I don't know how much anyone besides me cares about this stuff but it's been an interesting season for my ncaaf moneyline plays.
As I've mentioned before, I bet all ncaaf ML's of +200 or more (up to about +750) from week 3 on. I also use similar rules in certain situations in other sports. (Line shopping is absolutely essential.)
The ncaaf bets were freakishly profitable last year. So anyway this year started out like this:
week 3.....2-15, -10.76 units
week 4.....3-13, -3.87 units
week 5.....3-17, -6.3 units
I was starting to question everything from my past record-keeping to my sanity to my purpose for living. And I strongly considered packing it in. Even though my past results were undeniable I just thought that something had somehow gone haywire in the universe and the old rules no longer applied.
Long story short:
week 6.....9-10, +20 units.
So I'm down a little less than a unit on this system for the year.
I just wish I had've bet SMU +1300 on Saturday (not to mention South Florida +1200 in week 4). But I'm still compiling research on those more lop-sided dogs.
Anyway the moral of the story is that, if you're going to bet a lot of moneyline dogs, you better have the fortitude to deal with some serious losing streaks. But I'm telling you, it can be remarkably profitable long-term (in certain specific situations).
The other moral of the story might be that I should wait longer into the season to start with these ncaaf bets. I'm not sure about that one though. I still need to dig up the old data.
I'd be interested in any thoughts (if not actual data) on that.