[Machine Choice]

NIU gave up 48 points to CMU. CMU. They gave up 30 to Buffalo, which is one of the worst offensive teams in the country FCS or FBS!

This will definitely be the worst defense Toledo has seen all year.

And Toledo has the 27th ranked rush defense against solid competiton, and NIU relies on the rush. Mismatch.

I guess the line is still in single digits because of last year's matchup, but people don't realize that Toledo only had 5 returning starters on defense last year. This year it's 9. NIU had 15 returning starters last year, and this year 10 with only 2 on defense.

And now Toledo is 20th in total offense. Toledo is 3-1 ATS at home this year, NIU is 0-3 ATS on the road.

Whatever. I think Toledo is going to get some revenge for last year's blowout. Clear weather tonight, no critical injuries. No letdown spot.

TOLEDO 52
NIU 26

TOLEDO -8.5

[BigdaddyQH]

That seems to be the obvious play.

[jds07v]

I like Toledo here, but what do you think about this?

Toledo -6 / Over Parlay (pays 2.2 to 1)
Toledo Team Total Over 38

[frankzig]

the parlay looks good

[cant call it]

No way toledo loses this game.
I am taking NIU

[Veets]

Toledo is at -10 at my book...glad I got it at 8.5 Machine let's get this

[suicidekings]

The only concern this play presents is that Toledo is a bit weak in their secondary and NIU does have a capable QB that receives excellent protection from the OL. If NIU decides to pass a lot early, Toledo could have a tougher matchup on their hands than it would appear on the surface.

[TheCommish]

I like it, too. The numbers certainly support it.

SoS rank
NIU: 112
Toledo: 49

Toledo's Offense Ranks 69 points better then NIU's Defense. Given the huge SoS differential, Toledo looks good here.

[DerekMadden]

I agree!

I got a teaser with

Toledo -2.5 and Over 61

[MartinBlank]

Its great you got it at 8.5----it is 9.5/10 in some places now.

Toledo certainly seems to be rolling everyone. The only team to slow them down has been Boise. Everyone else, they have scored on.

[thebestthereis]

No way toledo loses this game.
I am taking NIU

this exactly how you handicap a game. good luck!

[jakeloftin2186]

Damn not looking good

[shooms79]

thats why a game is 4q. case in point: mnf sd/kc

[jakeloftin2186]

Toledo defense is worse then I thought and Toledo changed qbs after the starter lead two drives

[CADILLACII]

need a big 2nd half!!! time to step up home team!!

[riffraff24]

Lets get this!! Cmon Toledo!

[jakeloftin2186]

How r both defenses so terrible

[riffraff24]

Absolutely no defense on either side. looks like the safe pick was the over.

[fecgp40]

How did Toledo not use their timeouts on defense when the clock was down to a minute and the other team was about to score? I know they wouldn't have covered the 8.5 anyway, but still. Doesn't it seem like there's some wierd stuff going on with Toledo football this year? I.E. the Syracuse game...

[GimpedMaster]

Machine, I'm usually in agreement with ya and I often follow you but this game it just seemed too unpredictable from the get go, made a nice chunk of change on the NIU Moneyline and live-betting the money line at +400 during the game...

Toledo may have been the correct choice from a research perspective but as you said yourself when you took your little time out from capping, there's alot more to it than that, and one of the big factors you just can't account for is luck. I think this game was decided on the moneyline simply by who had the last possession and in this case it was NIU.

[megamillionslose]

Only needed Toledo to win by one to win my teaser.Allowed N IL to run the clock down under 30 seconds in four down territory when Toledo had all three timeouts left.WTF!!

How did Toledo not use their timeouts on defense when the clock was down to a minute and the other team was about to score? I know they wouldn't have covered the 8.5 anyway, but still. Doesn't it seem like there's some wierd stuff going on with Toledo football this year? I.E. the Syracuse game...

[Veets]

All good, just another play. Get after it the next game

[BernardMadoff]

Only needed Toledo to win by one to win my teaser.Allowed N IL to run the clock down under 30 seconds in four down territory when Toledo had all three timeouts left.WTF!!

Why would they call a timeout and help NIU out? They were trying to make a stop and win the game.

[texhooper]

Why would they call a timeout and help NIU out? They were trying to make a stop and win the game.

they hadn't made a stop all game and niu had enough time regardless to do what they wanted. whatever was going to happen would have happened with 1:45-1:30 left or the 19 seconds that were left when they did score. i was pretty surprised when they let almost 2 minutes run off the clock with goal to go. could have easily gotten into field goal range with the time they lost and we could still be watching this game now actually,

[CHAZ]

Machine, I'm usually in agreement with ya and I often follow you but this game it just seemed too unpredictable from the get go, made a nice chunk of change on the NIU Moneyline and live-betting the money line at +400 during the game...

