South Alabama -0.5, Louisiana Tech +13, South Carolina -1
$20 3 Team Easy Street Parlay(3 easiest games on the Week 1 board): Wyoming +29, Virginia Tech -7, Louisville -14
$15 4 Team 6 point are you serious teaser: South Alabama -0.5, Alabama -6.5, Colorado +0.5, Boston College +6
$10 6 team Pick 6 Parlay: BYU -13.5, South Alabama -6.5, Louisville -14, Virginia Tech -7, South Carolina -7, Colorado -5.5
$10 8 team Wild Longshot Make it Rain if it wins Parlay: BYU -13.5, South Alabama -6.5, Louisville -14, Virginia Tech -7, South Carolina -7, Colorado -5.5, Louisiana Tech +7.5, Alabama -12.5
Kind of worried about South Alabama -6.5, write up is wrong, its not UTSA's first season, that was last year, they played South Alabama last year and lost by 3 in OT.
South Alabama -6.5 still the play, but its not the lock I was making it out to be, and the fact its in lots of my parlays and teasers casues more room for concern, but too late now
That is a shitload of action for week 1 when noone has any clue how these teams will look
Good luck
If you know what you are doing, Week 1 can be the most profitable week there is, because some teams(like Texas) are overvalued due to the name on their jersey, while other teams are undervalued because no one knows how good they will be yet(a good example last year would have been Utah State).Originally Posted by pattymayo
I cleaned up nicely last year during Week 1, going 20-6. It was my best week of the season
I agree week one could be generous lines, rangers, check out my thread and tell me what u think... Seems like we're on same page with a lot, looking forward to capping with u!
Love this guy! (however, A&M wins by 20)
Wouldn't surprise me if A&M won by 20, if Louisiana Tech wins it will be a close game, but A&M could blow them out, but I am just not seeing a blowout, since A&M has too much new parts to work in, and they just weren't a good team last year, and a new coaching staff that doesn't emphasize defense and a conference switch isn't going to change the fact that A&M is an average team at best
Frogs, Is there anyone you will tail for NCAA or nfl?
I dont bet NFL
I make my own picks for College ball
PUMPED TO TAIL YOU INTO +UNITS!Are you going to make specific unit recommendations to illustrate confidence levels in the picks?
Yes
frogs, as a memphis fan i am very excited about the team with justin fuente at the helm. more excited than i was prior to deangelo williams' senior year, even.
i know what to expect, he's been very public about how fast he wants the team to move on offense, but tell me some things i maybe didn't know about him (and get me more pumped up, basically), as you seem to be a wealth of tcu knowledge.
i honestly won't bet it, but memphis over 2.5 wins at -160 i think is a really, really good bet. they really should open 2-1 with ut martin and mtsu both at home in games 1 and 3. their schedule is so easy, they will just have to get at least one or two more wins.
anyway...fuente...thanks.
He was a pretty quiet guy until he became our OC, and I don't think he liked me, he yelled at me a lot, he would be nice off the field but on the field it was different
On a coaching level, he pretty much took the offense we had before he became OC and put his personal touches on it, made our passing game easier and more efficient, instead of the complex mess it was before hand. I don't think Memphis will have a hard time learning it, its pretty simple, and with a new coach simple is good. He is also a "hard" coach, doesn't go easy on anyone, you have to earn it with him. And he will take the work ethic/practice style from TCU with him, meaning a lot of attention to detail and execution, and not stopping practice until he thinks everything that needed to be done has been done.
I think its a good hire, but its not going to be about the offense at Memphis, but the defense. Will be a work in progress
Looking at their schedule, they should beat UT-Martin, but after that all bets are off. They won't beat Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee is 50/50, Duke I'd put at 25%. Their conference schedule is brutal, I only see potential wins against Rice and Tulane.
I'd say 3 wins is about a 50% chance.
frogs, what u think about Eastern Michigan plus 3.5?
Eastern Michigan had a good year last year for their standards, and its not like Ball State is the best team either, but its a road game for them, first game of the year, I wouldn't play this one if I were you. No play is best play on this one
OK, here is my official card and unit sizes for Week 1 with plays and the current line and score projections. If there is a % by the play, do not play the play at the current line. If there is a # next to the play, it means its still OK to play it at the current line.
