Originally Posted by
Jeff Grant
Air Force Falcons
-Head coach Troy Calhoun is 20-14 ATS on the road (2-10 ATS home favorite L2 years)
-Gone 42-14 SU against Army and Navy since 1984
-Graduated 27 seniors in 2011
-The team is the least experienced group in college football coming into the year
Offense (3)
-FB Mike DeWitt is the strength of the rushing attack, rushing for 12 touchdowns and gaining 567 yards on the ground
-WR position will be a revolving door, by committee
-Two starters return on the offensive line, while junior center Michael Husar Jr. could be the best player the program has had in the last six years
Defense (3)
-One regular returns in the secondary
-Lose five of their top seven DL from a year ago
-Defense allowed the most ppg since 2005
-New coordinator Charlton Warren promises to be more aggressive
Special Teams
-Leading kickoff and punt returners are gone
-Kicker Parker Herrington was a first-team All-Mountain West selection
-Junior punter David Baska averaged 40.8 yards per punt
Schedule
18-3 SU in home openers, winners of their L7 by 32 ppg (Idaho State)
4-5 SU in true road games versus BCS teams (Michigan)
9-1 SU L10 meetings, including five in a row by 18 ppg (UNLV)
6-0 SU by 19 ppg (Colorado State)
22-2 SU and haven’t lost in West Point since 1996 (Army)
11-4 SU in home finales (Hawaii)
4-2 SU in six meetings (Fresno State)
Betting Trends
1-8 ATS, 0-4 ATS L4 at home (Navy)
7-1 ATS, 4-1 ATS L5 at home (New Mexico)
7-0 ATS L7 away (Army)
Betting Trends to Monitor
8-0 ATS versus non-conference opponent off SU loss (Michigan)
Akron Zips
-Terry Bowden enters his first year, 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS versus losing teams in his career
-Bowden went 47-17-1 at Auburn (1993-98), posting the best opening, five-year run of any head football coach in school history
-Program is coming off back-to-back 1-11 seasons, seven of their losses last year were by 32 points or more
-Finished 0-8 in MAC play, out-gained by 177 ypg, 50 ypg worse than the next team
Offense (8)
-Installing a no-huddle attack
-Dalton Williams, fifth-year senior transfer from Stephen F. Austin is a likely candidate to run the team’s spread offense
-RB Jawon Chisholm averaged 4.4 yards per car carry, only program player other than the kicker to be ranked in the top 10 in a major offensive category
-Three of the top four receivers return
Defense (5)
-New coordinator Chuck Amato will bring an aggressive style, high-risk, high-reward
-Nation’s top returning tackler transferred to Arizona
-Likely have to mix up zone and man before installing Amato’s bump-and-run style
-Six of top eight are back in the secondary
Special Teams
-Redshirt freshman kicker Robert Stein made 15 of 19 FGs as a high school player, replaces A.J. Fox
-Redshirt freshman Zach Paul will handle the punting duties, first collegiate experience
-Averaged 17.6 yards per kickoff and 4.3 yards per punt return
Schedule
5-2 SU, including two straight wins (UCF)
12-12-2 SU versus Sun Belt, lost 18 straight true road openers by 29 ppg (FIU)
0-5 SU versus SEC, outscored on average 51-4 (Tennessee)
0-4 SU in MAC openers, losing by an average of 30 ppg (Miami OH)
0-3 SU by 15 ppg (Bowling Green)
0-4 SU by 16 ppg, never lost five in a row in series history (Ohio)
1-8 SU, including five straight losses by 10 ppg (Central Michigan)
11-4 SU in rivalry, lost B/B games (Kent State)
0-4 SU at Glass Bowl, average score 39-11 (Toledo)
Betting Trends
0-4 ATS L4 meetings, 0-3 ATS L3 home (Bowling Green)
0-4 ATS L4 meetings, 0-3 ATS L4 away (Ohio)
Alabama Crimson Tide
-Head coach Nick Saban is 1-4 DD favorite after a SU loss (3-8 ATS overall in that situation)
-Closest conference win of last year was 17 points
-No team has ever repeated as national champion during the BCS era
-Returned nine starters from its 2009 championship team, went 10-3
-Last team to allow less than 10 ppg and 250 ypg in the same season was USC in 2008, they went 9-4 SU and 4-9 ATS the next year
Offense (6)
-QB AJ McCarron was the offensive MVP in becoming the first sophomore QB to win the BCS title game
-RB Eddie Lacy ran for 674 yards on 95 carries (7.1 average) despite having a toe injury that limited his carriers and practice time
-May possess the nation’s top offensive line with four returners (95 career starts)
-New coordinator Doug Nussmeier from Washington
Defense (5)
-Replacing three All-Americans in the secondary, allowed 4.3 ypa attempt last year
Special Teams
-Ranked 14th and 19th nationally in punt and kickoff returns respectively
-Senior Jeremy Shelley made 21 of 27 FGs attempts last year
-Opponents managed just 51 punt return yards last year
Schedule
13-0 SU previous national champion, average win of 45-13 (Michigan)
10-0 SU in home openers, average win by 26 ppg (WKU)
