1. #1
    spladle08
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    Spladle08's week 10 fade material

    welp, Ive been on a downward spiral for 2 week, lets make my pain your pleasure... I hope I go 0-10 this week and everyone who fades me gets rich... ...anyway tonight I am on Temple -3 and the under... not a lot of reasoning, just the basics... so fade that, and over the next few days I will give my flawed analysis of games and obviously if you play the opposite you will get rich.... good luck

    Short justification, on the under, and Temple.

    Though Ohio and Temple have scored a lot in other games, I don't see this being a shootout. Temple's D has been money on the road, holding opponents to 23 points (total) over 3 games (Maryland, Akron, Bowling Green) not the greatest competition but still an impressive number. Ohio hasnt been as impressive at home but they have given up a total of 40points through 4 games (which is also a pretty impressive number despite the competition) the more I look the more I want to justify Temple -3 as the play and not so much the UNDER... let me sidetrack

    I know Ohio has been better in the past
    Temple has the monster defense and relies heavily on the run. Ohio has a lack-luster defense, and has had some pretty crappy run-stopping performances (the only reason their rushing against is 119 is because they gave up 6 to NMST and 81 to Akron... without those 2 numbers it would be 145+). Common opponents include Buffalo, Ball State, and Akron, who Temple outscored 117-3 (winning all 3 games obviously) while Ohio, went 94-81 dropping 2 of the 3 contests (Ball State/Buffalo) wow...

    Temple is 12-4 ATS over the last 4 seasons in road games, while Ohio is 5-1 in November games ATS, and 5-1 o/u in those games.... interesting,

    Temple though is 0-7 over/under and I think their D will control this one, I am hoping for a final score of 14-10 or something like that, but who knows...

    Anyways Im getting started on my 8-game fade material, Im done with this game GL CHICOs



    and.....



    FADE MATERIAL #1 locked in for 3u....

    UTEP/Rice: UTEP +1 nevermind OVER 56.5 for 3u
    what the hell is going on here? Am I seeing things?

    UTEP has been better across the board… true they have played softer competition but let’s looks at some games from both sides.
    The only common opponents are Houston and Southern Miss (who are both good teams) Houston beat Utep by 7 and Rice by 39. Southern Miss beat Rice by 24 and Utep by 18… nothing too spectacular in those numbers.

    Neither team has any notable wins; I guess you could consider Purdue a decent win for Rice… but after I make one more point I’m abandoning the side and jumping on the “Over” bandwagon (I assume there is one out there somewhere.)


    UTEP is favored in almost every relevant statistical category, points for/against, Passing-Rushing for/against, Turnover diff, etc… true Rice has played Baylor/Tulsa/Houston and they can make a lot of teams defenses look bad but I’m just not seeing why the line has moved in their favor. Fun stat:

    “The betting public is correct when moving the total in RICE games 35.3% of the time since 1992. (30-55)”

    Last year UTEP won big at home (44-24) and the year before Rice won @ home 30-29 but were aided by 6 UTEP turnovers… a 1 point victory when you are +5 on turnovers… hmmmm anyways if I had to play a side I would say UTEP easy, but I am going to look at this over instead.

    SINCE 2002 no less than 59points (total) has been scored in ANY game between theses 2 teams, the average total in those 9 games is ~73

    Both teams give up points (27 for Utep, 37 for Rice) Both teams have offenses able to score (Rice has only been held under 20 once this year), and history is on my side… Im taking OVER 56.5 for 3u… BOOM Cash it



    EDIT****
    No clue whats going on with the font, it wont let me fix it...

  2. #2
    spladle08
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    Baylor/Missouri Over 73 Not sure if I am 100% sold, but Im going to put 2u on it… fade-away

    Let me start off by saying I think Missouri is going to win this game outright… they are getting 2points, but I think they win by 10… anyways let’s talk about this over briefly
    The match-up that will concern most people is the Missouri Defense vs the Baylor Offense… everyone knows Baylor’s Defense will give up 35+ but Im sure some are concerned that Missouri’s offense may be able to stifle this potent Baylor attack… WRONG.

    Fun Fact: Missouri’s road passing defense is ranked 112th in the country.


    I like this… I also like that Baylor has only been held under 30 2x this year, both times on the road (A&M and OKST) and I don’t even count the Okie state game, they had like 5 turnovers, a couple down around the goal line, and they still managed 24. Greatness.

    At home Baylor has actually averaged ~51 points per game while giving up ~26, but their defense isn’t really that good (they held SFA scoreless so it improves the number… don’t feel bad if you don’t know who SFA is, you shouldn’t). So average total for home games 51+26=77 boom!

