With the game being played in Nashville, look for Louisville to have a tough time covering the big spread against Middle Tennessee St.
Granted, Louisville ranks among the best teams in the country. However, the Blue Raiders are getting a ton of points and are coming off a confidence-building 35-0 victory at North Texas.
The Middle Tennessee State defense was particularly dominant in the win over the rival Mean Green. North Texas managed just eight first downs and 103 yards of total offense, including only 31 in the first half, and advanced into Blue Raiders' territory only once. With that result, the Blue Raiders are now 4-2 ATS the past two seasons when getting points. Looking back a bit further, we find them at 10-7 ATS the past 17 times they were listed as double-digit underdogs.
Although they are still loaded with weapons, the Cardinals are playing without a pair of preseason Heisman Trophy favorites, running back Michael Bush and quarterback Brian Brohm. Playing without those stars, the Cardinals were only able to manage 24 points in their most recent game, a 24-6 win on 9/23 at Kansas State. Backup quarterback Hunter Cantwell was inconsistent, throwing for just 173 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
This game will be televised on ESPN2 and played at Nashville, which is 35 miles from the Middle Tennessee campus and 175 miles away from Louisville. With a rare chance to play in front of a television audience, look for an inspired effort from the Blue Raiders as they hang within the generous number and improve to 7-2 ATS the last nine times they played before a bye. Consider taking the generous points with the home dog.
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Ben Burns: MidTenn +33 vs. Louisville
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