In handicapping, especially the preseason, everyone makes a big deal about returning starters. This is especially important for people betting over/under wins for the season.
Returning starters seems like a useful statistic for this kind of betting. But does more experience really result in better teams? Check out these two blog posts and decide for yourself:
Thanks for the responses. I think that based on the article, returning starters only matter if a team has 20+. Also, it is necessary to look at who the returning starters are rather than just looking at the total number.
Also, it is interesting to note that teams don't get better with more experience. Seems counter-intuitive.
The article and graphs were interesting, but it would be more valuable to compare previous year's ELO with the ELO for the first two or three or four weeks of the next season to see whether returning starters make a difference early on.
That is an interesting thought MW. The only problem I see with that is strength of schedule. Many teams play cupcakes the first few weeks of the season, while others play tough non conference games. If there was a way to adjust for that, I would consider looking into it.