    Missouri’s average road score (no clue what this is, I hope it works with my current line of thinking) = only 28 for and 32 against for a total of 60 (I wonder if the 1-3 record on the road for Missouri vs the 4-0 record at home for Baylor is why this line has moved like that… ask A&M how well Missouri travels) 73 is a lot and I don’t know if I want to call it a lock but I will put it out for others to criticize. Enjoy

    Baylor has gone over in 6 of 7 games while Missouri has gone over in 5 of 8…

    The more I think about it, 73 really is a huge number… buttttt I do appreciate the fact that Baylor has only gone under it only 2x (the 49-0 win over SFA, and the 36-35 loss to KSU for a 71 point total win win win )

    Side note: Missouri has only traveled to play legit teams and some strong defenses so their road numbers are down for a reason: @ASU, @OU, @A&M, @ KSU
    Last edited by spladle08; 11-02-11 at 09:13 AM.

  3. #3
    kwangusbeef
    back on grind
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    everyone has up and downs bro, just hang in there. i got beat up pretty bad last few weeks myself thanks to some bs missed fgs / phantom pi calls etc etc..

  4. #4
    House
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    spladle as much as I hate to say it,go back to your old avatar ...just try it I'm very superstitious .... lol get back on track bro.....ask you son,......lol I asked my daughter to make a couple picks when I couldn't hit a lick......and she picked 2 outa 3 lol the two she picked that were winners were not the two I was leaning towards..the other loser we both had ...Rice Owls to cover ...looked good the first half..I was bragging to my girl,see daddy picked that one and its looking good.....lmol I would've lost all 3 games that day but my daughter saved me good luck spladle.....start looking for the dogs ..their barking!!!

  5. #5
    upscope
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    Quote Originally Posted by House View Post
    spladle as much as I hate to say it,go back to your old avatar ...just try it I'm very superstitious ....
    As much as I hate to say it....I agree w/ this

    BOL

  6. #6
    House
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    Right ^ ?

  7. #7
    bspring
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    I just wrote what House did in your other post... go back to the orig spladle

  8. #8
    spladle08
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    let the transformation begin...

  9. #9
    House
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    NICE ......lets get that dude with the ears back......and bro,START LOOKING FOR DOGS!!!! Thats the only problem I see other than the avatar ...Even though she's bad,she hasn't been good to you though bro........get em Spladle

  10. #10
    spladle08
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    Missouri is a dog, and I like them... I have recommended lots of dogs, I just never have enough balls to add them into my picks... I feel like I need to start playing the games I was completely in the dark about pre-research and favor one team for whatever reason after looking at all the numbers.

    I feel like those are always the ones I nail since Im not biased going in... but I have only locked in those 2 above bets and the 2 for tonights game, Im going to get to looking around and maybe come across some gems, but I will keep an eye peeled for dogs for sure...

    GL GUYS.. BTW who are yall on tonight? Mixed bag? Half Ohio half Temple?

  11. #11
    spladle08
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    and hey! UTEP is a dog as well... thats 2 dogs I think are good for straight up wins... GO GO GO

  12. #12
    spladle08
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    AFA vs Army : Air Force -15, Over 61 (cant deny it)
    Simply put Air Force owns Army. AFA won 42-22 last year and 35-7 in 2009…both of the last 2 have gone over and AFA is 6-1 Over/Under this year so that may be a play as well. Anyways let’s make this brief.

    Army is not very good this year, and brutal on the road.
    at home they have beaten, Northwestern (21-14), Fordham (55-0) and Tulane (45-6) they also played San Diego State close in a 20-23 loss.
    On the road they have lost to Vandy by 23, Miami(OH) by 7, Ball State by 37, and NIU by 23 (if you were keeping track, only one loss was by less than 3 scores)
    The fewest points they have allowed on the road is 35(against a Miami team that only averages 20 per game)
    The most they have scored on the road is 28.

    AFA doesnt have a lot of great defensive numbers but they have played some potent offenses and one can expect defensive numbers to look suspect after playing TCU/BOISE/Notre Dame.

    Not going to go any deeper but going to throw out a few more stats:
    AFA is 3-1 ATS at home while Army is 0-4 ATS on the road.
    AFA has gone over in all 4 home games, while Army has gone over in all 4 road games… I like it.
    The total is set at 61
    AFA games have averaged a total of 66.5 @ home
    Army road games have averaged 68

    I’m not afraid of 2 rushing attacks going at it, so the clock being an issue, “AFA vs Navy” and “Army vs Vandy” are 2 examples of rush heavy teams battling and the total never being an issue.. go go go

    Fade me.


  13. #13
    spladle08
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    A few Dogs that might be worth looking into if anyone has time:

    WSU @ Cal
    (who knows which Cal will show, they game is @ Cal but WSU getting 9.5 against a team that almost lost to CO and has only topped 24 once in their last 5 games… seems like a good bet… +Lobbestael is good)

    South Fla @ Rutgers +2.5: Rutgers plays defense, and South Florida is over-rated, and the cold may be a factor, and Rutgers crushed them last time they made the trip, and has won ATS each of the last 2 years.

