[JerryTheGreek]

hey guys i am new to this sbr forum, i thought i'd offer up some anaylsis on the colorado/usc game as most people find my inights pretty insightful or so i have been told.

usc is a 21.5 point favorite on the road. this is key. the reason for this is they are a much better team on offense and defense. if they were at home they would be favored by more than 30!

the thing is that we cant just make a bet based on who the better team is. it's not that easy guys. i have been reading this forum a while now and see a lot of this type of thinking. u have to look at motivation too.
it is friday night in colorado. that means something. how excited will usc be after that stanford game? this is colorado's big game of the year, but for usc is much less meaningful.

see what i mean? i dig a little deeper than most of you. stats say usc in a rout, but so much more to look at.

no pick yet, may have to look at the total. but just wanted to give you all something to think about before you make your bets. i will be back tomorrow

Jerry

[bmuelle21]

hey guys i am new to this sbr forum, i thought i'd offer up some anaylsis on the colorado/usc game as most people find my inights pretty insightful or so i have been told.

usc is a 21.5 point favorite on the road. this is key. the reason for this is they are a much better team on offense and defense. if they were at home they would be favored by more than 30!

the thing is that we cant just make a bet based on who the better team is. it's not that easy guys. i have been reading this forum a while now and see a lot of this type of thinking. u have to look at motivation too.
it is friday night in colorado. that means something. how excited will usc be after that stanford game? this is colorado's big game of the year, but for usc is much less meaningful.

see what i mean? i dig a little deeper than most of you. stats say usc in a rout, but so much more to look at.

no pick yet, may have to look at the total. but just wanted to give you all something to think about before you make your bets. i will be back tomorrow

Jerry

i agree with you to an extent. I agree that you have to look at motivation when making your picks (especially in college sports) but I think when ppl start looking at motivation they tend to give motivation too much weight. Some ppl will focus too much on motivation and forget about the statistics. I'm not saying thats what you are doing but I'm just stating what i've noticed with other ppl when making there picks.

BTW you are 100% right on that there is so much more to look at then just statistics.

[bmuelle21]

o yea...welcome to the forum!

[visualrealism]

Say a qb just landed a big contract. Is that a factor in this"motivation" category?

[bmuelle21]

Say a qb just landed a big contract. Is that a factor in this"motivation" category?

I would say you would have to take that into account when making your plays but like I said earlier some ppl would make that a bigger deal then it really is. If that makes any sense...

[Coach Jake]

The Colorado players are more motivated to fake injuries, instead of playing out vs USC. So you waited all this time just to come on and post for Colorado? They are the most injury riddled team in FBS and their coach is no genius. Good luck, if there were any time to be "motivated" than it was homecoming vs Oregon when they destroyed us with their backup qb, hahaha

[GunShard]

I have USC in a 7 point teaser.

Colorado are a terrible team. Just awful to watch.

[Seaton420]

I dont care if the coach died and his last wish was to beat USC! motivation blah blah blah. USC far superior and i see a score like the FSU game. USC will def be motivated to show what they got on ESPN on friday night spot lights! USC by 28+

[Time2Score]

Don't forget this game isn't "meaningless" to USC. Either way it's still a conference game and on top of that USC's offense has been pretty in sync the past 5-6 games (with the exception of ASU)...I'm sure weather will play a small factor in this game, but USC should be mentally tough enough to forget about the cold weather and play their hardest. I predict this game being a 42-7 game or 35-10 game. USC might try to be smarter with their time of possesion this game to keep their offense hot throughout the game. As far as the O/U...it seems like the public is backing the over here, but it might be just as disappointing as the Colorado/Oregon games when the OU was set at 64 and went under by 3 possessions. A teaser of USC and Under would be my play of choice, with a little money on USC as a side at -20.5(hook) or -21. BOL to all!

[JerryTheGreek]

ok now that i have given you some thought provoking info about the line lets look at the total. 57.5. do any of you really think colo will get into a lot of scoring with usc? no way. one of 2 scenarios is that it's usc in a blowout or they come out flat and let colorado hang around...but it will be low scoring if they do. offenses are the ones that will come out flat more than defenses.

the correct play is the under 57.5

[frankthetank]

colorado will hang in there. maybe back door cover. Play the Buffs

[theangryelf]

Jerry I do agree with you that motivation is key but what happened to BC last night against Florida State. They got stomped. This was suppose to be BC's big game of the year on Nat'l TV and they could hardly move the ball with Rettig under center. Same thing will happen tonight. Don't overthink this one at all.

[dcmoney52]

ok now that i have given you some thought provoking info about the line lets look at the total. 57.5. do any of you really think colo will get into a lot of scoring with usc? no way. one of 2 scenarios is that it's usc in a blowout or they come out flat and let colorado hang around...but it will be low scoring if they do. offenses are the ones that will come out flat more than defenses.

the correct play is the under 57.5

The correct play is USC -13 1st half...1st half betting is where the $$$$ at...Just like last night with F$U game..the hard part is to figure out how much i want 2 win!

[tiger_bait]

see what i mean? i dig a little deeper than most of you.

Jerry

lol....I love you man

[GunShard]

Congrats to all the USC bettors.