[venture]

I like Tennessee over 7 wins -120, 1x


Tennessee has 21 returning starters including special teams. 10 on Off, 9 Def, 2 SP. Last year they were 5-7 but drew ALA, LSU, Ark from SEC west. This year they only draw ALA from the SEC west's top tier. Last year the OL had 3 SO and a Frosh starting. This year the whole unit returns and they have 105 career starts between them, which is third most in the nation. Four of the five were highly rated recruits out of high school so the talent is there. The WR group only losses Arnett 21 catches for 242 yards and he will be replaces by a 5* JC WR who has impressed early on in practice. Brey missed 5 games due to injury and should have a break out year (LY 1983 yards 60% 17 TD 6 INT). The OL will be better (only allowed 18 sacks LY) and he has some electrifying playmakers at WR (Rogers 6'3 210 4.4 speed 1000 yard receiver LY). The rushing numbers can only improve with a more experienced OL. They lose there starting RB but he was not impressive last year, 693 yards 3.7 average.


The defense returns 9 starters but also adds DE JC who was on ALA for 3 years and was a 4* recruit out of high school. They also add a 6-6 380 JC NT and he will fit in nicely because they are moving to a 3-4 defense. Last year they had two starting freshman at LB (starting LB's last year had 1 career start, this year 55), they are the top two returning tacklers. They should be even better this year being bigger and more experience with the defense. They also add there number 2 tackler from 2010 who was injured last year. The Defensive backfield returns 8 players who started last year and 5 of those started 8+ games. This unit should also be improves due to experience. They only loss there LS from special teams. They had decent return numbers and have a good FG kicker but there punter was very lacking last year.


Tennessee was a really young team last year and they return 21 starters 2nd most in the nation(2nd only to UTSA who is entering their first year at DIV 1). I think they dramatically improve on last year 5-7 record and also on their 4-8 ATS. I think they are at least a 8-4 team and have potential to win 9 or 10. I also think they will have a winning record ATS this year.

[venture]

Tenn line has moved on 5 dimes. Over 7.5 wins has gone from +130 to +105 and over 7 has gone from -120 to -180. That’s a big jump. BetDSI still has over 7 at -120 and I’m locking that bet in right now.

[Sunde91]

Your price is good. I liked this a lot over a month ago, but am less convinced Tenn will put it all together for a nice 8+ win year.

I've looked at the schedule closer and was more realistic and see

3-1 first 4 games
1-3 middle 4
3-1 last 4

I used to think 4-0 to start and finish easily, but odds wise, they probably lose 1 each. If they lose vs NCST, it's big trouble for their psyche and then a loss vs FLA would be a wrap on the season.

[venture]

I think NC State is going to be good this year and will be a good game.

2-2 worst case first four, 4-0 best case (also think Florida will be much improved this year)
1-3 next four, and I think there is a chance at a upset of Geo, Ala, SC. to put them at 2-2
3-1 worst case, but I really don't see them losing to any of these teams. Mizz will be beat up from SEC at that time and no way they loss to Vandy two year in a row. I think they roll easy last 4, to go 4-0

So worst case 6-6 loss bet, best case I can see a 9 win team, and I think they get to 8 wins more than 50% of the time.

[Louisvillekid1]

They fall in their opener

[ConferenceChalk]

I like NC state and Tennessee as sleepers this season - makes me wish they weren't playing each other week 1

[venture]

I like NC state and Tennessee as sleepers this season - makes me wish they weren't playing each other week 1

2 of my favorite sleepers this year too. Realy excited to see this game. I think NC ST has a decent chance at being 5-0 going into the Fla st game.

[Louisvillekid1]

NC St shouldn't even be considered a sleeper, they are really good...

[venture]

NC St shouldn't even be considered a sleeper, they are really good...

yea and they won 8 last year. With fla st at home and Clemson at end of season (clem seems to always falter at end) I think they have a shot at ACC champ game. Not sure if win conf 23-1 or win division 9.25-1 has enough value.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Da'Rick Rogers gone... Kicked off the team. I don't see UT getting over 7 games. I think they land right on the number...

[venture]

Da'Rick Rogers gone... Kicked off the team. I don't see UT getting over 7 games. I think they land right on the number...

Tuff loss, have read real good things about JC wr. NC st + 3.5 is defently worth a look