Oklahoma +7 (-109)...got this at pinnacle on Saturday night...is a pretty even match-up in my opinion on a neutral field...I'll take the touchdown and the coach/ team with the edge in the rivalry...Thompson has really shown me he can throw the ball, which I had doubts about at the beginning of the year...not sure I like this as much at +4...
Maryland +14 (-105)...got this at pinnacle on Sunday morning...Georgia Tech had a huge emotional game last week where they played and beat an overrated Virginia Tech squad...they are known for these types of wins (Auburn last year, Miami last year) but are also known to play to the level of their competition...I know that Maryland has struggled a little bit, but an in-conference game like this at two TD's is a lot in my opinion...Reggie Ball still had two INT's and he should have a couple more this week...
SMU a no play as of 2:01 AM PST
have added Oklahoma St. -3 (-110)....got this at legendz...like what Mike Gundy's doing with his team right now as they have some real playmakers on offense...Bobby Reid is an excellent QB and Mike Hamilton's a great RB...Kansas St. is having some major issues on offense and will start a freshman QB along with a freshman RB in this one...it's tough to win on the road in teh Big 12, but I think the Cowboys can do so here...
Purdue +11.5 (+102)...I've watched these guys the last two weeks and they have some playmakers (which Iowa doesn't, Tate can't do it all himself and the running game is average at best)...I also think Iowa's defense isn't much better than Purdue's...granted this is at home, but you have to wonder how Iowa will respond at the beginning of the game, as they put their whole season into trying to beat Ohio St. and didn't even come close...one last thing is that Purdue continued to play hard the whole 60 minutes vs. Notre Dame...I don't think they expected to win the game and thus aren't that dissapointed, whereas with Iowa I really started to see them shut it down (except for Tate, man that guy is awesome) because they really thought they'd win...flawed logic on my part possibly, but I'm going with it...
Kentucky +7 (-110)...played this Sunday night at betcris...everyone else was showing 6.5 and pinny wanted -120, which I wouldn't pay...somehow, cris was still showing 7, so I took it...I actually had Kentucky as a slight favorite in this one...have gotten to watch them play three times now (as well as having watched So. Carolina play 3 times)...should actually be a great game, so I'll take the home team and the TD...
Kansas +2.5 (-110)...played this Sunday night at betjam...everyone else was showing 1.5 so I took it as well...I'm watching the tape of this Nebraska vs. Kansas tape and I am very impressed with the fight in this team...and now they are getting almost a full FG with the home team, with the better coach, with the better defense...hmm, looks like a value play to me...
Arizona +12...actually have yet to play it as I'm going to wait for cascade to come out with their numbers tommorrow (still have to meet a small rollover there, great book btw, if either of you guys ever sign up make sure to use me as the referrer)...third time watching UCLA last night and this is just not the same team as last year...fortunately the coaching match-up is even because both Dorrell and Stoops are dipshits...Arizona's D is pretty damn tough and Tuitama has played better the last three games...Arizona is much better as a dog...both teams have good kickers...if Olson struggles with his accuracy, the secondary of Arizona will make him pay...just seems like this line should be closer to 8.5...
I noticed that oak/texas game came down quite a bit. Being that it's a big rivalery game, i'm still not convinced that OU is the play despite there recent dominance in there recent meetings.
I think you hit the Purdue-Iowa game on the head. I have to much emotion going on the game to bet it but I think Purdue ought to cover. Just hope Hawks win the game. gl pags.
Good luck to you this week Pags. Good to see that most of our plays match (I'm on Purdue, Sooners, Arizona, Kansas). I know you don't play totals but I also hit Arizona/UCLA under for a good chunk...both teams are going to have a hell of a time scoring IMO. I'm a homer but I've tagged Purdue as my top play...I've watched them the last 4 weeks and honestly can say I haven't seen a Joe Tiller coached team improve as much as they have from game to game. I started out the year fading them and playing overs but I saw something in that Ball State game a few weeks back that has given me some optimism on this team. The play calling is SO MUCH improved from last year (good riddance John Chaney) and you've got a QB who doesn't try to force it in to his #1 target (evidence is the freshman's breakout day and Dorien Bryant only getting a few balls sent his way). The offensive line has absolutely been stellar giving up 0 sacks in the last two games although ND got some pressure on Painter in the 2nd half when they knew Purdue had to throw. You have to love the composure of Painter though for how long he stays in the pocket unfazed...I wasn't so sure about him when he took over the job last year as a frosh but I believe he's the real deal and a great fit for the offense. The defense is still mediocre at best but believe it or not has improved. 2 Juco's and 2 Frosh in the secondary will continue to make mistakes but also continue to improve rapidly (they still have a long way to go). One help has been Anthony Spencer's ability to get to the QB and hide the in inexperience of the secondary a little bit.
I think most likely this game goes back and forth all day but with the the explosiveness of Purdue's offense even if Iowa breaks open a good lead I like the chances for atleast a backdoor cover. An outright W would not surprise me.
As always I love your write-ups and you've got me checking into that Maryland game because of it. Good luck this week.
excellent post!...I must say that I too was very skeptical of Purdue the first couple of weeks...after watching them play Notre Dame last week, I was pretty impressed...sounds like you're a pretty knowledgeable guy when it comes to college football...feel free to chime into my threads anytime you want...excellent stuff...
Phil,
taking a break is never a bad thing my friend...I appreciate you rooting for me though!...
dave,
yeah, with 18 to 22 year old athletes I've learned anything can happen, especially come conference time...GL to you...
Living in Lawerence, KS lets me see alot about what is going on with the Kansas football team. Mangino has said in several interviews that this team is definitely ready for this game so take it for what it's worth, but this is one game I see the jayhawks winning outright. I will be there to watch it happen!!
pags, you know I think Purdue gets smoked here - worst defense in major college football not in the Pac-10 - but I really like everything else. I played two of those myself, and I really wish I would have played Jelly when 7 was available.
I think at the end of the year we're going to look back and wonder why Oklahoma wasn't a 7 point favorite in this game.
Have fun in Lawrence gambler. I think you have a great coach in Mangino, and I'm betting you win that one as well.
I fuckin' sucked today...top it off with a chase play (which you should never do) of Nevada +14...don't know if anyone watched the game, but I was damn fortunate to cover...
I thought Purdue was a pretty bad pick...Kansas was a tough loss, as was Oklahoma St...Arizona had it 1st and 10 from the UCLA twelve down 13 with 5 mins. left and threw a pick six and Kentucky got a push but could have easily covered or lost the cover...what a fuckin' crazy day...
pags, i am sorry you have had a rough few weeks. don't get discouraged, tommorow is another day. i am actually pumped about next weeks ncaa card. lots of good games, and i think we will see a few more obvious stand outs this week as teams are coming into stride. same with the nfl. i learned this week indy is vunerable, and can be beat. any given sunday baby, any given sunday. best of luck next week pags, let's get em next saturday
thanks bud...I appreciate the kind words...played Miami OH today +13.5 so I ended up 3-5-1 on the week...could of been a lot better, but could have been a lot worse...thanks again...
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