[Razz]

So, I'm concentrating a little more on football now, and I uncovered this gem. It's on a team I know very well, and I really think this wins about 65% of the time and pushes 30% of the time. That doesn't leave much room for losing.

Alabama Regular Season Wins Under 8 (-101)
Risking 4.04 units to win 4.00
Any Bama fans, I'm not trying to bag on your team, but I think the Tide is really in for a tough season. Its offensive line was pathetic last year (gave up 4.0 sacks per game in conference play, including 11 to Auburn), and though it has to be better this season (Begging the age-old question, "Is it good to return starters if they suck?"), it will still be a major weakness. The RB position is very healthy, with Darby and Johns, but without a solid line, they won't be able to take over games. The receivers aren't great, but they are good. The problem is that without Tyrone Prothro (best receiver and return man), they were never the same. From the time he was injured with about 8 minutes left against Florida, here is what the Tide did offensively:

@ Ole Miss - W 13-10
Tennessee - W, 6-3
Utah St. W, 35-3
@ Miss. St. - W, 17-0 (Neither touchdown was scored by the offense)
LSU - L, 13-16 (OT)
@ Auburn - L, 18-28 (scored 8 in closing seconds, 188 total yards)
vs. Texas Tech W, 13-10 (lone touchdown should have been called back by instant replay)

Not impressive at all. Anyway, I mention that to say this. Though the Alabama receivers are good, it's not like they're Jarrett and Smith at USC, and most any QB could succeed. Brown and Hall aren't going to make the transition from Croyle to John Parker Wilson (who has the same number of touchdown passes as DUIs on his record - 2 apiece) anything resembling flawless.
The Tide only returns four defensive starters from a team that was among the best in the nation last season. Captain and MVP Demeco Ryans won't be back, and that will affect the whole defense (I actually think he was as important to his unit as any player in the nation last season). The D-line will still be good, but the secondary is awful (besides Castille), and the linebackers suffer a significant drop losing Ryans and Roach.

OK, so I've basically described my thoughts on the team. But, here's their schedule, which seals the deal. I've arranged the games into three groups

The Wins:

Vanderbilt, ULM, Duke, FIU - nothing to say about those four.

The Should-Wins - Alabama will come the favorite in these games, but it could be difficult:

vs. Hawaii - You can't mark this a win with June Jones' aerial attack, considering how bad the Tide secondary is.
vs. Ole Miss - I've heard a crazy array of predictions as to how good/bad the Rebs will be, and the Tide could be looking ahead to playing Tennessee the next week. Easiest of the should-wins.
vs. Miss. St. - This one is probably the toughest of the three. I know Sly Croom will have his team more focused than the Tide early in this one (he went to UA, and it's Bama's last game before LSU and Auburn), and the talent level in these programs is shrinking rapidly.

The Should-Lose - Alabama will be a dog in these games:

@ Arkansas - JP Wilson's first road game is at the Nutthouse against a very good Hog team with a great back and good defense. It won't get easier the next week when the Tide plays...
@ Florida - You think Urban Meyer will have his team ready for this one? Let's rewind to last year for a minute. Alabama, holding a 31-3 lead with 8 minutes left, not only leaves the starters in, they are throwing the ball. Gatorbait.
@ Tennessee - 5-6 Tennessee would have beaten 10-2 Alabama in Tuscaloosa last season if they hadn't fumbled inside the 5 late in the 4th. Now, Tennessee is the better team, and they play them at home.
@ LSU - LSU has had the Tide's number lately, and they don't lose home night games, especially not to mediocre teams.
vs. Auburn - Now, we know anything can happen here, but until Mike Shula proves otherwise, he hasn't shown the ability to beat Auburn. Auburn is better in all phases of the game, and they have never lost in Tuscaloosa.

Here's a weird statement by me. I actually think the most likely win of the last bunch is vs. Auburn, mostly because Shula hasn't had a relevant road win in four years.
If anyone sees this team winning 9 games, let me know which ones. Thanks.

[bigboydan]

i don't think they can win 9 games much less 8 games.

i feel the tide will be in for a disappointing year myself.

[Dark Horse]

Phil Steele in the 2006 college preview:
"... the Tide finished an outstanding 10-2 and #8 in the polls. Alabama did benefit from +8 in turnovers and had 3 close wins. After returning 9 starters on defense last year, they have just 4 back this season and 6 of the 7 starters lost were 3 year starters. While the Tide must replace QB Brodie Croyle, they should have a more stable OL and with 9 starters back on offense, should top last year's 21.9 ppg (lowest since 2000). I rated LY's D #3 in the country and they allowed an SEC low 10.7 ppg. It will be another successful year for the Tide but they probably will not match last year's #8 finish in the polls."

He also has them playing the 65th toughest schedule in the nation.

[pags11]

Razz, Shula's just not a good coach...I think he really gets exposed this year...

[isetcap]

I don't agree with Mr. Steele here. Last year's team won with defense and this year's team is rebuilding on that side of the ball. Putting your hopes in a new quarterback on offense is going to yield some frustrating days for Tide fans. In an SEC where most other teams are trending upward, I see this team trending downward significantly. This team will have to work hard just to make a bowl appearance.

[Dead Money]

Great stuff Razz.

[Wassymac]

FYI: BetCris now has it at U8.5 -105