5-0 SU L5 meetings (Arkansas)
17-1 SU versus Sun Belt Conference (FAU)
16-4 SU in SEC away games under Saban (Missouri)
5-0 SU L5 meetings (Tennessee)
4-0 SU L4 meetings, losing school hasn’t topped 17 points in L14 (Miss St)
16-4 SU hosting SEC opponents L5 years (Texas A&M)
Home team is 0-3 SU in Iron Bowl (Auburn)
Betting Trends
5-1 ATS L6 meetings, 5-0 ATS away (Tennessee)
2-5 ATS L7 meetings (Auburn)
Betting Trends to Monitor
0-4-2 ATS off SU dog win (Texas A&M after LSU)
Arizona Wildcats
-Head coach Rich Rodriguez is 17-14 SU & 10-19-2 ATS during his career at home against winning teams
-Hired first before three other new coaches in the Pac-12 this year
-Passed more than any other conference team a year ago (63.6 percent), will change in 2012
-Play eight games in Tuscon this year, including three non-conf to start the season
-Both coordinators have previous experience with Rodriguez
-Were out-gained by just 11.9 ypg despite a 2-7 conf record
Offense (6)
-QB Matt Scott is a fifth-year senior, capable of running the spread
-Rodriguez considers the running back position to be the deepest unit offensively
-Lost the top three receivers from a year ago
-Offensive line returns all five starters, adjusting to new scheme, going from pass protect 80 percent to run blocking 50 percent
Defense (6)
-Produced just 10 QB sacks last year, fewest since 1978
-Introducing a 3-3-5 odd-stack defense
-Ranked 119th out of 120 in pass defense a year ago
-Return seven linemen with starting experience
Special Teams
-Eighth in kickoff returns (21.0) and ninth in punt returns (4.7)
-Senior kicker John Bonano made all 24 PATs, eight of 12 FGs
-Senior punter Kyle Dugandzic led the Pac-12 in averaging 46.0 yards per punt
Schedule
11-0 SU L11 home openers, winning by an average of 27 ppg (Toledo)
12-6 SU in non-conference games since conference went to nine-game schedule (SC State)
1-8 SU L9 trips to Eugene, 0-10 SU road openers versus BCS by 21 ppg (Oregon)
2-11 SU L13 meetings (Oregon St)
2-7 SU L9 meetings (Stanford)
Home team has won L4 meetings (Washington)
1-9 SU L10 meetings (USC)
5-0 SU L5 meetings (UCLA)
1-13 SU L14 meetings (Colorado)
Betting Trends
2-11 ATS L13 meetings, 0-5 ATS at home (Oregon State)
6-1 ATS L7 meetings (USC)
Betting Trends to Monitor
10-0 ATS as conference road dogs of four or more points w/revenge (Stanford)
0-11 ATS away after scoring 35 or more points (Oregon after playing SC State)
Arizona State Sun Devils
-School is 255-54-5 all-time when it has a 100-yard rusher
-Gone 12-12-1 SU all-time in bowl games
-Head coach Todd Graham’s teams from 2008-10 were ranked in the top 11 in the country in fewest penalties per game, ASU has finished last in this category in two of the last four years
-Graham’s Tulsa teams led the nation in total offense in B/B seasons (2007-08)
-Haven’t won a non-conf road games since 2006
Offense (4)
-RB Cameron Marshall is the Pac-12’s active career leader in rushing TDs (29)
-Five scholarship WRs are gone from last year
-Line features two players with over 20 career starts, unit replacing five seniors that started at some point
-Graham’s teams have rushed the ball 54.9 percent of the time since 2010 (ASU above 52.9 percent passing the L2 years)
-No huddle offense
Defense (4)
-Four of top six tacklers leave the LB position
-Every player to see action in 2011 returns in the secondary, ranked 108th in the country in allowing 273 passing ypg
-First string corners started all 13 games a year ago
-Line to be one of the team’s strengths
-New 3-3-5 defensive scheme
-Allowed an average of 40 ppg over their last five games
Special Teams
-Ranked in the top 10 in both punt and kick return averages in 2011, leading the Pac-12 in both categories
-Sophomore kicker Alex Garoutte made 15 of 22 FGs
-Ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in averaging 41.3 yards per punt, but 24 kicks landed inside the 20
Schedule
12-0-1 SU in series, won 13 straight home openers by 30 ppg (NAU)
0-4 SU in road openers, 0-5 SU vs. SEC teams - losing by eight ppg (Missouri)
8-0 SU L8 meetings (Utah)
0-5 SU L5 away (Cal)
0-7 SU L7 meetings by an average of 20 ppg (Oregon)
7-1 SU L8 meetings, streak snapped last year (Wazzu)
3-0 SU L3 meetings (Arizona)
Betting Trends
2-7 ATS L9 meetings, 0-6 ATS L6 away (California)
2-7 ATS L9 meetings (UCLA)
5-1-1 ATS L7 meetings (USC)
Betting Trends to Monitor
Head coach Todd Graham is 6-0 ATS as a underdog w/rest (Colorado)
11-2 ATS as non-conf home favorites of 24 pts or less (Illinois)
0-9 ATS as underdogs of two or more points in 2nd of B/B road games (USC)
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
College Football Preseason Handicapping Report
Smutbucket gave Jeff Grant 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Reply With Quote