    Missouri+2.5 vs Baylor I already wrote about it above. Missouri is good, and Baylor can just score… it will be a shoot-out but Missouri is a bit better on defense.

    IOWA +4 vs Michigan

    Ball State +2 vs Eastern Michigan

    CMU over Kent

    Tulsa over UCF

  14. #14
    spladle08
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    Im soooo bored

    Arizona State -8.5
    Quick hits.
    UCLA sucks and they lose decisively.
    ASU has only lost 2 games this year, and their closest victory was 7 points over Missouri, every other victory has come by 15+ including wins over USC and Utah by 21.
    ASU is ahead in most statistical categories.
    ASU won by 21 last year.
    Only Oregon and Missouri have scored more than 22 vs ASU
    Only Oregon and Illinois have held ASU to less than 28
    UCLA has only covered 2 spreads this year
    Oddly enough (I know this isn’t really relevant) After a good defensive performance, UCLA has followed it up with a horrible one…LOOK
    Houston -38 then San Jose St -17
    Texas -49 then Oregon State -19
    Stanford 45 followed by WSU -25
    Arizona 48 Followed by California 14
    Arizona State….. Followed by Utah….
    BET ASU



    I think I am just going to write on some big games that I probably won’t be playing because I have already decided on my Elite 8 and they are mostly games nobody cares about.

    Bama vs LSU: LSU +5 or Under 42
    This is going to be a battle, LSU +5 though.. how do you not take that?
    Offenses average the same amount of points, while Bama fields the “better” defense; they give up 6 points a game while LSU gives up 11 buttttttttt, the discrepancy in offenses the teams have played plays a role in that…
    LSU has played Oregon and WVU who both made it to the 20’s take out those games and you are looking at the same team defensively.

    LSU has the more experienced QB, and I think McCarron may get overwhelmed by the pressure of his first “real” big game against a nasty LSU secondary, obviously this will add pressure to T. Richardson, and LSU shouldn’t have a problem tailoring their game plan to stop the run, with the absence of the pass.

    Bama on the other hand shouldn’t have a terribly difficult time stopping LSU from scoring, they field a great defense, and LSU isn’t a super powerful offense (just saying a lot of their offensive success comes from a dominating defense) Jarrett Lee should get most of the snaps, but I don’t think it matters which QB starts, it’s going to come down to starting field position.

    …so yeah, with all that typed, I think I’m leaning towards the idea that whichever defense gives their offense the best starting field position will win the game. Lol the over/under is at 42… what a I missing, I expect this game to be something like 10-6 am I taking crazy pills? I am actually probably just going to bet this for fun but at +5 I don’t see how you can’t take LSU… I think their potent defense vs a young QB = Success I hope.


    Arkansas vs South Carolina: Ark-5
    Quick hits
    Arkansas has crushed SC the last 2 years
    41-20 and 33-16

    The game is at Arkansas, and SC has had some offensive struggles scoring 14 or less in 3 of their last 4 games with the lone exception being a pasting of UK.

    Arkansas has scored 29+ in every game except Alabama where they put up the most of any team Bama has played (14)

    at Arkansas -5 I think it’s very safe.
    (They haven't had a close home game but they have also played mostly puffs, with the exception of Auburn who they pasted)


  15. #15
    Coach Jake
    Winning
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    I think LSU BAMA is the best under of the year!!! 2 of the best defenses with questionable offenses....And as good as Trent Richardson is he doesn't play QB, and Bama doesn't run a no huddle, high paced ofense either. If you have 2 of the best defenses, and then a running powered offense, then that meets 3 of the 4 green under factors, and LSU's offense is far from a red plag.

    You know i've been on the Bama killin' people all year train, but I'm going under on this one....Im really hoping USC stomps out Colorado so I can double this one up.

  16. #16
    spladle08
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    Lol this is a hell of a sweat... I can't win both bets without a safety... so I'm hoping this is the final score or temple goes on a tear.... I'm ok with losing the juice.
    . But not both bets..

  17. #17
    spladle08
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    I'm gonna start fading myself

  18. #18
    spladle08
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    OK so my final card is....

    AFA/ARMY: OVER 59
    Utep/Rice: UTEP ML
    Utep/Rice: Over 56.5
    ARK. ST/FAU: Ark. St. -17
    ARK/SC: ARK -5.5
    ASU/UCLA: ASU -8.5
    Baylor/Missouri: OV 73
    Rutgers/USF: Rutgers ML


    FADE ME HARD


    Only 8 plays because I want to win for once

  19. #19
    gilbert91016
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    Texas A&M/Oklahoma OVER 68 looks good any opinion. really like UTEP/RICE over bol this week

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