Here's my picks for week 9. Good luck
FIU -6.5L-turnovers killed FIU, they should've rolled last night
Uconn +10 vs Pitt L
Cal -5 vs UCLA- I really like this one!
I think Cal will end up winning by at least a touchdown. Both teams are not very impressive this year and UCLA is a let down. However, Cal beats UCLA in points scored, offense, turnovers, first downs, 3rd down conversions, redzone scoring, and time of possession. Cal is also ranked higher in strength of schedule and power rankings. The only upside UCLA has is yards per play, penalties, and rush yards per game.
Northwestern -9 vs Indiana
I haven't seen much of either team although I know Indiana is traditionally not very tough and Northwestern is a tad better. I like Dan Persa and I think the Wildcats should win by 10. They average more points per game, total offense, 3rd down conversions, penalties, and the turnover margin between the teams is huge. Indiana holds a better ATS record @ 4-4 as well as a better pass defense. I like the way NW played last weekend against PSU, too bad it was only for one half. Indiana is not PSU though. When it comes to common opponents NW has played Illinois and Iowa closer than Indiana has and Indiana has only played PSU better than NW, losing by just 6 points.
Stanford -7.5 vs USC
I like Stanford here for a couple of reasons. Their offense has been nuts all year. They beat USC in pass yards, rush yards, offensive turnovers, yards per play, and hold a 100% redzone efficiency rate. USC is only giving up 91 yards per game on the ground so that will surely slow down the 219 Stanford averages per game. USC also holds more defensive turnovers forced (13 vs 11) and they also win in Time of possession. Stanford is 7-0 against the spread and I haven't played them yet, but I don't see this being the week they don't cover. Should be a really good game for the first half and then see Stanford pull away.
Mississippi State -10 vs Kentucky
I don't like to give up 10 points on the road in the SEC but I think MSU will be able to pull it off. MSU averages 24 PPG against Kentucky's 16. Miss State also gives up 8 PPG less on defense than Kentucky does. Kentucky gives up 205 YPG on the ground while MSU averages 180! I really liked the way MSU played against South Carolina even though they have let down in other games during the year. Kentucky just can't match MSU, in their last 5 games they are 1-4 only beat Jacksonville State and have lost on average by 30 points per game.
TEASER: Missouri vs Texas A&M...Mizz+17 o55.5
This game should be a shootout. Mizzou averages 34ppg vs a&m's 40 ppg, each give up roughly 24ppg. I actually this this game will be really close and if A&M wins it may only be by a FG or TD. Look for a score of 42-35 or something like that. I honestly don't see how Mizz can't cover 17 points, they should be able to hang with them unless they have an epic meltdown.
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