1. #1
    twentysix
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    Join Date: 10-27-11
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    Hello, new to the forum and some thoughts for tonight 10/27

    Hello everyone. New to the forum and thought I would help contribute.

    I dont have a play on tonights games, but I do have some thoughts to take into consideration. I will post my plays when I think it can contribute to help provide winners. Although I do love the action, I just dont push out plays if I dont find an edge on a certain game that im comfortable with.

    Here are some thoughts on tonights matchups and maybe it can help the forum out in making a decesion.

    Virginia vs. Miami:

    Strickly looking at the numbers, I dont like it at all. A majority of the action coming in on the side is heavily backing Miami, yet the line isnt budging off the opening of 14. Some joints even brought it down to 13.5. I would be a little careful here backing Miami due to this. If you are going to take Miami, I would of recommended it while it was still at -13.5. Getting it at 14 may still hold value to some people, but I would keep this in mind.

    As for the total, I think its set about where it should be. These primetime games, the books like to inflate the lines a bit because they know that the majority of the action will be coming in on the over. I will say this: If you are going to take the dog at +14 or the favorite at -14, its better to have the live action going. I wouldnt take the under. I see no value in this total.

    Rice vs. Houston:

    This is a good cross-town rivalry. This line has moved up from the opening and that shouldnt surprise anyone. The key number here is 28. The side has jumped to 28 after staying put at 27.5 for most of the week. Dont be surprised if you see this line go up even more come gametime. I would recommend waiting closer to gametime if you like Rice because you will get more value. If you are going to take Houston, I would scoop it up now. As much as it seems like Houston is the play, I think getting key numbers with Rice would be the value play, but im not touching this game as its only an opinion.

    The total is set high in regards to most totals and its justified. The problem is, is it too inflated? Weather is going to be moving into the Houston area tonight. A cold front. It will bring rain and drop the temperature. Although it could help the over due to turnovers, it could also hurt the over. This is a lot of points to be dropping on a total and hoping that Houston continues its dominate performance in a rivalry game. If you like the under, wait closer to gametime. If you like the over, scoop it up now. If I had to make a play on it, I would rather be winning from the start than trying to play catchup for 60 minutes.

    Good luck everyone.
    Last edited by twentysix; 10-27-11 at 05:16 PM.

  2. #2
    DennisT
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    Let me be the first to welcome you to the Forum! Playing Miami -13 1/2 small.

  3. #3
    twentysix
    twentysix's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-11
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    Thank you Dennis and good luck on your play tonight. Hope it cashes.

  4. #4
    thfootball
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    i think there's more involved than moving money lines. QB situation, how the team plays at home/away, injuries--qb's mean alot, ranked offensively/defensively, and that's scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Anyway, good luck.

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