[austintx05]

Still in MLB Mode, but I started looking at the lines for NCAA tonight. I developed a system last year for football which was very successful, but it factored in home field and off/def production. I startin usin it around week 5 so I could get a better feel on the production of each team.

I am looking over the lines right now and I know ND, Ohio State, Texas, Michigan, USC, Nebraska all look to be huge public bets and I just dont' like taking those DD spreads in week 1. I always am a bit precautious in the opening weeks because weird upsets seem to happen. NFL Week 1 comes ot mind last season.

There is 1 game that I am looking at right now.

UTEP @ SDST -1.5

I really like SDST laying 1.5 here. St played somes teams like TCU tough at home last year, I remember because I had TCU and it killed me. I did find some interesting stats regarding these two teams going head to head.

UTEP is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. SDST since 1989
UTEP is 6-21-1 ATS on the road in September
since 1991.
UTEP is 4-11 ATS since 2000 in non-conference
play.

UTEP is shaping up to be a public play and at almost a pick 'em, I am leaning towards SD ST.

Its gonna take me a week or so to transition into NCAA Football, because I have been in MLB Mode for so long, but I would love to hear anyone's thought and/or comments regarding this game.

Thanks.

[pags11]

I'm on UTEP and I don't consider myself a square...

[austintx05]

Why do you like UTEP?

[pags11]

Redsoxnation,

for one they have the better coach in Mike Price...I think Chuck Long's playcalling leaves a little to be desired (if you wacthed him call plays at OU)...also, slight edge in QB to UTEP, definite edge at WR to UTEP, SDSU probably has a slight edge at RB, edge to UTEP at kicker as well...defensively, these teams are very similiar, maybe a little more team speed from UTEP, but I'm not sure they're quite as physical as SDSU...

bottom line is that it's just a game that sticks out to me...I expect it to be a dog fight for a half-to three quarters with UTEP pulling away late...GL...

[bigboydan]

I haven't even really looked too indepth on this game just yet. Although, i'm a little curious on how Chuck Long will do this year. I'm just not convinced he's head coach material just yet.

[Razz]

Hate your username, like the play. I'm personally waiting, because I think they may close as the dog here.

[pags11]

Razz,

sorry we'll be against eachother in this one...yeah, I think SDSU closes as a 2-3 point dog here...justifiably so though IMO...

[austintx05]

also looking at

Tenn -1
Miami -3