as a general rule, every powerhouse top ranked school murders the spread against the "confidence builder" games they play week 1. especially right out of the gate, the top schools will smash the unranked teams they play. i got Bama, south car, oregon, possibly USC? , georgia, notre dame, .. not LSU cuz the line is too high.. just agree with me
Being a west coast resident I tend to catch a lot more Pac12 news than other regions, and have spent some extra time looking into these week 1 games. You mentioned 2 heavy lines, and I'm with you on laying chalk.
Starting with Oregon, I'm alumni and a homer, so take my opinion with a grain of salt and do your own work. That being said 35' points is still a solid bet. This Oregon offense is going to score at least 50 points in the home opener, fans are already jonesing for the season to start, and this team feeds off that energy. Akst is returning only 4 def. starters, and are going to get run over. This is also an improved Oregon defense, and has always been very stingy with the endzone at home. Benefit of the doubt, Oregon still covers 50-13.
USC is going to be in the same boat. Explosive offense, at home, against a Hawaii defense also returning 4, that was already terrible. I expect a very similar outcome to the Oregon game. USC covers 38 in a 56-10 win.
I see you mentioned OSU, which got me to thinking about other big lines I'm willing to lay on.
I too like Ohio St. They return the entire defense, that was already great, and I'm not sure Miami(OH) even gets in the endzone. 22' seems like an easy cover.
UCF is a team to keep your eye on this year, I look for them to go 10-2, with losses at Ohio St and home against Mizzou. They return 8, but more like 10 with rotations on a defense that was pretty good a year ago. This will also be a whole new look offense with the addition of Gabbert at QB and Johnson at RB, both transfers from Mizzou and Miami respectively. That said I expect them to put on a show, despite being on the road, in the first game of the season. I like UCF to cover 23' at Akron.
Stanford loses a lot on offense, but should not effect them much in the opener when they host SJSU. I like them to cover the 25', as they will simply overpower them on both sides of the line. They are simply bigger and more athletic, this is a mismatch from the get go.