STOCKING STUFFERS COVERS ARTICLE

--Since the 1998-99 season, bowl games have averaged 53.21 points. The average over/under total is 53.88. There have been 356 overs and 376 unders with six pushes.

-- Teams that traveled the furthest are 45-20 ATS the past two bowl seasons.

--WAC teams produced the highest percentage of overs. Conference USA teams produced the highest percentage of unders.

--Teams playing their bowl game in their home state are 30-22-2 ATS the past four years.

--Big 12 teams averaged a nation-best 34.6 points per game; Sun Belt teams average 24.7 points per game, fewest in the nation.

--Air Force went 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS against bowl teams this season.

--San Diego State has outscored its opponents 207-72 in the second half this season.

--LSU went 8-0 SU and ATS against bowl teams.

--Double-digits favorites are 53-53-2 ATS in bowls since the 1998-99 season.

--Florida went 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS against bowl teams this season.

(Hat tip to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence’s Bowl Playbook for contributing to the above stats).

STRENGTH-OF-SCHEDULE MISMATCHES

(Jeff Sagarin’s Ratings)

Iowa State (2) vs. Rutgers (77)

Marshall (58) vs. Florida International (128)

Penn State (38) vs. Houston (106)

Auburn (11) vs. Virginia (74)

Texas A&M (3) vs. Northwestern (60)

STATISTICAL MISMATCHES

Louisiana-Lafayette’s goal-line offense (4th) vs. San Diego State’s goal-line defense (100th)

Rutgers goal-line defense (4th) vs. Iowa State’s red-zone defense (111th)

Texas A&M’s pass rush (43 sacks, tied for No. 1 in nation) vs. Northwestern’s pass protection (34 sacks allowed, 102nd)

Toledo’s third-down offense (16th) vs. Air Force’s third-down defense (115th)

EXPERT ADVICE

Professional handicappers David Malinsky and Scott Rickenbach had the highest winning percentage of all Covers Experts in college football this season. Here’s how they did and how they plan on winning more during bowl season.

Q: Looking back, what do you believe was the secret to your success this season betting college football?

Malinsky: As the modern game moves further from the line of scrimmage, and gets decided much by speed on the perimeter as muscle in the trenches (if not even more so), we change of fundamental focuses to reflect that.

Once upon a time our early-season focus was on how experienced the big guys up front were in terms of working with each other, now that becomes making the players in the secondary a bigger focus, especially in terms of cohesion.

And it is also understanding the depth in the defensive backfields, so that we know which teams can match up better when forced into nickel packages against spread attacks, or which teams can be exploited.

Rickenbach: I believe that a return to my roots (contrarian handicapping) really helped me. For instance, playing on a road dog when the small home favorite looked so enticing; or grabbing an over on a total where everyone seemed attracted to the under. I love situations like that.

Also, I believe just focusing more on my totals helped tremendously. I went 27-13 with totals last season and then 24-12 with totals this season. That said, I am making a conscious effort to focus more and more on totals in college football and that "total focus" will include this upcoming bowl season.

Q: Give us one bowl handicapping tip.

Malinsky: More than anything else, these bowl games come down to focus. Which teams take the games more seriously, and put more energy into their game plans and practices.

It is important to note that not all bowl games are rewards. Some teams had hoped for better things and feel let down with a lesser trip, and now that 6-6 can keep you in play, there are some bad teams that are not all that excited about having the season extend. Because there are so many games, every bowl season is going to provide us at least a few in which we have play-on teams happy to be where they are against flat play-against sides, and we do not hesitate to take advantage of those settings.

Conference Bowl ATS records since 2004

SEC: 31-24

MWC: 21-12

Pac-12: 25-24

Big Ten: 21-19

Big East: 18-14

Big 12: 25-28

WAC: 12-13-1

Independents: 7-6

ACC: 26-25

CUSA: 17-23

Sun Belt: 7-5-1

MAC: 8-17-2

Payneful Bowl Picks
SEASON 20-11-1

San Diego State (-4.5, 58.5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Pick: Over 58.5. Two good goal-line offenses that score TDs and don’t settle for field goals.