Cal is forecast to be the number two team in the Pac10, and some are calling on them to overtake USC. However, the Pac10 is arguably the most balanced conference in the country, and in a 2006 Scheduling change, the Pac10 will play 2006 in a round robin. Last year, Cal avoided ASU. This year they have to play everyone.
In 2005, Cal's nonconference opponents were sacr state (W41-3), Illinois (W35-20), and at 0-12 Nmexst (W41-13). This year they pick up the game with ASU, and play Portland State, Minny, and at Ten. This will give them the 10th toughest schedule in the country according to Phil Steele. Also, they are projected to have the biggest upgrade from 2005 schedule to 2006 schedule. This is bad news for the Bears, as the last 2 years according to Phil Steele, 90% of the teams significantly upgrading their schedule do not improve their w/l record.
Cal went 8-4 last year.
I think the first game at Tennessee is going to be a very tough game, and the early season cross country travel trip may disrupt Cal's early season preparation. Bottom line, on the road this year they face Tennessee, Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, and USC. 3-2 would likely exceed my expectations. I think they go 3-2 or 2-3. Even with a 3-2, they need to run the table at home, against Minny, ASU, Oregon, UCLA, Wasington and Stanford. Remember, this Cal team lost a home game to Oregon State just last year.
I think they go 2-3 (3-2 tops) on the road, and lose at least 1 or 2 home games, and finish below 9-3.
Tedford is a great coach, but bottom line Cal's 10-win season in 2004 has to be viewed as an aberration. This has not been an elite program, and inking them into the top of the Pac10 is by no means a nobrainer at this time. Cal did return 15 starters, but lost one for the season already, senior starting CB and punt returner Tim Mixon. Cal never ranks at the top in special teams, and their special teams alone may cost them a game.
Play: Cal under 9 wins +120
Last edited by SBRforum Staff; 08-25-06 at 03:55 PM.
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