[Mr Handicapable]

Started off slow with the bowls....Utah State about killed me but now on a 6-1 run since taking Baylor 2nd half. Here we go...crunched a $hitload of numbers for these!

Nebraska/South Carolina Over 45.5

This is not your grandpa's Nebraska defense. They went 6-3 vs the 9 bowl teams on their schedule....scoring 27 and giving up 24.9. Here's where it gets good...when you take away those opponents with more of a stationary QB (Iowa, Michigan State, and Penn State) it jumps to 30.3 scored & 33.3 allowed for the other 6 opponents. 51-38 vs Washington, 34-27 vs Ohio State, and 17-45 vs Michigan. The Capitol One Bowl is also on turf which can really skyrocket big plays at times...esp. with special teams. Auburn/Virginia is a good example as it almost went over by halftime.

S. Carolina's turn now....I like them to win and cover due to Nebraska's D problems but Spurrier bowl record makes me like Over better. I just don't think Spurrier is a perfect fit for anyone but a pure passing team so his bowl record w/SC is not a fluke imo. SCs D is better than Neb but they've had problems with the option themselves. 274 rushing to Navy & 241 to Citadel for example. Both QBs should have single coverage all day on play-action.

S. Carolina 30-24

I'm also playing a 3 team sweetheart teaser +160 (hit 2 of 3 this bowl season).
It makes sense to parlay these for the payout value but I'm hoping Houston drops from 7.5?

SC/Neb Over 39
Houston -1
Houston/Penn State Under 62.5

Biggest mismatch of QBs in bowl history I would think? The white version of PS's crappy QB tandem got knocked out by a teammate (nice team chemistry). Rob Bolden (1 td/4 ints for the year) now gets the start vs Case Keenum. Penn State's offense is so bad they beat my Indiana Hoosiers 16-10. IU gave up 44 ppg in B10 play...one of the worst Ds I've ever seen in D1 and PS got 16! Houston will have issues with a B10 O-line & defense but they have the speed advantage imo with all those Texas kids. Smaller play on Under 56 with no side play on Houston -7.5

Houston 30
Penn State 20

GL!!

[Mr Handicapable]

S Carolina/Neb dropped to 45 Time to spank those driving the wrong way today!

[SimonSayz]

Good analysis here...what are your thoughts on the FLA / OSU total? With all the numbers I have crunched, I am getting final scores in the 31-34 point range....does your analysis line up?

[Mr Handicapable]

I haven't seen Florida play even once this year so staying away from that one. I am considering Mich. St. ML vs Georgia. MSU really should've won the B10 championship game and got beat on some cheap running into the punter call. MS QB Kirk Cousins has NFL ability and they have great receivers too and a nice front 7 on defense. Georgia is a little overrated in my book and the grass of Raymond James stadium will help MSU with the speed advantage that the SEC always has on everyone else.

[bartman]

Hmmmmm. Good analysis, I hope youre wrong though as I have S Carolina Under. Both teams dont pass much. With the exception of the Clemson game, the only game that Conner Shaw passed at all was against very weak teams like Citadel and KY. So I see two running teams and two pretty stout defenses. SC'S D seems overrated as when they played a good offense they didnt do too well. Passing teams passed on them (ARK, ECU) running teams ran on them (Navy, Citadel(!)........... My guess is SC wins 20-10

[BernardMadoff]

See one or two ways the Houston game can go, Ive never trusted their defense, and even an offense as bad as Penn State's could put up points on them I think on a good day, especially with a month to prepare. One way this could go is as you stated, Penn State is able to gain little chunks of yards and play keep away, I live in SEC country and Ive watched Alabama do this successfully for years against high powered teams, even though Penn State isnt as good offensively on the ground. I remember the 2006 Cotton Bowl against Texas Tech's high powered offense, seemed Texas Tech only had the ball for a total of 5 minutes in the first half with Bama running and it was like 7-3 at the half, ended at 13-10. Bama was able to keep them out of sync milking the clock and Tech's offense could never find a good enough rhythm. But that was because Bama had a decent enough defense.

[bartman]

I think Houston Rolls.......... I think PSU really wanted to be playing in a "big" bowl in Fl and with the Paterno thing, etc, they are ready to pack things in. Houston however will be playing in Texas and looking to prove that their loss to Southern Miss (?) was a fluke by beating a "big name" team like PSU........ Have Houston -6.5 but scared of anything over that

[Mr Handicapable]

See one or two ways the Houston game can go, Ive never trusted their defense, and even an offense as bad as Penn State's could put up points on them I think on a good day, especially with a month to prepare. One way this could go is as you stated, Penn State is able to gain little chunks of yards and play keep away, I live in SEC country and Ive watched Alabama do this successfully for years against high powered teams, even though Penn State isnt as good offensively on the ground. I remember the 2006 Cotton Bowl against Texas Tech's high powered offense, seemed Texas Tech only had the ball for a total of 5 minutes in the first half with Bama running and it was like 7-3 at the half, ended at 13-10. Bama was able to keep them out of sync milking the clock and Tech's offense could never find a good enough rhythm. But that was because Bama had a decent enough defense.

Bolden has 1 Td on the year and he's played quite a bit this year. Indiana started 7 freshman at times this year on defense....gave up 44 ppg in Big Ten play & Penn State got 16. Their offense is horrible so Houston can drop 9 in the box all day and if they get much of a lead then its over. I don't see a big blowout because Houston won't get as many big plays and should struggle w/the redzone & short yardage.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Good thread. I am taking the Florida Gators -Ohio State UNDER 45 points (-123), South Carolina (-3) and Georgia (-2.5) at 5 Dimes reduced juice.

Also like Oregon (-5).

[Mr Handicapable]

Hmmmmm. Good analysis, I hope youre wrong though as I have S Carolina Under. Both teams dont pass much. With the exception of the Clemson game, the only game that Conner Shaw passed at all was against very weak teams like Citadel and KY. So I see two running teams and two pretty stout defenses. SC'S D seems overrated as when they played a good offense they didnt do too well. Passing teams passed on them (ARK, ECU) running teams ran on them (Navy, Citadel(!)........... My guess is SC wins 20-10

If the Gamecock D is overrated then how do they hold Neb to 10? I'm banking on the 33 ppg that Neb gave up to their 6 bowl bound opponents this year w/mobile QBs and the way SC got throttled by Navy's option earlier this year. If they couldn't handle Navy's little/slow guys then Neb will have a field day. We'll see??

[HR Paperstacks]

Im bout 95% sure that the Capital One bowl is on grass not turf.

[Mr Handicapable]

Hit Houston/Under teaser/parlay but getting screwed over w/Neb & SC Over 45. Neb fumble at the 5 and both teams missing short field goals? Hail Mary helped of course but didnt quite make up for both teams inside the 10 with ZERO pts scored.