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11-12-11 05:32 PM #36
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11-12-11 05:32 PM #37
Going all-in to win it all back on a Stanford -3/UNDER 72 parlay. If I lose, I'm packing up my shit and leaving bodog for 5dimes, which has been my plan if i get wiped out or get my account high enough to withdraw
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11-12-11 05:34 PM #38
auburn ****** me over real good
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11-12-11 05:35 PM #39
I'm doing pretty amazing today (you can check my thread earlier). Ever since I've found a new way to handicap these games, I am winning tons of money. If anyone wants some advice, the play tonight is Stanford!
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11-12-11 05:36 PM #40
What is the new way to handicap these games?
Originally Posted by realitybias
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11-12-11 06:01 PM #41
Find a good sheet out there (I use foxsheets, but there are some other good ones).
Here is my method. Ever since I've switched to this method 2 weeks ago, I havent had to join one of these threads. I won all of my week games this week (and I posted them here).
Pre-step: DO NOT LOOK AT THE SPREAD!
1st step... go to espn, ignore the actual previous scores. Click on each player statistics page for each team. See if one of them is passing the ball really well, how many turnovers, and how many rushing yards and YPC each team has. Assign an edge to passing, and an edge to rushing the ball.
2nd step... go to the sheet you use. Find out what Team A's average points per game is, and compare that to the Team B's points allowed per game. You can then make a short prediction for what you think team A will score. For instance, I see that team A averages 28 points a game. Their opponents on average give up 14 points a game. I know then that team A usually scores 14 more points than what their opponent gives up.
3rd step... do this with Team B. For instance, I know that Team B usually scores 25 points a game. I also see that their opponents give up on average 28 points a game. I now know that team B will probably get 3 points a game more than what their opponent allows .
4th step... I look at Team A's defensive average. In team A's case, that is they allow 24 points a game. I compare that to team A's opponents who give up an average of 30 points per game. I know that team A will usually give up 6 fewer points than what their opponent scores.
5th step... I look at Team B's defensive average. In team B's case, that is they allow an average of 28 points a game. I compare that to team B's opponents who give up an average of 27 points a game. I know that team B will usually allow 1 less point than what their opponent scores.
WARNING! STILL DONT LOOK AT THE LINE!
Here are the numbers so far:
Team A:
Team A Offense scores +14 points than what their opponent allows.
Team B allows -1 less point than what their opponent scores.
The average of points that team A scores compared to the average of points team B allows is team A +7.5 against team B's defense.
Team B allows 27 points per game.
Team A final score for the purpose of handicapping therefore is 27+7.5= 34.5 points
Same with team b...
Team B Offense scores -3 what their opponent allows.
Team A Defense allows -1 point to what their opponent scores.
The average of these two values is -2 points.
Team A allows 24 points a game.
Team B will score 22 points for purposes of handicapping.
Come up with a line in your head using these numbers... in this case, it is Team A: 34.5 to team B: 22 points. I have Team B at +12.5
I look at the line and see that... WOAH... vegas has team B only getting 6.5 points. I now know that going with team A is the best decision based off of my oddsmaking.
I don't end it here though. My sheets show an average passing defense, vs an opponents average passing offense... and an average rushing defense, vs an opponents average passing offense. I also then look at key injuries. I may adjust the line a little depending on this.
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11-12-11 06:07 PM #42
if your not losing, stay the **** out of the thread.I got screwed by refs, either way, only freeplays anyway
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11-12-11 06:09 PM #43
If u have inside information you won't lose, if you don't u don't have squat
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11-12-11 06:10 PM #44
It just isn't getting any better....OVER 63 in the Washington/USC game, only 7 points scored from the midway point of the 3rd quarter on. Waiting for KState to choke in overtime and lose by 7
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11-12-11 06:22 PM #45
thanks realitybias, i'll give that a shot.
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11-12-11 07:04 PM #46
Wow! I dont think Ive ever seen 0-11 in one day. BOL to both of us! I have Oregon and So Miss too! Originally Posted by smittysayz
Im 0-3 today including a 7 team ML where I only picked teams favored by 15+ points! Boise State fukked me with a 1 point loss! Unreal!Last edited by Pickem2win; 11-12-11 at 07:07 PM.
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11-12-11 07:06 PM #47
I watched this game. Unreal how good USC's defense was today! Normally they give up over 25 points per game and normally Washington scores over 33 points per game. How they finished out with 17 is just amazing. Missed the over by 1 td! Originally Posted by lite1up
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11-12-11 09:14 PM #48
Boise state shat the bed on 3 or 4 ML parlays for me. 2 of them were dime plays. Just trying to break even on the day after that nightmare. Need this oregon - stan OVER, it will be huge for me. AND I unloaded on some second half plays. All goes well and I may even end up in the black.
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11-12-11 10:17 PM #49
0-2 today -$1650..had a dime on ohiost/purdue under45..with 1 min to go in that game it was 20-14..OSU hits a miracle 4th dwn TD to make it 20-20..IM THINKING ok fine kick extra point 21-20 ballgame with 45 sec to go...EXTRA POINT BLOCKED..game goes to OT im ******..and washington got rolled by USC bad bad pick..thats it..i think im going take a nice break and come back for bowls and playoffs...had 5 NASTY nasty beats in the past 3 weeks on big$$$ plays..Just unlucky i guess but i cant take it anymore. Today was a bad day
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11-12-11 11:08 PM #50
Lost 1000 I got ******
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11-13-11 05:23 AM #51
Stanford craps the bed and New Mexico and UNLV play a defensive struggle to round out my night. Worst day of college football in a long, long time.
1-7 overall, my only win coming on Kansas State +5 (and it took damn near a miracle for them to cover). 1-9 if you count losing both ends of 2 parlays I had today.
The burial is nearly complete. Money management flew out the window after a few bad losses to start my Saturday. Really need to be more disciplined
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11-13-11 08:14 AM #52
Originally Posted by lite1up
these teams average 80+ points everytime they play
how the fukk are you doing an under on a stanford- oregon game?? are you crazy??
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11-13-11 08:19 AM #53
hind sights 20/20 brah.
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11-13-11 03:58 PM #54
Yeah, I over-thought that play...figured Stanford's defense would step up, instead it's clear they're a product of a weak schedule. At least Stanford -3 had no chance so I don't have to kick myself for that play. Originally Posted by brahmabull117
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