1. #1
    hydrosmak
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    Weekday NCAAF O/U

    Something popped out at me with NCAAF game totals on weekday games. Here are some stats I came up with for Oct. and Nov. games. I used SBR's live odds and went back through each weekday game.

    Weekday game O/U (Double Digit spread)

    If you bet over (closing #) = 12-3
    3 game hit by 1pt
    1 missed by 1/2 pt

    Weekday game O/U (14pt spread or greater)
    If you bet over (closing #) = 7-3

  2. #2
    petermans23
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    Thanks for great info hydrosmak!!

    Can I ask you what is your thoughts regarding the statistics?

    Why do you think the over has been so much more the winning pic?

    Is it just a coincidant or is there a pattern here?

  3. #3
    hydrosmak
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    Quote Originally Posted by petermans23 View Post
    Thanks for great info hydrosmak!!

    Can I ask you what is your thoughts regarding the statistics?

    Why do you think the over has been so much more the winning pic?

    Is it just a coincidant or is there a pattern here?
    Could have a lot more to do with the conferences that play during the week. Two of the three that didn't make the over I believe were ACC games.

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    petermans23
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    Sorry, I am not so familiar with the different kind of games. What is the difference between conferences games and ACC games? And is there a difference in the statistics between these ACC and conference games?
    So if the over games were mostly conference games does that mean that the statistic is even higher for the over in conference games?
    Thanks for your clearification!!

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    petermans23
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    The game tonight in the NCAA football between No Illinois-Ball State, is that a conference game?

    What do you think the chances are that it will go over 71-72 in this game?

  6. #6
    MTek
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    MAC mid-week games have generally gone over this year, if your a degenerate just looking for action the weekday MAC games are a good proposition

  7. #7
    hydrosmak
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    Quote Originally Posted by petermans23 View Post
    Sorry, I am not so familiar with the different kind of games. What is the difference between conferences games and ACC games? And is there a difference in the statistics between these ACC and conference games?
    So if the over games were mostly conference games does that mean that the statistic is even higher for the over in conference games?
    Thanks for your clearification!!
    Well I will start with the fact that if you don't know the difference between conferences and you don't recognize the ACC as being a conference then I am not sure what you are doing here betting on NCAA.

    But to answer your question. The ACC conference is one of the better in College football. In general games during the week tend to be from weaker conferences like the MAC. So really the odds are even better when you only take MAC/smaller conference games into account.

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    petermans23
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    Look, I am learning. I donīt see anything wrong with that.

    I usually check out what all the people here on the collage football threads have to say and based on that and some statistics for the games I find on bet365 homepage I make up my mind and sometimes follow and sometimes fade the pros here on the collage football thread.

    Now I know a little more thanks to hydrosmak which will help me even more in my selections. Thanks.

  9. #9
    hydrosmak
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    Quote Originally Posted by petermans23 View Post
    Look, I am learning. I donīt see anything wrong with that.

    I usually check out what all the people here on the collage football threads have to say and based on that and some statistics for the games I find on bet365 homepage I make up my mind and sometimes follow and sometimes fade the pros here on the collage football thread.

    Now I know a little more thanks to hydrosmak which will help me even more in my selections. Thanks.

  10. #10
    petermans23
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    Hi again hydrosmak!

    Iīve now done some research on the game Ball State/Northern Illionois tonight. And regarding the under/over in the game.

    Just a humble comment to your great write up in the beginning of this great thread!

    Is it possible that here have been some ridiculously high-scoring games in the MAC (as you earlier tought me the difference between the conferences) of late? And does that make it possible that odds makers have set the numbers too high in this game? We know that the betting public has been pounding the overs, including this one.

    This line opened at 70.5 and has been bet up to 72.5 in most places. Northern Illinois was part of one of those really high-scoring games two weeks ago when they won at Toledo 63-60. But after that game they came back down to earth last week, winning 45-14 at Bowling Green in a game that went under the number.

    And also is it possible that unlike Toledo, Ball State is not the same elite offensive team? Ball State are scoring 23.8 points/game while averaging 376.2 total yards/game. In 10 games this season, Ball State and their opponents have combined to score more than 72 points just once. That's a 9-1 (90%) system pertaining to tonight's total set.

    With a lot on stake tonight, could it be that their defense is going to be a priority?

    Northern Illinois sits in a first-place tie with Toledo atop the MAC West division, while Ball State trails both teams by only one game.

    The under is 15-7-1 in Ball States last 23 road games. The under is 5-1 in Ball States last 6 Tuesday games. The under is 19-6-1 in Northern Illinois last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

    Would be very interesting to hear your opinion to this game?

  11. #11
    hydrosmak
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    You have looked into this way harder than I have. All I intended for this thread was posting up a trend really. If it took the books up until this week to catch up and set a high over then well I guess I will just lose my 1 unit bet tonight. It does look like getting in early on these over's is the key with how high they get pushed up.

    GL petermans!

  12. #12
    petermans23
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    Thanks hydrosmak!

    Good luck to you too!

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