I've been posting on here for a few years but probably will develop a more structured thread this season. I finished last year 81-60-1 ATS in college football so I hope this year's as good as last and I can share some of the fortune.
My main CFB betting principle is to lay the chalk, and in September that almost always means taking BCS-conference teams at home versus mid-majors. At this point, these are my four favorite that fit that criteria.
Note - only one of the dogs (Dysert at Miami OH) I am betting against returns their starting QB, meaning the other 3 are having to go to hostile territory as a major underdog and keep the game close. Vegas does account for this factor, but not enough in my opinion.
Michigan State -7 vs Boise State I've spilled my affinity for this game on multiple threads already, but I'm absolutely in love with Michigan State on this one. MSU has been building up under Mark D'antonio but this could be their best team. 8 returning starters on D, 4 starters returning on the O-line, and a stud running back in Le'Veon Bell, this team is tailor-made for his style of coaching. This is a Friday night game at a large, hostile environment (75,000 at Spartan Stadium); Kellen Moore might have been able to provide the calming influence, but I don't see if from Joe Southwick. With very few starters returning, especially on defense (I think only 3 on D), this isn't the same Boise team. I value this one at around 14 points and so I'm jumping all over it at a TD.
Washington -14.5 vs San Diego St
I haven't seen a ton of chatter on this play, I love it and want to make sure I have all the angles covered. I expect Washington's offense to be exceptional this year, specifically because of Keith Price. I was extremely impressed with him as a freshman and I anticipate a step up for him this season. I'm looking at the Huskies putting up 50+ at the very least on a defense that returns only 3 starters and wasn't exactly dominant (391 ypg) a year ago. SDSU will need to score a lot to keep pace, and with a new set of skill players that's a tough task. This feels like a 52-28 type game.
Nebraska -17.5 vs Southern Miss USM's coach and QB are gone, and starting over with a new regime on the road against a (historic, at minimum) national power would be enough to bypass the Eagles here. But I think the reason this is less than 3 TDs is because of Nebraska's subpar 2011 (they were only 4-8-1 ATS). While I can't say I've tracked the Cornuskers spring drills, Pelini has really stabilized the program and I expect major improvement from a year ago, especially with 15 starters and a 3-year starter at QB coming back. Maybe Martinez can't throw, but it won't matter here, I like Nebraska by 3 TD+
Ohio State -23 vs Miami OH I think we can safely say that 2011 was aberration for OSU football, and the reason for that can squarely be attributed to a lack of leadership on offense. We saw in retrospect how vital Tressell was to the play calling as his offense produced only 318 ypg, ranking 107th in the nation. That's just not going to happen again in Columbus, and though we may not be at Meyer-Tebow level just yet, OSU should be able to see paydirt 6 times or so. As for the defense, well, it never left, and Miami is going to have a tough time scoring more than 17 points. Anything less than 24 I feel safe here.
Check out my blog for conference previews, analysis, and picks for all College Football and Basketall http://conferencechalk.com
Washington is going to be fantastic this year as long as Price stays healthy. SDSU lost their QB so not sure how they will be esp at Wash.
As for Boise, I saw Southwick play at garbage time last year. He looked good but obviously I'm keeping in mind it was against Toledo. After everything Boise has done in the past three years, it's really hard to bet a -7 against them. Maybe they can keep it close because does Mich St have someone to lead them now that Cousins is gone?
Price was a RS SO last year. They have allot of injuries especially OL, LB. It sounds like the new defensive coaches have lit a fire under the defense who was lousy last year. I think allot of the defensive problems last year was due to the coaching. They have some good talent on DL and DB. LB are green. If UW's OL can protect price UW will cover. Any idea on SDST DL? Also SDST head coach has said he will go for it alot on 4th down this year if they are on 50 or closer. This will put allot of pressure on the defense. But could shorten the field for UW. Also the game is at Seahawks stadium which is the loudest in NFL, I expect that place to be rockin and the Dawgs to cover.
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4 home chalk that I am pounding week 1
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