[FEAR THE 407]

Ok, so the first thing everyone thinks on this forum when they see a prediction is: Is this guy a bookie himself? Is this a square bet, a lock, sharp money, whatever. Most people want to focus on records, which I don't have exact numbers and plan to start next season, but i've picked 75% winners this football season, and using a local bookie had to pay 3 weeks out of the entire college\NFL season while receiving payments every other week. Again, take the credibility as you please, I have no reason to lie, I was on Clemson -2.5 last night, but made up the money at Under 38 at halftime. Anyway, to the write-up.

SMU: Started off the season with a blowout loss to A & M, then won 5 consecutive with impressive wins over UCF and TCU on the road, and three other lowly teams such as Memphis. Since then, they lost 27-3 to Southern Miss, 38-7 to Tulsa, 37-7 Houston, and have wins over garbage Tulane and Rice.

Pitt: Pitts record @ 6-6 does not tell the true story, they have losses by 4 points or less to Notre Dame, West Virginia, Cinci, and Iowa. They lost their starting running back for the year in week 9, Ray Graham, which also had many short-term effects. They are 34th in Points Against, allowing 22.4 points per contest. Notice in SMU's losses, they do not put up numbers against teams with strong defenses.

The Big East has had an impressive bowl season thus far, with Rutgers, Cinci, and West Virginia all taking care of business. I look for this to continue with Pitt, who has such a small line at -3.5 against a defenseless C-USA team.

SMU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog and Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against a team with a winning record.

Lay the points and take Pitt.

[letsgo]

Thoughts on Pitts coach abandoning them for Az State?

[FEAR THE 407]

Thoughts on Pitts coach abandoning them for Az State?

Houston's coach Sumlin left them for A & M and both of those teams won their bowl game.

The team knows the game plan and the rest of the coaches aren't slouches, it really doesn't change much for this season.

[nbr1chinchilla]

Does Pitt cover 11 in a teaser? Hope not

[vinhmen]

Thoughts on Pitts coach abandoning them for Az State?

SMU's coach June Jones lied to his team about not going anywhere, accepted the Arizona St job and while meeting with his coaches to tell them the news ASU pulled their offer. He's still coaching the team. Probably worse situation than the Pitt coach leaving.

[conrad]

Do you find the handicap line good? -3.5 on Ptts?

[Mr Handicapable]

Lean SMU...the team that beat TCU would spank Pitt but SMU lost their Peyton Hillis style RB since then which has screwed up their balance on offense. I still think June Jones is a pretty good coach and will use this time off to dig up enough offense to beat this mediocre Pitt team. SMU ML +160 in what is a tossup to me.

[FEAR THE 407]

Lean SMU...the team that beat TCU would spank Pitt but SMU lost their Peyton Hillis style RB since then which has screwed up their balance on offense. I still think June Jones is a pretty good coach and will use this time off to dig up enough offense to beat this mediocre Pitt team. SMU ML +160 in what is a tossup to me.

They beat TCU way earlier in the season.. they have dropped 4 of their last 6 with their wins over Rice and Tulane..

And this "mediocre" Pitt team held West Virginia to 21 points, who dropped 70 on Clemson. I look for this team to shut them down defensively, and the numbers show what happens to SMU when they play a good defense. Hell, they put up 7 points on Houston's defense.

I don't see how one could possibly lean SMU in this one, but best of luck on your decision.

Conrad - I see no issue with laying 3.5 points, I see them winning by double digits. Play the moneyline at -175 if it worries you, i'd almost rather pay the extra 65$ to see them lose then only win by a field goal.

[Mr Handicapable]

They beat TCU way earlier in the season.. they have dropped 4 of their last 6 with their wins over Rice and Tulane..

And this "mediocre" Pitt team held West Virginia to 21 points, who dropped 70 on Clemson. I look for this team to shut them down defensively, and the numbers show what happens to SMU when they play a good defense. Hell, they put up 7 points on Houston's defense.

I don't see how one could possibly lean SMU in this one, but best of luck on your decision.

Conrad - I see no issue with laying 3.5 points, I see them winning by double digits. Play the moneyline at -175 if it worries you, i'd almost rather pay the extra 65$ to see them lose then only win by a field goal.

I realize SMU beat TCU about 3 months ago but sometimes a team can get some new life a month after the regular season ended and play their best ball again. Clemson quit after that fumble return so WV hanging 70 doesn't matter whatsover? Its a small lean and I haven't even played it yet...I'm thinking the line will move more in Pitts favor before tomorrows kickoff. Pitt plays on grass and I think SMU & the Texas boys will have a speed advantage on field turf.