Iowa State is loaded offensively, but their defense is young and inexperienced. Look for them to be an "over" team in an "under" year.
Ten returning starters on offense should create some fireworks. But defensively, this team will take a big step back with only four returning starters. Add it up, and this team may be a bit improved over the 2005 version.
So why are we playing them under?
Well, Iowa State has a history of not being able to win eight games. Further, they have had solid teams before that tried to face such a schedule and ran out of gas. In 2002 they opened vs. No.3 FSU and lost by only seven. They won their next six, but after going through the tough part of the schedule collapsed and lost six games by season's end.
Iowa State simply does not win games versus top Big 12 teams. Ever. They also have a knack for losing close games in Big 12 action. Last year they blew three such games in OT. Normally I'd be looking to back such an "unlucky" team. But I think it will be more of the same in 2006. I cannot believe they will be able to improve on their 2005 record (7-5) with such a schedule.
According to Phil Steele, the Cyclones had the 59th toughest schedule in 2005. This year they face one of the toughest schedules in the country. The reason is that the Cyclones are trading in their bottom half Big 12 South 2005 foes (Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M) for the top half (Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech). They also have a game at Iowa, and Iowa will likely destroy this team in a payback game for the Hawkeyes 23-3 loss last year. Further, Iowa State recently put up a billboard within 30 miles of Iowa exclaiming "This is Cyclone Country," as if Iowa did not have enough emotion already. Games at Texas and Oklahoma also look to be likely losses.
With those three losses, the Cyclones will have to run the table going 9-0 or 8-1 against the following schedule:
Sure, they will win the UNLV and Northern Iowa games, but the other six likely all will be very close games. This team has a history of losing close games like this, and I just cannot see them rolling a 5-1 in them. In fact, 3-3 looks more likely to me, perhaps 4-2 with a break.
Phil Steele says it best: "Despite the negatives, the Cyclones are capable of getting to another Bowl".
I concur. They are capable of going 6-6 or maybe 7-5, with 8-4 a tremendous achievement given the schedule this team has flopped.
I might add that sites like Collegefootballnews.com are fantastic for information, but they are terribly optimistic in forecasting team results. They tend to ink in W's in all the games that a team will be favored, but reality is that every year most teams drop a game they should have won vs. lesser opposition. Iowa State lost to Baylor last year. We might call that a fluke, but they only beat Army by seven and only got by Illinois State by 11. Given that, they can certainly lose to Missouri type teams this year! To show how biased Collegefootballnews.com is, just go to every team in the Big 12 that has a season win 'over/under' posted. Not one team is forecast to go "under" their posted season win number!
The reality is that the value in all these teams is typically with the under, Oklahoma's 8-4 record in 2005 is the poster child of why betting 'over' is so damaging to one's bankroll.
Last edited by SBRforum Staff; 08-25-06 at 03:56 PM.
I wouldn't be so sure under 7.5 is a good bet, especially if they make a bowl game (which they'll likely do)...not advocating a play on the over, but this team is talented and very well coached...
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Forecast - Cyclones To Lose Strength Over Big 12
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