[suicidekings]

Classic end of season scenarios here for a couple of teams that bear consideration.

UConn @ Cincinnati -9, Saturday 12 EST

This game is a weird situation for Cincinnati. If they win, they force a 3 way tie and WVU takes the Big East due to their higher ranking. If they lose, Louisville wins due to their H2H win over WVU previously. So how does Cincinnati really get themselves up for this game when they don't directly benefit from it? They're sitting at 8-3 right now and the move to 9-3 could improve their placement with respect to bowl games, but I don't know if that really makes much of a difference to them as the margin would be pretty small. Having lost out on the chance at a BCS bowl and Collaros still out leaves me thinking that it's going to be hard for them to cover -9.

On the other side, UConn can become bowl eligible with a win and simultaneously stick it to Louisville, who have beaten them the last two games 26-0 and 34-20. I think the -9 is fair if we're talking about two teams on the same level, but I kind of think UConn comes into this game wanting it more, wanting to go to a bowl for the 5th straight season. I'm not sure the +9 isn't a pretty solid bet in this game.

Georgia @ LSU -13

A game where LSU really doesn't have anything to gain with a win of 21 points or 10 points. I feel like they won't do anything risky, but the win is still important to go into their break with momentum. The last thing they want is to have a loss in the back of their mind for a month. Georgia is the definition of a team with nothing to lose here. They're expected to lose and even getting beaten down will largely be taken as unsurprising. Statswise, Georgia is pretty comparable to LSU both on offense and defense. Where the majority of LSU's opponents have had some glaring weakness that LSU has been able to exploit (minus Alabama), Georgia is very balanced. I think if you can get +14/+14.5 or tease them up above 2 TDs, Georgia could be a great bet here.

Boise -48.5 & TCU -38.5

Where's the motivation here? TCU has the Mountain West wrapped up with the H2H win over Boise. The Frogs can improve their bowl situation to a certain extent, but not by much. Boise doesn't really have the ability to improve their placement. Both opponents are ranked so low that even big wins won't have an impact. I'm not eager to put money on New Mexico or UNLV, but i kind of doubt both of these teams cover these monster spreads.

Just my thoughts. Feedback welcome.

[sandman0713]

the big east ref's are crooked as they come, and the conference is pissed at wv. would they try to make certain there is no 3-way tie, so louisville goes to the bcs? that way if wv leaves they don't share in the bcs money? does the big east even split bcs money? isn't louisville staying in the big east?...so maybe they make certain to get them in? lot of question marks, as i really know very little about the big east. some here do tho, and the uconn ml seems it may hold some value.

[stefan084]

ty for the write ups

[sandman0713]

screw it...i'll just drop $20 on uconn at +290 and see what happens. i like holgorsen and wv...so not upset either way then.

[sandman0713]

went to a couple of big east school forums, and the cry is out there to screw wv any way possible...lol. fans wanting them gone as soon as the final whistle blows tomm, so there is no way they can represent the big east in a bcs game or share in the money. a bearcat fan said he would rather them lose and screw wv than win and share the title...lol. begging for people to bury wv in the rankings in case of a 3-way tie. sounds like the uconn ml really may be worth a shot at +290 or better. big east seems to have no problem with blatant cheating, based on the games i have watched this season. curious to see this game.

[chineselover]

Thank you for the write up!

I like it, already bet on Uconn...

Hope you can write more on all the other games this week...

[HoulihansTX]

Cincy last home game = Senior Day

LSU = nothing to gain, but no one plays to lose. I could see a Georgia cover though.

Last two are monster spreads. Its totally up to the favs if they want to keep pouring it on late, or unload the bench

[suicidekings]

Thank you for the write up!

I like it, already bet on Uconn...

Hope you can write more on all the other games this week...

Most of the games this week aren't worth your time. Crappy WAC and Sun Belt games... My biggest play of the week is a teaser with VTech pk & Wisconsin -2.5. I also like Houston -13 and I'm thinking about an OU & Under tease.

[robinhood]

add Kansas State -10 to your list. They want a piece of the big 12 championship and it's possible they get it with an OU win over OSU.

[suicidekings]

add Kansas State -10 to your list. They want a piece of the big 12 championship and it's possible they get it with an OU win over OSU.

Except OU and OSU both beat KState SU, so the best KState could finish is 2nd.

[robinhood]

Except OU and OSU both beat KState SU, so the best KState could finish is 2nd.

This is a quote from the ESPN preview.

"The 16th-ranked Wildcats can clinch a share of their first Big 12 title since 2003 on Saturday when they face Iowa State at Bill Snyder Family Stadium."

Are they wrong here?

[suicidekings]

This is a quote from the ESPN preview.

"The 16th-ranked Wildcats can clinch a share of their first Big 12 title since 2003 on Saturday when they face Iowa State at Bill Snyder Family Stadium."

Are they wrong here?

