Quant's College Football Bowl Thread with write-ups
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RenegadesSBR Hall of Famer
- 10-12-11
- 5290
#36Comment -
A QuantSBR MVP
- 05-14-18
- 1357
#37Knocking it out brother! Good Job!! I managed to lose twice on the same game last night, but only about -140 as opposed to +375 on Utah State! 2-2 +2 units so far.
I guess you'll get around to every game but any thoughts on Syracuse/WV and Miss State/Iowa? I'm also considering Texas A&M -6.5 > NC State. You already had SEC vs ACC but then you subtract NC State's top LB with over 100 tackles/6 sacks and top WR with 81 catches and almost 1200 yards!
Are you a cfb junkie like me that watches all over or do you normally specialize within a certain region?
I will sprinkle some in college hoops in February, but that's it. I never bet the NFL, I never bet the NBA.
It's a 9 month grind-- gathering data, creating power numbers, knowing each team-- it's a really tough grind, but I love it. So, yeah, I am a pure CFBALL junkie.
Right now I lean Syracuse, and love Mississippi State.Comment -
clockwise1965SBR Hall of Famer
- 10-01-13
- 6753
#38Great stuff!Comment -
Mike HuntertzSBR Posting Legend
- 08-19-09
- 11207
#40Good stuff, let's win it.Comment -
BigdaddyQHSBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-09
- 19530
#4195% of all wagers I make are only college football.
I will sprinkle some in college hoops in February, but that's it. I never bet the NFL, I never bet the NBA.
It's a 9 month grind-- gathering data, creating power numbers, knowing each team-- it's a really tough grind, but I love it. So, yeah, I am a pure CFBALL junkie.
Right now I lean Syracuse, and love Mississippi State.
I do like putting a few bucks on the ponies, but that is for recreation. I will spend 200-500 at the track just for parking, seats, and food for my family and myself, depending on how many people are in my party. Winning a few races is just icing on the cake. I consider this entertainment. Just like someone spending $500.00 on concert tickets.Comment -
Fred The HammerSBR Posting Legend
- 08-13-13
- 11579
#42CFB is much more beatable then the NFL, but I will say this. If you watch the games on Sunday and have any success (or interest) in fantasy football then the NFL player props are completely beatable! I've been cleaning up on those for years. Of course some years are better then others. I used to be Mr Handicapable (bad taste I know) on here until my login screwed up and I had to change names. I once had like a 25-6 streak or something in NFL props when I was Mr H. I recommend those highly! Some of the lines are gifts if you shop between 5D, Heritage, and BovadaComment -
Fred The HammerSBR Posting Legend
- 08-13-13
- 11579
#43Ohio -5.5 (+155) on 5d's alternate lines but I was maxed out on Ohio. SDS is 3-9 ats....they suck! Shoulda/woulda/coulda but this should've been a 4 unit play for me tooComment -
Fred The HammerSBR Posting Legend
- 08-13-13
- 11579
#44
Comment -
A QuantSBR MVP
- 05-14-18
- 1357
#45
I do not love today's game-- but I do think there is value in a small play. I'll write it up shortly.Comment -
A QuantSBR MVP
- 05-14-18
- 1357
#46BAD BOY MOWERS GASPARILLA BOWL Marshall (-3) v. South Florida
Updated record 6-1, +15.7 units.
I have learned one thing-- when you catch a streak (and they are rare) don't shrink back, don't turtle up. I am not going to force anything, and piss away profit, but I am going to make a play.
This is a home game for USF. That is the only reason to even consider taking them. They are playing this game in Raymond James. USF is a bad football team--- they had 1-- ONE---1-- win over a team that is going to a bowl game (Georgia Tech).
And, there is that 5 game losing streak to close out the season, where USF lost at home to Tulane by 26 and UCF by 28.
At home they gave up 30 to Connecticut. To Connecticut.
Where do we begin? Oh yeah, USF can't stop anyone from running the football. They give up almost 250 yards/game on the ground, giving up around 225 in 6 of their last 7 games, I forgot-- they also gave up 22 rushing TDs in that same span.
