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LTA's Heisman Play - RGIII (+150) $125
I posted this in my thread earlier. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...plays-p50.html
I thought we could get some Heisman talk going. I think RGIII is a great value wager for Saturday. Let's hear your thoughts. Good luck on whoever you choose.
ACTION WAGER
Heisman Trophy Winner December 10, 2011
Robert Griffin, III (+150) $125 (Locked)
Along with a play on the total in the Army game, I will also have some action on the Heisman Trophy award this Saturday. I think this is a great spot to exploit some value in the odds. Right now, in addition to RGIII at +150, I'm getting +175 on Luck, +10000 on Keenum and Moore, +2500 on Barkley and Ball and -185 on Richardson. Keenum and Moore are eliminated because they have no chance as evidenced by their odds, leaving the only real contenders of Barkley, Ball, Luck, Richardson and RGIII.
Barkley played well coming on at the end of the year, but because of the USC sanctions he was precluded from contending for a National Championship or conference championship game and was not allowed to play in a bowl game. That hurt his chances. Much like a few of the other candidates, Barkley was "out of sight, out of mind" this weekend as UCLA and Oregon played each other for the Pac 12 crown. Even though Barkley might have the best pro prospects out of this group, he is not walking away with the award. I don't think the voters will embrace Barkley.
Montee Ball was a beast for Wisconsin this year, but was overshadowed by Russel Wilson to some extent. Was Ball's success the result of Wilson and vice versa? If you look at the other candidates, they are the main weapons for their respective offenses. However, with Wilson and Ball on the same team, the spotlight was shared. In fact, for most of the year, the Wisky PR Office was hyping Wilson more than Ball and it wasn't until the last few weeks that Ball established himself as a candidate. That is too little, too little in my mind and I don't think the voters will embrace Ball.
Andrew Luck was the darling of world until he was handled quite easily by the Oregon defense. Before that, he had a few games in which he struggled, including the lucky win over USC. I just don't see the voters giving Luck the award after fading over the last quarter of the season. While he has an outside shot as evidenced by his +175 price, Luck's lack of winning the big game will hold him back. The voters know this guy is destined for #1 NFL draft pick status, so don't expect him to get the Heisman too. Plus, Luck didn't play last weekend and missed out on that last chance to showcase his talents. I don't think the voters will embrace Luck.
Trent Richardson can very well win the award and if RGII doesn't, my pick would be Richardson. However, at -185, there is no value in this play. Richardson is a beast, but might not get enough love from the writers because he didn't do anything flashy and he doesn't have the off the field persona of an RGIII. I think Richardson will also be very successful in the pros and he has all the stats in the world to support winning the award, I just don't think he gets it because the best "story" in this year's race -- and remember the sports writers are the voters -- is RGIII. With Richardson coming from Bama and all the disdain the writers have for Saban, I think they want to root for the underdog this year and that dog is RGIII. I don't think the writers will embrace Richardson.
THE WINNER of this year's Heisman will be Robert Griffin, III.
RGIII is the full package. He's got all the stats, has done it for two years and he produced week in and week out all year rarely having an off game. In addition, he just had a huge game against Texas which was fresh in the writer's mind as the procrastinators turned in their ballot today. At +150, RGIII gives us the best bang for our buck and provides a nice return on our investment. Bottom line is that writers love a story and RGII gives them that underdog story. RGII is a very smart guy, graduated in three years at Baylor and will get his master's degree in communication this spring. If he decides to forgo the draft and stay at Baylor for a fifth year, he will do so as a law student at Baylor's law school. Writer's love this sort of story of a successful guy like RGII in comparison to all the dirty players and scandals of the Cam Newton and Reggie Bush Heisman years. I predict the writers give the award to RGIII because he earned it on the field just as much as any other player, plus he is a great story off the field that will restore some credibility to the award. RGII gives us the best value at +150 and I think the writers embrace RGII and his story by awarding him the Heisman Trophy Award on December 10, 2011. I am rolling with RGIII for 0.50x (under my football scale that is $125). Good luck.
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Originally Posted by goblue12
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