1. 01-06-12 05:08 PM #176
    jameski999
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    That's what I thought at first but wasn't sure. John wanted the link so I just posted it for him
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  2. 01-06-12 06:56 PM #177
    John Ryan
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    Hey folks.. Take the UNDER for a 5* play.
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  3. 01-06-12 06:57 PM #178
    John Ryan
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    Just heard that K-State has additional issues/injuries/dings/sprains on the defensive front, which means that Arkansas will run the ball far more than their season average. Good Luck!

    Will be back at Half-time for another play.
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  4. 01-06-12 06:59 PM #179
    John Ryan
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    BoDog had it listed still at 67 -105... most though are 65 1/2 and 65.. We'll use 65 1/2 as the line for this play to fair to all. BUT 67 is an awesome number in my opinion.
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  5. 01-06-12 08:44 PM #180
    jameski999
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    Sick call on Ark coming out running the ball don't think anybody saw that coming
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  6. 01-07-12 08:31 AM #181
    John Ryan
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    Quote Originally Posted by jameski999 View Post
    Sick call on Ark coming out running the ball don't think anybody saw that coming
    Thank you.. not all that sick.. just information is the most powerful commodity in this world.
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  7. 01-07-12 08:40 AM #182
    jameski999
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    U like anything today in this Pitt game John?
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  8. 01-07-12 11:29 AM #183
    John Ryan
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    Nothing today at ll in the SMU/Pitt game.. Perhaps a slight lean on SMU, but nothing serious. Thanks again for all your support this season. The big one comes up Monday and you already have the link for the 20* Titan play on Alabama and 5* 'over' play.

    Let's start discussing the BCS Championship game.
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  9. 01-07-12 12:17 PM #184
    Looking4Winners
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Ryan View Post
    Nothing today at ll in the SMU/Pitt game.. Perhaps a slight lean on SMU, but nothing serious. Thanks again for all your support this season. The big one comes up Monday and you already have the link for the 20* Titan play on Alabama and 5* 'over' play.

    Let's start discussing the BCS Championship game.
    fyi...

    John's write-ups: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/college-foot...total-a-22740/

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/college-foot...s-lsu-a-22784/
    Last edited by Looking4Winners; 01-07-12 at 12:31 PM.
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  10. 01-09-12 09:26 AM #185
    rory borealis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jasper11 View Post
    I came late to this whole thing. The first one I took was Cal-Texas under which was a winner. Just want to thank John for doing this. It is hardly an exact science,and no one is forced to follow John,so I don't get the sharp criticism. If you think you can do better create a thread. Thanks again John. I can see you have lots of people following you so don't disappear.

    I totally agree.

    The late Mort Olshan of The Gold Sheet stated back in the late 1980s that perhaps 50% of all NFL and NCAA FB games were decided by factors outside the realm of "handicapping skill".

    late interception
    muffed punt

    So out of 100 games, Olshan pointed out that the handicapper would be forced to start off at 25 wins - 25 losses

    So to hit 57% overall, the handicapping expertise must be able to hit 67% on the remaining 50 games



    We just witnessed a huge turnaround in one of the bowl games where a fumble at the two-yard line resulted in the defense returning it 98 yards for a touchdown... prior to that we had a 68-yard run for a touchdown.

    Game-time events superimposed themselves on any handicapping expertise that may have existed prior to the game's start.

    The question for following/tailing any handicapper is:
    1) Are they better than 52.4% proficient overall at picking winners?
    2) If "yes"... then how do sound money management principles come into play which affect bet/wager size as a percentage of bankroll.

    Be safe... I'd figure that John may be 53.5 % proficient so I'm going to wager 53.5 - (46.5/.91) = 2.4% of my bankroll on his plays (divide your bankroll into 42 equal "wagering" portions)

    Now John Ryan's proficiency may currently be better than 53.5%...

    ...he might be UNLUCKY and be actually better than what his current % proficiency is...

    ..or he may be LUCKY and we can expect a "reversion to the mean".

    So some of those who are following his picks may wish to chime on on how proficient they've observed him to be...

    I note that John sometimes posts his database's record ATS so maybe some who have followed him could give us an idea as to what that translates to as his advantage.

    ...but what should be first & foremost in all of our minds, is that he is committing to the "energy expense" and use of his available free time to help the less capable handicappers here enjoy some measure of handicapping success....

    Thank you, John

    ...and thanks to any informed posters who might want to suggest whether I should slightly raise or lower my bet size based upon your observations and the formula above
    Points Awarded:

    soonerstud7804 gave rory borealis 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    chief42 gave rory borealis 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  11. 01-09-12 11:32 AM #186
    stone cold locks
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    waiting on the *20 graded play for tonights game!!
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: tntkoedel
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  12. 01-09-12 12:04 PM #187
    jbizzle
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    Thank you John for all your hard work and time spent on your picks. Your perspective and insight with handicapping is educational and enjoyable to have! What percentage of a bankroll would you recommend using for your 5* unit plays?
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  13. 01-09-12 12:08 PM #188
    jjaycuny
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    Quote Originally Posted by stone cold locks View Post
    waiting on the *20 graded play for tonights game!!
    Didn't he already release it? Alabama ATS?
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  14. 01-09-12 12:21 PM #189
    RAK
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjaycuny View Post
    Didn't he already release it? Alabama ATS?
    Originally Posted by John Ryan
    Nothing today at ll in the SMU/Pitt game.. Perhaps a slight lean on SMU, but nothing serious. Thanks again for all your support this season. The big one comes up Monday and you already have the link for the 20* Titan play on Alabama and 5* 'over' play.