OSU is 7-1 right now, and OU is 6-2, KState is 6-2 (lost to both OU & OSU)

If OU & KState both win: All three teams will be 7-2, but OU would own the tiebreak game over both KState and OSU. In terms of W-L record there would be a 3 way tie, but KState would be third among them due to H2H outcomes. Unless there's a rule I don't know about?

[CBASS]

Cincy last home game = Senior Day

LSU = nothing to gain, but no one plays to lose. I could see a Georgia cover though.

Last two are monster spreads. Its totally up to the favs if they want to keep pouring it on late, or unload the bench

Maybe there is ....

a) An SEC Championship & the rings that come with it (which is very meaningful in the south, especially since they aren't guaranteed to win the BCS Natl. Chmpshp)

b) First ever perfect season in school history (who wouldn't want to be a part of that?)

c) Not leaving their fate in someone else's hands (it is not a guarantee that they get in if they were to lose)

d) A huge freaking bonus for Les Miles if his team wins

[No coincidences]

OSU is 7-1 right now, and OU is 6-2, KState is 6-2 (lost to both OU & OSU)

If OU & KState both win: All three teams will be 7-2, but OU would own the tiebreak game over both KState and OSU. In terms of W-L record there would be a 3 way tie, but KState would be third among them due to H2H outcomes. Unless there's a rule I don't know about?

I think it just means they can clinch a share.

I really, really like Iowa State to cover in this spot at anything over 10.

[sandman0713]

i know you check your own stuff sk...but don't go off of my bedlam weather forecast. the snow is coming sunday now. it is only drizzle, 25-30 mph winds, and low 40's now. still not great...but not the dire conditions the weatherman was talking about a few days ago.

[suicidekings]

Maybe there is ....

a) An SEC Championship & the rings that come with it (which is very meaningful in the south, especially since they aren't guaranteed to win the BCS Natl. Chmpshp)

b) First ever perfect season in school history (who wouldn't want to be a part of that?)

c) Not leaving their fate in someone else's hands (it is not a guarantee that they get in if they were to lose)

d) A huge freaking bonus for Les Miles if his team wins

Agreed with all of this, but winning and covering -13 are miles apart against a solid Georgia team. I don't know if I'll bet Georgia, but I don't want to be laying a DD spread in what could be a close game. I do think LSU wins though. The perfect season seems written on the wall.

[sandman0713]

the winner bedlam will get the bcs bid 100%...tho if ou wins it would be a split championship. nobody cares about the conference championship since they took away the championship game...just the bcs bid.

[suicidekings]

i know you check your own stuff sk...but don't go off of my bedlam weather forecast. the snow is coming sunday now. it is only drizzle, 25-30 mph winds, and low 40's now. still not great...but not the dire conditions the weatherman was talking about a few days ago.

Weather.com now says 70% chance of rain for most of the day, drying up before kickoff, but that should still mean questionable footing on soggy turf, along with 10-15mph winds. Not ideal, but not terrible.

The reason I was leaning OU & Under is because they've had sufficient time to adapt to Broyles going down and heavy coverage on Kenny Stills is going to lead to more short passing from Landry Jones and running the ball for OU, along with an increased defensive intensity that goes with the knowledge that if you let Weeden have time to work in the pocket, you're in serious trouble. As such, Blackmon is going to be smothered and have to really work to get his touches and Weeden (like Jones) is smart enough to take what the offense gives him. Going against either QB, I would give up the short passes over the bombs any day. U78 and +10.5 seem like nice numbers here.

For Oklahoma to win, it's also critical to win the TO battle. OSU excels in forcing fumbles and getting interceptions, as you well know. I can see a couple of drives on each side being disrupted after chewing up some clock.

[CBASS]

Agreed with all of this, but winning and covering -13 are miles apart against a solid Georgia team. I don't know if I'll bet Georgia, but I don't want to be laying a DD spread in what could be a close game. I do think LSU wins though. The perfect season seems written on the wall.

For sure. I just played the Over 46. There will be quick scores off turnovers and several big plays IMO.

[CBASS]

I also played the OU/OSU Under 74. I made this play initially because the weather looked like it was going to be drastic. I'm not liking what I'm seeing weather wise now though. Doesn't seem like it is going to be too bad until Sunday. I'm happy that it'll be windy though. What do you think?

[suicidekings]

I really, really like Iowa State to cover in this spot at anything over 10.

The problem I have with Iowa State is that it involves them trying to run the zone-read offense against Bill Snyder. That seems like something that's not going to go particularly well. Alternately, ISU has a pretty porous run defense and Collin Klein is going to take what he wants on the ground. The total is also quite low, IMO. A little confusing to me.

[suicidekings]

I also played the OU/OSU Under 74. I made this play initially because the weather looked like it was going to be drastic. I'm not liking what I'm seeing weather wise now though. Doesn't seem like it is going to be too bad until Sunday. I'm happy that it'll be windy though. What do you think?