Marshall is better in just about every metric I can come up with, so why is this game just at -3?
Because Marshall really likes turning the ball over. They have given it up 24 times, in 7 games they gave up 2 or more. But that is something that can be fixed, coached up--- USF is not going to be able to stop Marshall from running the football, they only hope they have is forcing turnovers-- but USF isn't that good at doing that either.
FEI's all clearly pointing to Marshall--- they have more tackles for loss, more sacks, better 3rd down defense, on offense, Marshall is more consistent, they have better OL play, and they can run it.
USF very inconsistent offensively--- helter/skelter--- they don't run it with consistent success, and they won't be able to keep Marshall off balance.
The play here is Marshall -3.
Risking 3.3/3
Good luck guys.Comment -
surviveSBR MVP
- 01-08-11
- 2388
#47BAD BOY MOWERS GASPARILLA BOWL Marshall (-3) v. South Florida
Updated record 6-1, +15.7 units.
I have learned one thing-- when you catch a streak (and they are rare) don't shrink back, don't turtle up. I am not going to force anything, and piss away profit, but I am going to make a play.
This is a home game for USF. That is the only reason to even consider taking them. They are playing this game in Raymond James. USF is a bad football team--- they had 1-- ONE---1-- win over a team that is going to a bowl game (Georgia Tech).
And, there is that 5 game losing streak to close out the season, where USF lost at home to Tulane by 26 and UCF by 28.
At home they gave up 30 to Connecticut. To Connecticut.
Where do we begin? Oh yeah, USF can't stop anyone from running the football. They give up almost 250 yards/game on the ground, giving up around 225 in 6 of their last 7 games, I forgot-- they also gave up 22 rushing TDs in that same span.
Marshall is better in just about every metric I can come up with, so why is this game just at -3?
Because Marshall really likes turning the ball over. They have given it up 24 times, in 7 games they gave up 2 or more. But that is something that can be fixed, coached up--- USF is not going to be able to stop Marshall from running the football, they only hope they have is forcing turnovers-- but USF isn't that good at doing that either.
FEI's all clearly pointing to Marshall--- they have more tackles for loss, more sacks, better 3rd down defense, on offense, Marshall is more consistent, they have better OL play, and they can run it.
USF very inconsistent offensively--- helter/skelter--- they don't run it with consistent success, and they won't be able to keep Marshall off balance.
The play here is Marshall -3.
Risking 3.3/3
Good luck guys.Comment -
albinosharkSBR High Roller
- 10-16-13
- 124
#48Love this thread!
Agree 100% again with you here....not to mention QB for USF Barnett is iffy...he is questionable tonight with a shoulder and ankle injury. Barnett is NOT Flowers (past USF QB). He finalized his season on the bench. Barnett (USF) has 11 TDs and 11 interceptions on the season. The kid hasn't thrown a TD since Halloween! Agree that the offense has a whole has been very flat lately. In last 4 games they have had 16.25 points/game. Green QB for Marshall has had 15 TD's and 10 interceptions, while its not lights out he has looked better in his last 5 games going 6-3.
QB for Marshall is much more stable than UCF.
I also believe the spread would of been a few points higher if USF weren't playing at home. Yes more fans for USF show up, but Marshall gets it done with their much better Defense. As of now looks like a 25% to 38% chance of rain at kickoff. Lines at -3.5. Grab it at 3 later tonight.Comment -
Horse PlayerSBR High Roller
- 12-20-18
- 164
#49FNG here. I've been following this site for about a couple months, but this thread caused me to register.
First, amazing start Quant! I'm truly in awe.
As the nick says, I'm a horse guy. This year, I called my gambling buddy for over 30 years and said I wanted to bet some college football with him. He laughed and told me to join his CFB pool to get my feet wet. We pick any 6 games a week ATS and most wins win the week after tie breaker. There is a separate "6 and 0" pool that rolls over until someone goes 6-0. Seemed easy enough. After starting 1-5, 0-6, and 0-6 (there is a $ penalty for 0-6), i went looking for information. Here I am. I did win a week with a 5-1. Was 5-0 and then Oregon State wet the bed. This site reminds me of some horsey boards from years ago. Good vibe.
