welp, Ive been on a downward spiral for 2 week, lets make my pain your pleasure... I hope I go 0-10 this week and everyone who fades me gets rich... ...anyway tonight I am on Temple -3 and the under... not a lot of reasoning, just the basics... so fade that, and over the next few days I will give my flawed analysis of games and obviously if you play the opposite you will get rich.... good luck
Short justification, on the under, and Temple.
Though Ohio and Temple have scored a lot in other games, I don't see this being a shootout. Temple's D has been money on the road, holding opponents to 23 points (total) over 3 games (Maryland, Akron, Bowling Green) not the greatest competition but still an impressive number. Ohio hasnt been as impressive at home but they have given up a total of 40points through 4 games (which is also a pretty impressive number despite the competition) the more I look the more I want to justify Temple -3 as the play and not so much the UNDER... let me sidetrack
I know Ohio has been better in the past
Temple has the monster defense and relies heavily on the run. Ohio has a lack-luster defense, and has had some pretty crappy run-stopping performances (the only reason their rushing against is 119 is because they gave up 6 to NMST and 81 to Akron... without those 2 numbers it would be 145+). Common opponents include Buffalo, Ball State, and Akron, who Temple outscored 117-3 (winning all 3 games obviously) while Ohio, went 94-81 dropping 2 of the 3 contests (Ball State/Buffalo) wow...
Temple is 12-4 ATS over the last 4 seasons in road games, while Ohio is 5-1 in November games ATS, and 5-1 o/u in those games.... interesting,
Temple though is 0-7 over/under and I think their D will control this one, I am hoping for a final score of 14-10 or something like that, but who knows...
Anyways Im getting started on my 8-game fade material, Im done with this game GL CHICOs
and.....
FADE MATERIAL #1 locked in for 3u....
UTEP/Rice: UTEP +1 nevermind OVER 56.5 for 3u
what the hell is going on here? Am I seeing things?
UTEP has been better across the board… true they have played softer competition but let’s looks at some games from both sides.
The only common opponents are Houston and Southern Miss (who are both good teams) Houston beat Utep by 7 and Rice by 39. Southern Miss beat Rice by 24 and Utep by 18… nothing too spectacular in those numbers.
Neither team has any notable wins; I guess you could consider Purdue a decent win for Rice… but after I make one more point I’m abandoning the side and jumping on the “Over” bandwagon (I assume there is one out there somewhere.)
UTEP is favored in almost every relevant statistical category, points for/against, Passing-Rushing for/against, Turnover diff, etc… true Rice has played Baylor/Tulsa/Houston and they can make a lot of teams defenses look bad but I’m just not seeing why the line has moved in their favor. Fun stat:
“The betting public is correct when moving the total in RICE games 35.3% of the time since 1992. (30-55)”
Last year UTEP won big at home (44-24) and the year before Rice won @ home 30-29 but were aided by 6 UTEP turnovers… a 1 point victory when you are +5 on turnovers… hmmmm anyways if I had to play a side I would say UTEP easy, but I am going to look at this over instead.
SINCE 2002 no less than 59points (total) has been scored in ANY game between theses 2 teams, the average total in those 9 games is ~73
Both teams give up points (27 for Utep, 37 for Rice) Both teams have offenses able to score (Rice has only been held under 20 once this year), and history is on my side… Im taking OVER 56.5 for 3u… BOOM Cash it
EDIT**** No clue whats going on with the font, it wont let me fix it...