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Arkansas -13
I'm a homer and love the hogs. I went big on them last week against Tennessee and won. I really like them again this week against Mississippi State, who turned out to be the most overrated SEC school this year. However, Mississippi State is better than Tennessee.
What do you all think about this one? I'm trying to put my bias aside and really determine if Arkansas is another big play this week.
laid it down on arky already. miss st should put up a better fight than tennessee. but theyre offense cannot keep up
arky is terrible on the road compared to being at home
I originally liked Arkansas in this game as well. But after realizing that they've got LSU 6 days after this game I'm on Mississippi St. This is a perfect spot for the trap/look-ahead game. I think this game is settled by 7 points or less and Arkansas should be weary of the upset.
It is a home game.Originally Posted by jakeloftin2186
"the look ahead/trap" angle is sports betting to me is mainly BS. There is very little proof that teams who face superior competition in the next week of a ballgame tend to play down to their level of competition
If you want to look for an angle to take MSU - I would tell you it's Arkansas' mediocre run defense but Arkansas gave up a ton of rush yards against Auburn and still won by 24
there's very little "proof" of any angle that works in sports betting. If there were then the books would all go out of business. I don't use the look ahead angle as an automatic, but I do like it here in this particular situation.
I Just don't see too many examples where it's even remotely legitimate as a betting angle - I can show you tons of examples of the matchup angle (where 1 team's weakness is another team's strength) making a huge difference but not the "trap" angle
Look at the 2 biggest games of the year so far - Oregon - Stanford and Alabama - LSU
Stanford before Oregon game - won by 25 @ Oregon St
Alabama before LSU game - won by 31 vs Bama
Oregon before Stanford game - won by 17 @ Washington
LSU Before Alabama game - won by 35 vs Auburn
there's your 4 teams playing the game before the 2 most hyped games so far of the college football season and all 4 teams went 4-0 ATS
With the BCS system nowadays, teams like Arkansas realize that any loss to any team will kill their BCS bowl hopes so everybody prepares hard every week. I just don't see any reason why a team like Arkansas would take a conference home game opponent "easily"
Arkansas is a really good team. They will roll this weekend and probably beat LSU.
Hognation. Rooting for them to beat Miss St. and LSU
what do u think the spread will be for Arkansas @LSU?
I like Arkansas here. I am just concerned about their run defense. They were very poor tacklers against Ole Miss and Vandy. Miss State defense played well vs Alabama but Arkansas probably has a better passing attack than Bama.
I think LSU will be a little over a TD favorite,7.5-8 in my opinion. Saw that LSU D in person against Bama and they will give Arkansas's O fits. If LSU gets the running game going it could get ugly.
Last edited by Duke Fan; 11-15-11 at 09:31 PM. Reason: spelling
Arkansas was + 11 @ Bama and lost by 24
I think it will be LSU favored by 10-11 points in this game as well
[er QUOTE=Big Bear;12367941]what do u think the spread will be for Arkansas @LSU?
I like Arkansas here. I am just concerned about their run defense. They were very poor tacklers against Ole Miss and Vandy. Miss State defense played well vs Alabama but Arkansas probably has a better passing attack than Bama.[/QUOTE]
And yes, no doubt Arkansas has a better passing attack and that is from a Bama fan.
Before anyone asks Duke Fan why I say Bama Fan. Long story short, grew up in Carolinas and have been Duke fan all my life, but graduated from Bama after family transfer.
I think LSU will be a little over a TD favorite,7.5-8 in my opinion. Saw that LSU D in person against Byama and they will give Arkansas's O fits. If LSU gets the running game going it could get ugly.
on paper LSU matches up well against Arkansas but since it is a Rivalry game they tend to be pretty close games
this game is in little rock. homer here but i loaded up on arkansas last week and will again this week. i don't like betting on them but this is a low line that arkansas should cover easily. i think about 48-24.
I got on Arkansas early (being a huge Hogs fan I follow them very close...) but the more I think about it, the more I regret betting them here. Over the past decade State has shown up a bit flat and uninspired to play the Hogs...especially in away games. That wasn't the case last season though: State used it's running game and a weak Hogs run defense to control the clock and the game. They were poised to take a two-score lead in the third quarter before an untimely fumble by their quarterback and a quick ~70 yard touchdown pass turned the entire game around. Still a tight game from that point on and the Hogs needed overtime and another lucky bounce to win it in the end.
I think State will employ a similar strategy...taking advantage of a suspect Hogs rush defense to keep the game close. Not sure motivation will be a huge factor here: the Hogs are playing for a 'back-door' national title opportunity while the Bulldogs are coming off a loss to a rival and fighting for bowl eligibility... still I see a dangerous and capable 5-loss Mississippi State team coming in to Little Rock and making this a good game.... I hope the Hogs cover...but a spread of 7-10 points may be more realistic....
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The game is in Baton Rouge.
MISS QB is listed as Questionable (Concussion) = Limited practice
MISS DB Out for the season
Ark's looking good this weekend
this thread is about Miss State @ Arkansas
Dude you're Bama and LSU examples arent even comparable. Both of those teams had bye weeks before they played eachother. Arkansas goes to play LSU SIX DAYS after this game, on a Friday. Completely different scenarios. If you don't think they are looking ahead, then we disagree.....but your examples are useless
Very good possibility for them to look ahead, but at the same time 16 Seniors are from Little Rock.
This game is going to be "Senior Night 2.0"
Been on the Hogs big last 2 weeks don't see a reason to stop now.
TN is complete and utter ineptitude. big difference in these opponents
I just don't see a let down happening here. If there is going to be a let down, it will be next week against LSU. And by let down, I mean them losing by 20+ at LSU.
I'm thinking the game is a little slow at the beginning but turns out to be a 37-20 game
Gamblin I hope you're right. But...State has a decent defense and their secondary is comparable to Vandy. The Hogs only scored 24 offensive points in that one. On paper....this certainly looks more like a dog fight than a cake walk... Good thing the Hogs are at home...
This is senior night 2.0. Top Defensive senior Jake Bequette and Playmaker Joe Adams are from Little Rock. Look for them to have huge games. And with Oklahoma State losing, Arkansas becomes a dark horse and could slip through the back door to the SEC championship as long as they take care of business. Petrino has this team focused and they will jump on them from the beginning. This group of seniors are 7-0 at War Memorial Stadium and look for them to make it 8-0 in a big way. Hogs win by 24
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