1. 01-09-12 01:51 PM #1
    WilliamWallace
    I AM WILLIAM WALLACE!
    WilliamWallace's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-11
    Posts: 41
    Betpoints: 0

    Can someone please explain this LSU logic?

    the spread opened at LSU -1.5

    65% of the public is currently on LSU

    but yet the spread has moved to LSU +2.5, I just don't get it.


    http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-colleg...-betting-chart
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-09-12 02:06 PM #2
    griz
    FEB 2012 POTM
    griz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-27-11
    Posts: 3,647
    Betpoints: 607

    bet LSU and then tomorrow u will get it
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-09-12 02:08 PM #3
    john230
    john230's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-11
    Posts: 721
    Betpoints: 1

    Big hitters on the TIde. Roll Tide Roll.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-09-12 02:11 PM #4
    hydrosmak
    Update your status
    hydrosmak's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-11
    Posts: 1,908
    Betpoints: 471

    It's pretty simple when you think about the fact that the books want the money split 50/50 and rake the juice. They don't want to be favoring one team to win so they don't lose their asses.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-09-12 02:14 PM #5
    ksnooksk
    ksnooksk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-18-11
    Posts: 2,890
    Betpoints: 34

    Quote Originally Posted by hydrosmak View Post
    It's pretty simple when you think about the fact that the books want the money split 50/50 and rake the juice. They don't want to be favoring one team to win so they don't lose their asses.

    Or they are convinced that Alabama wins this game and are trying to hit the jackpot. But, they must know that the sharp money has to come in on LSU at some point today.

    But, 95% of the time your explanation is the truth.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-09-12 02:21 PM #6
    Chimneyfish
    Chimneyfish's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-30-10
    Posts: 1,217
    Betpoints: 1283

    It should be noted that in the first LSU/Bama matchup, the public was on LSU while the line continued to move up to LSU +7 some places.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-09-12 02:27 PM #7
    Deuce
    Eddie Mush
    Deuce's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-08
    Posts: 29,843
    Betpoints: 3519

    More public money on LSU, more sharp money and heavy hitters on Bama.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-09-12 02:28 PM #8
    Cuse0323
    Cuse0323's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-09-09
    Posts: 30,169
    Betpoints: 87

    who knows, all a mind fck. focus on who you think the better team is.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 01-09-12 02:30 PM #9
    ksnooksk
    ksnooksk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-18-11
    Posts: 2,890
    Betpoints: 34

    Quote Originally Posted by Cuse0323 View Post
    who knows, all a mind fck. focus on who you think the better team is.

    This is definitely the truth. Vegas is looking for angles to 50/50 the money. Its always a psychological battle with them.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 01-09-12 02:38 PM #10
    sandman0713
    sandman0713's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-10-11
    Posts: 2,016
    Betpoints: 679

    Quote Originally Posted by Chimneyfish View Post
    It should be noted that in the first LSU/Bama matchup, the public was on LSU while the line continued to move up to LSU +7 some places.
    yeah that was a sweet ml...got it when it was +6. i think that is one of only two times i took ml instead of points this season in ncaa football.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 01-09-12 02:42 PM #11
    chopperocker
    Hang on baby, cuz life's a BITCH!!!
    chopperocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-16-09
    Posts: 1,784
    Betpoints: 55608

    # of wager on each side and size of the wagers on each side are never equal. basically it is telling you that the majority small unit wagers are on LSU yet the large unit wagers are on Alabama. dont read into it cuz its not gonna tell you who will win or cover. if you want to analyze it for value obviously the play would be LSU plus points, but really this game should be a pass for a wiseguy. this is a true line with adjustments made based on the current action.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 01-09-12 02:45 PM #12
    WilliamWallace
    I AM WILLIAM WALLACE!
    WilliamWallace's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-11
    Posts: 41
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by hydrosmak View Post
    It's pretty simple when you think about the fact that the books want the money split 50/50 and rake the juice. They don't want to be favoring one team to win so they don't lose their asses.

    To even out the money wouldn't they adjust spread to give bama points
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 01-09-12 02:49 PM #13
    Chimneyfish
    Chimneyfish's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-30-10
    Posts: 1,217
    Betpoints: 1283

    Quote Originally Posted by chopperocker View Post
    dont read into it cuz its not gonna tell you who will win or cover. if you want to analyze it for value obviously the play would be LSU plus points, but really this game should be a pass for a wiseguy
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 01-09-12 03:01 PM #14
    alexy
    alexy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-23-10
    Posts: 217
    Betpoints: 1864

    Just fear from bettors and books balancing their money. No more explanation
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 01-09-12 03:06 PM #15
    convick
    convick's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-03-11
    Posts: 3,805
    Betpoints: 3683

    Money is equal on each side. Number of bets aren't the same.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 01-09-12 03:17 PM #16
    chopperocker
    Hang on baby, cuz life's a BITCH!!!
    chopperocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-16-09
    Posts: 1,784
    Betpoints: 55608

    ............ and last. it is great thinking for you to question these things. never be against getting off a potential play, but never get sucked into one based on the market activity.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 01-09-12 03:20 PM #17
    sweethook
    sweethook's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-21-07
    Posts: 12,657
    Betpoints: 10452

    it means that the big BOOK as now got to the refs and bama wins. -its paid for now so line moves easy. ive got the best team but i dam sure dont have the best coach. gl
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 01-09-12 03:40 PM #18
    Dan Kelly
    Update your status
    Dan Kelly's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-19-11
    Posts: 1,332
    Betpoints: 101

    I am going to see if either team gets the first 2 scores, and then take the points with an "In Game" bet. This has been working like crazy thruout the bowl games

    super bowl box - www.ljnljn.com
    Last edited by Dan Kelly; 01-09-12 at 03:50 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 01-09-12 04:16 PM #19
    Pickem2win
    Pickem2win's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-16-11
    Posts: 978
    Betpoints: 4912

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Kelly View Post
    I am going to see if either team gets the first 2 scores, and then take the points with an "In Game" bet. This has been working like crazy thruout the bowl games

    super bowl box - www.ljnljn.com
    What site do you use?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 01-09-12 05:31 PM #20
    smoke a bowl
    smoke a bowl's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-09
    Posts: 2,776
    Betpoints: 14472

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Kelly View Post
    I am going to see if either team gets the first 2 scores, and then take the points with an "In Game" bet. This has been working like crazy thruout the bowl games

    super bowl box - www.ljnljn.com
    Thats the plan huh pal?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 01-09-12 05:39 PM #21
    PD77
    Bitches!
    PD77's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 2,365
    Betpoints: 2326

    I parlayed LSU and under the first game and will do it again tonight no matter how much bullshit I read about the "sharp" money being on Bama and the over.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Players Talk | Next Thread »