Originally Posted by
4seasons
The lure to buy or tease the LSU +2 is done in an effort to save what the Book pays out when LSU wins by 2 scores. Some will figure 2 points could be the difference, and will pay -110. Others will be lured to buy a point or so to make it +3 or +3.5, which will cost you like -130 or -140. Others will be lured to the tease, so they can make it +8, which again will cost you more juice. The Book much rather pay out on -110, -130, -140, than paying out on +120. The Book figures if you take Bama -2 or the -140 ML, buy points or tease Bama, isn't going to do you any good when LSU wins by 2 scores. All the Bama bets then lose. It's truly genius when the Book thinks LSU will win by 2 scores, to not give 2 points to Bama, but to make LSU the dog. Only the folks bold enough to take the LSU ML, will have maximized their gains. Though as you can see, many will be lured to taking the points, buying points and teasing in effort to increase their chance of winning. However, they do so by sacrificing winnings, thus reducing what the Book will have to pay out. To repeat, all the Bama bets lose, and if you take LSU and the points, buy points or tease LSU, you'll see that is was pointless to do so and you just reduced your own payout.
Now look at bodog (or bovada whatever), the most conservative Book around. Do you see their line? Do you see how they're not playing the LSU +2 game. Heck no. They have LSU as a pick 'em at -105 right now. So what does that do? Well for one, they're offering you Bama SU at -115, the by far best Bama ML anywhere. Ask yourself, why is the most conservative book offering the best Bama ML? If you like Bama, you're devouring the opportunity to have them SU at -115. Meanwhile, what LSU backer would bet LSU SU @ -105, when you can get 2 points at -110? There's no Book that will let you buy 2 points for 5 cents. A half a point costs 10 cents each. Thus, they're saying with their arms WIDE open, Bama backers welcome, and LSU backers go away.
Now look at the SBR Sportsbook, another highly conservative Book to say the least. Here they already will give you LSU and 2.5, thus making it even more alluring to those who want points (including the buying and teasing). Though they won't give you +120 on the LSU ML if your astute enough to go that way, you'll get +115. So if you buy a half point here to make it LSU +3, it will cost you -130. Risk 130 to make 100 if you have LSU +3. However, if you put that 130 on the ML @ +115, you'd win like 150 instead of just 100. That's an extra $50 payout for every $130 risked. That is HUGE! And that's what the Books are doing here.
Bowl Contest at Heritagesports has one person who has picked every bowl game right so far. This person's pick for tonight ... LSU! There are 9 listed as tied for second place, with 6 of those 9 picking LSU.
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, and not about the outcome of a meaningless game. Call it the Super Bowl of College all you want. Call it the game/team of the history of our galaxy for all I'm concerned. It's just a lousy game. That's all it is, so no need to over-analyze anymore. There is no analysis of who the zebras want to win, and that's the only anaylsis that you need to know, as that is how the game will be won.
