[chankng]

How is that possible????????????? -3.5???? whats the catch here guys??? Ranked 13, just smashed purdue (which is better than iowa)and they are only laying 3.5? doesnt make sense. I know they lost 2 consecutive year to them, but this year michigan is damn different,

[Smoke_O]

Iowa is a tough place to win a game at. Michigan traditionally does not fare well there. Iowa will play UM tough and force denard to throw the ball and we all know that will be an adventure. But the much maligned UM defense is aton better then they were last year and they should create favorable field advantage. I like UM at no higher then 4. Also there is a big advantage in the speed department for UM...Iowa is a slow team

[suicidekings]

I think the line makes sense as Iowa will put up a strong effort after the loss to Minnesota last week, which was a game the Gophers won on the strength of a very rare (for them) sack-fumble and a recovered onside kick in the 4Q. The Hawkeyes are going to be pissed in this game.

Adjusting team stats to account for who they've each faced, you get a Michigan team that's a little above average in most categories and an Iowa team that's a little below average. In particular, Michigan has faced some fairly weak run defense this season, so it's not impossible that Iowa contains the Michigan running game to a greater degree than would seem likely from just looking at the raw stats. That being said, the Hawkeye pass rush isn't going to get to Denard Robinson, and Iowa is allowing a ridiculous 66.4% completion rate despite facing mostly subpar passing offenses all season. He's going to have a lot of time to work, and a lot of options available both in the backfield (Toussaint) and downfield, including a 6'4", 260lb senior TE in Kevin Koger that Iowa has no one to guard.

At the other end, Vanderberg is a quality QB option (1918 passing yards, 17 TD, 4 INT) but he's very much a pocket passer that has been flushed out a lot this season (17 sacks, -130 yards) and 52 "rush attempts" for -62 yards. If he has time to work, he can do some damage. The Michigan secondary is back to full strength with Kovacs returning, but is still just average overall.

I'd say the keys to this game for Michigan are pressuring Vanderberg (who Minnesota sacked 3 times last game despite being dead last in sacks) and establishing their running game early. If both of these happen, Michigan rolls. If not, it could be a close game.