The reason for this post. I'm in the Tampa area. It rained a little at lunch yesterday, stopped, and then starting raining driving home, and has been raining ever since - still is. Local news says it should start to clear about 4PM. Not sure if clear means stopped. Local sports radio this morning said the tarp went down on RayJay at 6PM yesterday and still sits. IF the clearing at 4PM holds true, the stadium will be soaked, but the field should be good to go. However, there is still a chance for some rain up to kickoff. IMO, the only thing this guarantees is poor attendance from the USF faithful and very little home field advantage, if any. Local craft beer and big screens will win the night.
My pick here isn't important because newbies have no cred. But I have learned to respect the line as a general rule. Kinda like a well bet first time starter. 3 points is a head scratcher to me. Maybe the thought of a wet ball has suppressed it?
Thanks for the site and all the discussion. Great place!!Comment -
BigdaddyQHSBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-09
- 19530
#50The favorites in the bowl games are 7-0 ML. There is no reason to change that now. Charlie Strong has lost this team. NO surprise there. Marshall or no play. There is a decent chance that the favorites go 10-0 ML before Saturday's action.Comment -
A QuantSBR MVP
- 05-14-18
- 1357
#51FNG here. I've been following this site for about a couple months, but this thread caused me to register.
First, amazing start Quant! I'm truly in awe.
As the nick says, I'm a horse guy. This year, I called my gambling buddy for over 30 years and said I wanted to bet some college football with him. He laughed and told me to join his CFB pool to get my feet wet. We pick any 6 games a week ATS and most wins win the week after tie breaker. There is a separate "6 and 0" pool that rolls over until someone goes 6-0. Seemed easy enough. After starting 1-5, 0-6, and 0-6 (there is a $ penalty for 0-6), i went looking for information. Here I am. I did win a week with a 5-1. Was 5-0 and then Oregon State wet the bed. This site reminds me of some horsey boards from years ago. Good vibe.
The reason for this post. I'm in the Tampa area. It rained a little at lunch yesterday, stopped, and then starting raining driving home, and has been raining ever since - still is. Local news says it should start to clear about 4PM. Not sure if clear means stopped. Local sports radio this morning said the tarp went down on RayJay at 6PM yesterday and still sits. IF the clearing at 4PM holds true, the stadium will be soaked, but the field should be good to go. However, there is still a chance for some rain up to kickoff. IMO, the only thing this guarantees is poor attendance from the USF faithful and very little home field advantage, if any. Local craft beer and big screens will win the night.
My pick here isn't important because newbies have no cred. But I have learned to respect the line as a general rule. Kinda like a well bet first time starter. 3 points is a head scratcher to me. Maybe the thought of a wet ball has suppressed it?
Thanks for the site and all the discussion. Great place!!
We are all in this together---- sharing information is important, and always welcomed in my thread!Comment -
A QuantSBR MVP
- 05-14-18
- 1357
#52Love this thread!
Agree 100% again with you here....not to mention QB for USF Barnett is iffy...he is questionable tonight with a shoulder and ankle injury. Barnett is NOT Flowers (past USF QB). He finalized his season on the bench. Barnett (USF) has 11 TDs and 11 interceptions on the season. The kid hasn't thrown a TD since Halloween! Agree that the offense has a whole has been very flat lately. In last 4 games they have had 16.25 points/game. Green QB for Marshall has had 15 TD's and 10 interceptions, while its not lights out he has looked better in his last 5 games going 6-3.
QB for Marshall is much more stable than UCF.
I also believe the spread would of been a few points higher if USF weren't playing at home. Yes more fans for USF show up, but Marshall gets it done with their much better Defense. As of now looks like a 25% to 38% chance of rain at kickoff. Lines at -3.5. Grab it at 3 later tonight.Comment -
HmanSBR Posting Legend
- 11-04-17
- 21429
#53BAD BOY MOWERS GASPARILLA BOWL Marshall (-3) v. South Florida
Updated record 6-1, +15.7 units.