Toledo may have been the correct choice from a research perspective but as you said yourself when you took your little time out from capping, there's alot more to it than that, and one of the big factors you just can't account for is luck. I think this game was decided on the moneyline simply by who had the last possession and in this case it was NIU.

Where was this before the game started....

[BernardMadoff]

they hadn't made a stop all game and niu had enough time regardless to do what they wanted. whatever was going to happen would have happened with 1:45-1:30 left or the 19 seconds that were left when they did score. i was pretty surprised when they let almost 2 minutes run off the clock with goal to go. could have easily gotten into field goal range with the time they lost and we could still be watching this game now actually,

I understand but after the two false starts pushing them further back, I could kind of see their reasoning, sad neither team played much defense, pathetic DB's all across the board

[DerekMadden]

I understand but after the two false starts pushing them further back, I could kind of see their reasoning, sad neither team played much defense, pathetic DB's all across the board

the delay of game and false start penalty was a play by NIU
I remember back in high school we had a similar play where our right tackle would "fall on his face"
after the penalty the clock starts again...

it was just a way for NIU to run more time off the clock because they knew they could score

[Machine Choice]

My only question is: where was Toledo's defense?

NIU defense...about what I expected.

But how does Toledo allow NIU to score more on them than Boise State did?

Rhetorical question. There are no answers, only questions.

[DerekMadden]

My only question is: where was Toledo's defense?

NIU defense...about what I expected.

But how does Toledo allow NIU to score more on them than Boise State did?

Rhetorical question. There are no answers, only questions.

that kind of stuff, falls completely on coaching.

[AdaBarber]

Tuesdays games are fixed. What I see is that don't ever go with the obvious choice on Tuesday. Remember UCF was a 14 point favorite and lost by 2?

[skers11]

I think when they select whose playin these mid week games they are just looking to screw the public

niu smashed them 65-30 last year, has the best qb in the conference and returns most of starters from that same team, so why is everyone so surprised?

[Machine Choice]

and returns most of starters from that same team, so why is everyone so surprised?

Only on offense, not on defense

[BigdaddyQH]

This is just another perfect example of why you DO NOT play MAC games, especially on weekdays. The line climbs from 8 to 10, and one again, Joe Pub takes a bath. Did you really think that the books were not going to sucker Joe Pub into thinking that Toledo was the obvious play after the hits they have taken this season? Books depend on people who cannot watch a game without having action on it. If you guys fall into that catagory, you will never succeed in this business. Last night was a perfect examle of that.

[ManBearPig]

If I looked at the box score on this one and didn't have the teams or a final score attached I still would've picked the wrong team to win, not cover. Toledo's defense definitely shit the bed in this one and I can't imagine it just being that NIU has such a stellar offense and they're so much better than Toledo's defense.

NIU hasn't really played anybody while Toledo has played the likes of Ohio State and Boise, so they've seen more elite athletes. Not that Ohio St is considered an offensive power this year, they still have superior athletes on both sides of the ball and TOL only lost by 5. They were in the Boise game until the 2H and then they looked like last night.

I think this is just the case of two familiar teams that know each other well and NIU seems to have Toledos number right now as they've now won 4 of the last 7 match-ups by an avg of 22 pts in those wins.

[suicidekings]

If I looked at the box score on this one and didn't have the teams or a final score attached I still would've picked the wrong team to win, not cover. Toledo's defense definitely shit the bed in this one and I can't imagine it just being that NIU has such a stellar offense and they're so much better than Toledo's defense.

NIU hasn't really played anybody while Toledo has played the likes of Ohio State and Boise, so they've seen more elite athletes. Not that Ohio St is considered an offensive power this year, they still have superior athletes on both sides of the ball and TOL only lost by 5. They were in the Boise game until the 2H and then they looked like last night.

I think this is just the case of two familiar teams that know each other well and NIU seems to have Toledos number right now as they've now won 4 of the last 7 match-ups by an avg of 22 pts in those wins.

I give a lot of the credit to Harnish. He moved the ball very effectively both on the ground and in the air and Toledo had no answer for him. He hit the gaps when he could but multiple times he powered right up the middle and fought for the extra 3-5 yards for the first down. Huge personal effort.