NOTE: All Money Line Plays are for half(0.5) a unit, regardless of how many units the side bet gets, unless stated otherwise
The 0 Unit Plays (Games I am not playing, but if I had a gun to my head and had to play these games, here is what I would do)
Date Away Away Score Home Home Score Play (Book) 08/30 UCF 42 AKRN 13 UCF -23.5 (MGM) 08/30 EMU 17 BALL 16 EMU +3.5 (LVH) 08/30 MASS 6 CONN 28 MASS +24.5 (LVH) 08/30 MINN 20 UNLV 17 UNLV +8.5 (CANTOR) 09/01 MRSH 21 WVU 48 WVU -24 (MGM) 09/01 NW 34 SYR 35 SYR +1.5 (CANTOR) 09/01 MIOH 10 OHST 34 OHST -22.5 (MGM) 09/01 TLSA 38 IAST 28 TLSA -1 (MGM) 09/01 UNR 28 CAL 35 UNR +11.5 (CANTOR) 09/01 USM 14 NEB 41 NEB -19 (LVH) 09/01 BUFF 3 UGA 38 BUFF +38 (LVH) 09/01 BGSU 7 FLA 34 BGSU +29.5 (LVH) 09/01 TSSM 24 HOU 55 TSSM +37 (LVH) 09/01 CLEM 31 vs. AUB 24 CLEM -3 (MGM) 09/01 RUTG 38 TULN 10 RUTG -19.5 (LVH) 09/01 OKLA 52 UTEP 13 OKLA -30.5 (LVH) 09/01 TROY 28 UAB 20 TROY -6 (LVH) 09/01 ARST 21 ORE 59 ORE -35.5 (CANTOR) 09/02 SMU 28 BAY 35 SMU +11 (MGM)
The 1 Unit Plays
The 2 Unit Plays
Date Away Away Score Home Home Score Play Current Line 08/30 UCLA 28 RICE 17 RICE +15.5 RICE +15.5 (LVH) 08/31 NCST 21 vs. TENN 19 NCST +4
NCST +145NCST +4 (CE) 08/31 BOST 38 MIST 35 BOST +7
BOST +240BOST +7 08/31 SJSU 10 STAN 28 SJSU +25.5 SJSU +26 (CE) 09/01 NAVY 17 ND 28 NAVY +17 NAVY +17 (LVH) 09/01 FIU 24 DUKE 17 FIU +4
FIU +155FIU +4 09/01 SDSU 28 WASH 38 SDSU +14.5 SDSU +14.5
Date Away Away Score Home Home Score Play Current Line 09/01 OHIO 21 PNST 17 OHIO +5.5
OHIO +190OHIO +6 (MGM) 09/01 NTEX 0 LSU 35 NTEX +43 NTEX +43 09/01 MIFL 14 BC 17 BC PK BC PK
The 3 Unit Plays
Date Away Away Score Home Home Score Play Current Line 08/30 UTSA 14 USA 24 USA -6.5 USA -6.5 08/30 TA&M 38 vs. LTCH 41 LTCH +7.5
LTCH +250LTCH +7.5 09/01 WMU 24 ILL 28 WMU +10
WMU +300WMU -9.5 # 09/01 IOWA 23 vs. NILL 24 NILL +9.5
NILL +280NILL -9.5 (LVH) 09/01 TOL 48 ARIZ 41 TOL +11
TOL +300TOL +10.5 # 09/01 HAW 14 USC 48 HAW +39.5 HAW +40.5
The 4 Unit Plays
Date Away Away Score Home Home Score Play Current Line 08/30 SCAR 21 VAND 7 SCAR -7 SCAR -7 09/01 WYO 10 TEX 28 WYO +29 WYO +29 09/01 ALA 34 MICH 14 ALA -11.5 ALA -12.5 #
The 5 Unit Lock Specials
Date Away Away Score Home Home Score Play Current Line 08/30 WAST 14 BYU 42 BYU -13.5 BYU -13.5 09/01 COL 31 vs. COST 14 COL -5.5 COL -6 # 09/02 UKY 7 LOU 28 LOU -14 LOU -14 09/03 GTCH 13 VTCH 27 VTCH -7 VTCH -7 (LVH)
Last edited by frogsrangers; 08-26-12 at 09:59 PM.
The Parlays:
The 3 Team Thursday Night Special Units: 2 South Carolina -7 BYU -13.5 South Alabama -6.5
The 3 Team Labor Day Weekend Special Units: 2 Wyoming +29.5 Louisville -14 Virginia Tech -7
The 4 Team 5 Unit Lock Special Special Units: 1 BYU -13.5 Colorado -5.5 Louisville -14 Virginia Tech -7
The Week 1 Pick Six Units: 1 BYU -13.5 South Alabama -6.5 South Carolina -7 Colorado -5.5 Louisville -14 Virginia Tech -7
The Week 1 Hail Mary Special Units: 1 BYU -13.5 South Alabama -6.5 South Carolina -7 Louisiana Tech +7.5 Alabama -12.5 Colorado -5.5 Louisville -14 Virginia Tech -7
The Teasers
The 3 Team Thursday Night 6 point Teaser Special Units: 2 South Alabama -1 BYU -8 South Carolina -1
The 4 Team Easy Street 6 point Teaser Units: 2 South Alabama -0.5 Alabama -6.5 Colorado +0.5 Boston College +6
Glad to hear you're feeling BYU. I've been leaning that one too and another good capper's approval was all I needed. Riley Nelson = cover machine!
The sheet. CANT WAIT! I got Thursday Night off, and most of Saturday off, so it should be a good opening week.
Frogs what is your win % for pointspreads? Are your winning %s better for 5 unit bets vs 4 vs 3 vs 2 vs 1 ?
Nice Thread Frogs, I will be following/ throwing in my 2 cents.......
I agree week 1 and week 2 in college football have always been the most profitable for me
First year I am doing weighted wagers so all I have is my record last year which was 59%
But I already downgraded 2 plays, South Carolina to a 4 unit from 5 and South Alabama to a 3 unit from 5
After reading up more on Vandy and UT San Antonio I figured both plays are not the locks I thought they were.
Granted if both teams play an average game they will cover, but if there is any week to play a below average game its week 1 and in south Carolina case on the road against a fired up opponent
Not the locks I had them pegged as but I already had them in parlays so it's too late now and I just have to hope for the best
Very well written writeups on your selections Frogs. I like BYU and Alabama the most.
What was your record last year in NCAAF and NCAAB frogsrangers?
This is a lot of work. I am impressed. Hope the season translates.
looks awesome track your results and post your up to date w/l record plus units total /im tailing a few frog gl to all of us
shooms79 gave frogsrangers 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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