I have learned one thing-- when you catch a streak (and they are rare) don't shrink back, don't turtle up. I am not going to force anything, and piss away profit, but I am going to make a play.
This is a home game for USF. That is the only reason to even consider taking them. They are playing this game in Raymond James. USF is a bad football team--- they had 1-- ONE---1-- win over a team that is going to a bowl game (Georgia Tech).
And, there is that 5 game losing streak to close out the season, where USF lost at home to Tulane by 26 and UCF by 28.
At home they gave up 30 to Connecticut. To Connecticut.
Where do we begin? Oh yeah, USF can't stop anyone from running the football. They give up almost 250 yards/game on the ground, giving up around 225 in 6 of their last 7 games, I forgot-- they also gave up 22 rushing TDs in that same span.
Marshall is better in just about every metric I can come up with, so why is this game just at -3?
Because Marshall really likes turning the ball over. They have given it up 24 times, in 7 games they gave up 2 or more. But that is something that can be fixed, coached up--- USF is not going to be able to stop Marshall from running the football, they only hope they have is forcing turnovers-- but USF isn't that good at doing that either.
FEI's all clearly pointing to Marshall--- they have more tackles for loss, more sacks, better 3rd down defense, on offense, Marshall is more consistent, they have better OL play, and they can run it.
USF very inconsistent offensively--- helter/skelter--- they don't run it with consistent success, and they won't be able to keep Marshall off balance.
The play here is Marshall -3.
Risking 3.3/3
Good luck guys.
GL quantComment -
Fred The HammerSBR Posting Legend
- 08-13-13
- 11579
#55Picked up Over 53.5 live with 3 min left and they scored 10 points!!!
A Quant....think you're going 7-1! I just couldn't make the call. I haven't seen Marshall all year and only saw USF once. I guess I was a little worried about homefield, but what are 15k people going to do? I'm hoping Hawaii can atleast get the crowd going and make a homefield advantage?Comment -
A QuantSBR MVP
- 05-14-18
- 1357
#56It's getting crazy boys---
Now 7-1, and plus 18.1 units.
And the best part-- I already had my Toledo bet locked on Monday. I'll post my write-up tomorrow.Comment -
A QuantSBR MVP
- 05-14-18
- 1357
#57MAKERS WANTED BAHAMAS BOWL Toledo (-6) v. FIU
So, now I stand at 7-1, +18.1 units.
And it's obviously been a favorites bowl season-- that will change, no doubt, but not today.
This game will not remind anyone of great defensive football--- both teams struggle to stop opposing teams, but Florida International worse.
In case you have not guessed-- I use every bit of analytics that I can find when I pick a side--- some I have learned offer predictable patterns (not absolutes, just predictable), among them-- 3rd down conversion rates, ability to stop the run, ability to run, pressures, tackles for loss, FEIs, S&P's---
Now the nuggets for this game....
FIU played the easiest schedule in 1-A football, not just this year--- but in the last 13 years, this was the easiest schedule for any team playing 1-A football.
With that schedule-- FIU's defensive FEI was 113th.
Toledo for all their defensive shortcomings-- and they do have them, still has better defensive metrics across the board compared to FIU.
Now, on offense-- that is where it turns sharply toward Toledo.
FIU QB James Morgan is out--- he was a grad transfer from BGSU--- and he put up decent numbers--- 2700 yards +, 27tds, just 7 picks...they move on to Christian Alexander, who is a better runner than Morgan, but not the same passer.
Toledo on the other hand is not going to throw the ball all over the field-- they are going to run it, and run it, and run it-- and FIU will not be able to stop them.
As this game plays out-- I expect some trading of scores early, but Toledo's ability to convert, and keep moving the chains will put FIU in a position where they simply will not be able to match Toledo score for score-- and Toledo will pull away.
To sum.
Defensive metrics all point to Toledo.
Offensive metrics-- all Toledo with Morgan's injury.
Toledo is the pick, (-6).
