I understand that everyone has their opinions and own ways of capping football games. Everyone always thinks they are on the right side, and tries to come up with ways to back their opinions. I get that.
All this week we have seen the dogs cash the ticket. Ohio beat Temple, Tulsa beat UCF, and everyone thought the better team lost. I see alot of people are jumping on Colorado tonight; is it because the home team have been live dogs this week?? I guess I just don't get it.
Everyone is banking on Colorado to cover based on the assumption that USC is gonna come out flat after their game against Stanford. People think that the altitude will effect the way they play, they are saying that an imaginary snowstorm is going to bury the stadium...whatever the reason I guess my question is what if that stuff doesn't happen?? Does Colorado still cover?
Each game comes down to match-ups. Both Ohio and Tulsa matched up well with their opponents, thats why they covered the spread, those games were a pretty much coin flips on who would win. USC/Colorado there should be no debate on who will win outright. Everyone was riding high on BC last night as the home dog against FSU...GOY's, LOY's all over the place, even some people on the BC ML...and everyone saw what happened in that game. USC/Colorado game is pretty much the same deal...clearly a mismatch...I don't believe anyone thinks that Colorado stands a chance for the outright win, they are just hoping that they don't get blown out.
Basing your play solely on an assumption that a certain situation is going to happen and it doesn't can make all the difference in a game. People thought Pierce was going to have a moster running game because there were pro scouts in the stands and he was Temple's key to victory and he was held to what...30 yrds on the ground??? Maybe if he had more production they would have won the game but the assumption that he would didn't come through. Everyone assumed that because UCF has only allowed 7 points at home this year that they were going to shutdown Tulsa's offense and thats how they'd win, that didn't happen either.
So what if USC comes out to play tonight...they don't have a hangover, it's not snowing and the altitude doesn't affect them. Does Colorado still have a chance?? This is just another example of a bad match up...I'd rather back the clearly better team than hope that Colorado catches a break out of their control.