OSU is probably coming into this game very aware that this is the best chance they've had to beat the Sooners in a long time, and with two weeks to prepare, they're going to be dialed in on specific things they need to do to beat OU. IMO, the biggest thing OSU need to do is take a few steps back and play to contain big gains. Minimizing the yards after completion, meeting the OU RBs at the point of attack, and smother Kenny Stills with double coverage. Force OU to grind out the yardage with tough 3rd down conversions. Coach Gundy basically alluded to increased defensive intensity being the primary focus of their bye week, and if they can make OU grind it out instead of trying to trade heavy blows, they have a much better chance of winning.

I think OSU sets the tone with their defense tomorrow, as odd as that sounds, and Bob Stoops will have to play a similar style to control Weeden. I think for OU this is the chance to salvage a bit from a ruined season, but for OSU this is a chance to do something that hasn't been possible for a decade... Beat the Sooners and play for that very small chance of stealing the #2 spot from Alabama and a spot in the NC game. A firefight won't do the job though. They need to shut OU down. So I like the U74, but I will likely sit and watch the game and hope to be opportunistic on live betting.

[CBASS]

OSU is probably coming into this game very aware that this is the best chance they've had to beat the Sooners in a long time, and with two weeks to prepare, they're going to be dialed in on specific things they need to do to beat OU. IMO, the biggest thing OSU need to do is take a few steps back and play to contain big gains. Minimizing the yards after completion, meeting the OU RBs at the point of attack, and smother Kenny Stills with double coverage. Force OU to grind out the yardage with tough 3rd down conversions. Coach Gundy basically alluded to increased defensive intensity being the primary focus of their bye week, and if they can make OU grind it out instead of trying to trade heavy blows, they have a much better chance of winning.

I think OSU sets the tone with their defense tomorrow, as odd as that sounds, and Bob Stoops will have to play a similar style to control Weeden. I think for OU this is the chance to salvage a bit from a ruined season, but for OSU this is a chance to do something that hasn't been possible for a decade... Beat the Sooners and play for that very small chance of stealing the #2 spot from Alabama and a spot in the NC game. A firefight won't do the job though. They need to shut OU down. So I like the U74, but I will likely sit and watch the game and hope to be opportunistic on live betting.

The descriptive response was much appreciated and makes perfect sense. Thanks SK

[thebestthereis]

LSU will play this game to bomb Georgia just like any other team. If they lose this game and get into the championship with one loss they will never hear the end of it. They also want the SEC crown just as bad as Georgia. If you think LSU doesn't cover due to motivational factors you are an idiot. They might not cover, but it has nothing to do with not wanting this game as bad as any other.

[milkncereal]

For what it's worth, a player (non starter) on UC's private facebook profile page said, "Ready to win a Big East championship this morning!! Game against UCONN at noon"

He was pretty dumb when i hung out with him, but maybe uc is still delusional and think they can jump WV in the bcs standings. lol

[suicidekings]

For what it's worth, a player (non starter) on UC's private facebook profile page said, "Ready to win a Big East championship this morning!! Game against UCONN at noon"

He was pretty dumb when i hung out with him, but maybe uc is still delusional and think they can jump WV in the bcs standings. lol

Lebron James also tweeted "It's now or never!" to his fans before Game 5 of the NBA Finals, and we all know how that ended.

[suicidekings]

LSU will play this game to bomb Georgia just like any other team. If they lose this game and get into the championship with one loss they will never hear the end of it. They also want the SEC crown just as bad as Georgia. If you think LSU doesn't cover due to motivational factors you are an idiot. They might not cover, but it has nothing to do with not wanting this game as bad as any other.

Not consciously saying to themselves that the game doesn't matter. However not starting the game with a sense of urgency while Georgia presses from the first kickoff, going down 7-0 or 10-0 only to see the game become very defensive and then working their way back to even and then leading by 7-14, with Georgia tacking on a FG or two in their final drives, trying to chip away at the lead only to fall short and LSU wins by 7-10...

That seems like a very likely scenario to me. I'm really more the type that will wait and see what happens, hoping for an early move from Georgia and then take a discounted LSU ML or spread in live betting. LSU wins though. No doubt in my mind.

[GoBlue77]

Most of the games this week aren't worth your time. Crappy WAC and Sun Belt games... My biggest play of the week is a teaser with VTech pk & Wisconsin -2.5. I also like Houston -13 and I'm thinking about an OU & Under tease.

same here!

[Rambo]

The total is also quite low, IMO. A little confusing to me.

Sloppy cold rain.

[suicidekings]

Boise -48.5 & TCU -38.5

Where's the motivation here? TCU has the Mountain West wrapped up with the H2H win over Boise. The Frogs can improve their bowl situation to a certain extent, but not by much. Boise doesn't really have the ability to improve their placement. Both opponents are ranked so low that even big wins won't have an impact. I'm not eager to put money on New Mexico or UNLV, but i kind of doubt both of these teams cover these monster spreads.

TCU now stands a solid chance of taking Houston's vacated BCS berth and are off to decent 14-3 start over UNLV. I still think the -38.5 was too much, but TCU should still get the solid win and possibly sneak into the bowl.