Risking 4.4/4
Good luck.Comment -
surviveSBR MVP
- 01-08-11
- 2388
#58Keep it rolling man! Already took Toledo and wmu/BYU over 49...thinking BYU can name their score if they want to, might play BYU tt over 31. Interested to hear your thoughtsComment -
leetreaperBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 10-23-10
- 34841
#59MAKERS WANTED BAHAMAS BOWL Toledo (-6) v. FIU
So, now I stand at 7-1, +18.1 units.
And it's obviously been a favorites bowl season-- that will change, no doubt, but not today.
This game will not remind anyone of great defensive football--- both teams struggle to stop opposing teams, but Florida International worse.
In case you have not guessed-- I use every bit of analytics that I can find when I pick a side--- some I have learned offer predictable patterns (not absolutes, just predictable), among them-- 3rd down conversion rates, ability to stop the run, ability to run, pressures, tackles for loss, FEIs, S&P's---
Now the nuggets for this game....
FIU played the easiest schedule in 1-A football, not just this year--- but in the last 13 years, this was the easiest schedule for any team playing 1-A football.
With that schedule-- FIU's defensive FEI was 113th.
Toledo for all their defensive shortcomings-- and they do have them, still has better defensive metrics across the board compared to FIU.
Now, on offense-- that is where it turns sharply toward Toledo.
FIU QB James Morgan is out--- he was a grad transfer from BGSU--- and he put up decent numbers--- 2700 yards +, 27tds, just 7 picks...they move on to Christian Alexander, who is a better runner than Morgan, but not the same passer.
Toledo on the other hand is not going to throw the ball all over the field-- they are going to run it, and run it, and run it-- and FIU will not be able to stop them.
As this game plays out-- I expect some trading of scores early, but Toledo's ability to convert, and keep moving the chains will put FIU in a position where they simply will not be able to match Toledo score for score-- and Toledo will pull away.
To sum.
Defensive metrics all point to Toledo.
Offensive metrics-- all Toledo with Morgan's injury.
Toledo is the pick, (-6).
Risking 4.4/4
Good luck.Comment -
A QuantSBR MVP
- 05-14-18
- 1357
#60Good question, and the answer is no.
Let's break it down.
*Strength of schedule factored into these data points
FEI Defensive Ratings--- is the defensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced
Toledo ranked #90
FIU ranked #113
Defensive Drive Success rate (DDS) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive.
Toledo ranked # 73
FIU ranked # 109
Available Yards percentage (DAY) is the total number of yards surrendered by the defense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position.
Toledo ranked #65
FIU ranked #103
First Down Rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down:
Toledo ranked #56
FIU ranked #71
Ball Control Rate (DBC) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that last four plays or more.
Toledo ranked #26
FIU ranked #96
A really scary number for any FIU backers--- FIU's defense surrenders almost 5 ypc.Comment -
Fred The HammerSBR Posting Legend
- 08-13-13
- 11579
#61
Not to hijack Q's thread, but I looked over the history of the Potato Bowl and found something interesting. The most western team and their opponent are pretty close SU overall, but the western team (closest to Boise) is on a 5-1 streak with all wins by double digits! Now 2016 was Col St and Idaho which are both out west obviously, but Idaho won SU as a dog!