    Let's start discussing the BCS Championship game.

    Yeah, in the post above he says "20* Titan play on Alabama and 5* 'over' play"
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  15. 01-09-12 01:15 PM #190
    soonerstud7804
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    i don't see that post
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  16. 01-09-12 03:55 PM #191
    fecgp40
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    I don't think he posted it here. I think it's on the front page of the SBR picks section.
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  17. 01-09-12 04:07 PM #192
    fecgp40
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    John's article on the total states it's a 10* play, but here and in his article picking Alabama ATS he says it's a 5* play. Can you clarify John? Thanks.
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  18. 01-09-12 05:14 PM #193
    mikea33
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    John let us know your pick. I'm interested. I dont understand how this is a 20* play in an absolute crapshoot of a game, but hey....i'd love to hear your insight.
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  19. 01-09-12 05:16 PM #194
    jjaycuny
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    Quote Originally Posted by fecgp40 View Post
    John's article on the total states it's a 10* play, but here and in his article picking Alabama ATS he says it's a 5* play. Can you clarify John? Thanks.
    No he has it listed as a 20*

    "John Ryan has a 20 * graded play on Alabama as they take on LSU in the BCS Championship game. He has also recorded a podcast for the game and thank you message to all those that contributed to his thread and analysis."

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/college-foot...abama-a-22813/
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  20. 01-09-12 05:19 PM #195
    mikea33
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    Sorry but I understand how someone can be on Alabama, I was early on.......but a 20* play on this game beats me.
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  21. 01-09-12 05:24 PM #196
    balls2wall
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    Quote Originally Posted by soonerstud7804 View Post
    i don't see that post


    It's post #183 a few up on this page
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  22. 01-09-12 05:26 PM #197
    Sacdaddy05
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    how do u put a 20* play out for 2 teams so equal?
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  23. 01-09-12 05:31 PM #198
    06Ech0
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    Fade Time
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  24. 01-09-12 05:43 PM #199
    fecgp40
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjaycuny View Post
    No he has it listed as a 20* "John Ryan has a 20 * graded play on Alabama as they take on LSU in the BCS Championship game. He has also recorded a podcast for the game and thank you message to all those that contributed to his thread and analysis." http://www.sportsbookreview.com/college-foot...abama-a-22813/
    Sorry, I guess I wasn't very clear the way I wrote my statement. John's pick ATS is definitely a 20* play. I understand that. Where I'm confused is his pick on the total. In the article itself he writes his pick is a 10* play, but in one post on this thread and in the article he wrote for the ATS pick, he states it is a 5* play. Just wondering which one is correct.
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  25. 01-09-12 05:56 PM #200
    mikea33
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    Quote Originally Posted by 06Ech0 View Post
    Fade Time
    Quote Originally Posted by Sacdaddy05 View Post
    how do u put a 20* play out for 2 teams so equal?
    Agree here guys. Sorry John.
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  26. 01-09-12 06:41 PM #201
    fecgp40
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikea33 View Post
    Agree here guys. Sorry John.
    I guess we'll see. I think a lot of high rollers are on Bama... I'll side with them.
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  27. 01-09-12 06:53 PM #202
    John Ryan
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    yes, just to clarify since the articles have been out for about a week. 20* Alabama... and 5* 'Over' Alabama line has steadily risen, but BoDog still has it it pick -120.. I will lay the wood. The 'over' is getting support as well late.. I was able to 40 personally, but is currentty at 41 1/2 -110.
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  28. 01-09-12 07:06 PM #203
    mikea33
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    John I know your all over Bama. but i dont see this teaser losing.

    LSU +9.5
    Baltimore ravens -1
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  29. 01-09-12 09:09 PM #204
    justwinthisone
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    John do u like over 2nd half after watching 1st half? It's a bargain if u liked 40 for game
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  30. 01-09-12 10:38 PM #205
    rnoutlaw21
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    Great pick John, thanks!
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  31. 01-09-12 11:54 PM #206
    06Ech0
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    we're not worthy. I suck, I suck.
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  32. 01-10-12 01:11 PM #207
    ireland1946
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikea33 View Post
    John I know your all over Bama. but i dont see this teaser losing.

    LSU +9.5
    Baltimore ravens -1

    What a loser you are, why do you read and post in
    this Thread when you second guess Johns Picks
    your bet on the Teaser was also a pile of Shit
    Goos Luck with your next Picks, you might consider
    Picking your Nose probatly much easer and better
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