Basically look at it from the college kids point of view coming from someplace like Michigan. They're not going someplace warm like the Bahamas or Florida or Texas. They're not going anywhere interesting like San Fran or New York City. No....just cold bum fk Egypt Idaho! Wyoming with an easy beatdown last year of a MAC team. I don't see much difference this year?Comment -
BigdaddyQHSBR Posting Legend
- 07-13-09
- 19530
#62ML favorites are now 8-0. Will they make it 10-0 today? They should. This has never happened. If you followed one of the basic rules of gaming, you have made some big money. You either play on a streak or do not play at all. The reason is quite simple. If you play on a streak, you keep winning as long as the streak keeps winning, but you can only lose once.Last edited by BigdaddyQH; 12-21-18, 12:38 PM.Comment -
leetreaperBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 10-23-10
- 34841
#63ML favorites are now 8-0. Will they make it 10-0 today? They should. This has never happened. If you followed one of the basic rules of gaming, you have made some big money. You either play on a streak or do not play at all. The reason is quite simple. If you play on a streak, you keep winning as long as the streak keeps winning, but you can only lose once.Comment -
albinosharkSBR High Roller
- 10-16-13
- 124
#64A.Q. Looking ahead I don't believe the 4:00 "Potato Bowl" will be a knock out punch vs W. Mich... BUT I do believe the Cougars could exploit W. Mich with their QB issues. Eleby (QB) is 4-2 through his last 4 games so the Broncos will def look to rely on their running game. BYU's Defense may be a slight worry for Eleby. BYU had to defend MUCH better teams this year....The other exploit is W. Mich. running game stinks. They finished 73d in the regular season. I see a strong finish for BYU as they grind them down running the ball. Lines at -12 now.Comment -
A QuantSBR MVP
- 05-14-18
- 1357
#65A.Q. Looking ahead I don't believe the 4:00 "Potato Bowl" will be a knock out punch vs W. Mich... BUT I do believe the Cougars could exploit W. Mich with their QB issues. Eleby (QB) is 4-2 through his last 4 games so the Broncos will def look to rely on their running game. BYU's Defense may be a slight worry for Eleby. BYU had to defend MUCH better teams this year....The other exploit is W. Mich. running game stinks. They finished 73d in the regular season. I see a strong finish for BYU as they grind them down running the ball. Lines at -12 now.
It will be my smallest play to date.
I will have the write up shortly--- but I do like BYU. In this case, I like the number moving away from me.Comment -
eastvan09SBR MVP
- 09-30-09
- 1400
#66I like BYU but haven't placed my wager yet. The number has moved down to BYU -10.5Comment -
A QuantSBR MVP
- 05-14-18
- 1357
#67The streak died. Okay, now we are at 7-2, +13.7 units.
Not shrinking, going to keep it going.
Potato Bowl BYU (-12) v. Western Michigan
Money seem to be pouring in on WMU. As noted, it is down to 10.5 in some shops.
I got it at 12, so my bet is at 12.
BYU has a huge defensive edge, as only 2 teams topped 200 yards on the ground vs the Cougs. WMU went through a 3 game stretch where they gave up 150 points-- yeah, not good.
My power numbers have this one at BYU -15, so it doesn't scream play--
I also like the fact that WMU really struggles to stop anyone on the ground---- Again, not an absolute, but predictable.
I love tomorrow's games-- but for now, it is BYU laying the 12.
Risking 2.2/2
Hope you guys cashed FIU-- I obviously did not.Comment -
leetreaperBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 10-23-10
- 34841
#68Good question, and the answer is no.
Let's break it down.
*Strength of schedule factored into these data points
FEI Defensive Ratings--- is the defensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced
Toledo ranked #90
FIU ranked #113
Defensive Drive Success rate (DDS) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive.
Toledo ranked # 73
FIU ranked # 109
Available Yards percentage (DAY) is the total number of yards surrendered by the defense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position.
Toledo ranked #65
FIU ranked #103
First Down Rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down:
Toledo ranked #56
FIU ranked #71
Ball Control Rate (DBC) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that last four plays or more.
Toledo ranked #26
FIU ranked #96
A really scary number for any FIU backers--- FIU's defense surrenders almost 5 ypc.Comment -
leetreaperBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 10-23-10
- 34841
#69The streak died. Okay, now we are at 7-2, +13.7 units.
Not shrinking, going to keep it going.
Potato Bowl BYU (-12) v. Western Michigan
Money seem to be pouring in on WMU. As noted, it is down to 10.5 in some shops.
I got it at 12, so my bet is at 12.
BYU has a huge defensive edge, as only 2 teams topped 200 yards on the ground vs the Cougs. WMU went through a 3 game stretch where they gave up 150 points-- yeah, not good.
My power numbers have this one at BYU -15, so it doesn't scream play--
I also like the fact that WMU really struggles to stop anyone on the ground---- Again, not an absolute, but predictable.
I love tomorrow's games-- but for now, it is BYU laying the 12.
Risking 2.2/2
Hope you guys cashed FIU-- I obviously did not.Comment
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