1. 10-26-11 01:56 AM #1
    Machine Choice
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    Why I am taking Pitt -10 even though it seems like the wrong play

    Football record: 25-15 (63%)

    These are my thoughts on this matchup tomorrow, you'll probably disagree with most of this. Feel free to fire away. I don't care.

    Analyzing this game from Pitt's perspective, everything hinges on Graham's ability to pound the rock. UCONN will not score more than 13 points, so the question is whether Graham/Susneri will score less than 23 points.

    Will this game be like the Utah loss? No. Utah's rush defense is much better than UCONN's becuase Utah has played far better competition than UCONN. Utah's rush defense on paper is #14, in reality it is in the top 10 due to their schedule. UCONN's rush defense on paper is #11, in reality due to their poor schedule it is about #45 in the nation.

    Will this game be like the Rutgers loss? No. The Rutgers loss was on the road, and Pitt's QB's threw 4 picks in that game and Pitt had nine penalties.

    Will this game be like the South Florida win? Probably. There are similarities. The USF game was also a home, weeknight game against a conference opponent. Although USF's rush defense is worse than UCONN's, USF's offense is better than UCONN. Pitt still won 44-17.

    Will this game be like the Notre Dame loss? Hopefully. Pitt led 12-7 with 6 minutes to go in the game before letting it slip away. But Notre Dame is far superior to UCONN offensively and ND used an 8 for 8 Reese drive to win the game. UCONN will not be able to engineer these heroics with their dreadful offense.

    Will this game be like Iowa loss? Hopefully. Pitt led the game by 21 points at one point late in the 3Q, before coughing it up with late-game heroics. Again, UCONN does not have the offense to pull off a miracle comeback, especially on the road.

    Will this game be like the Maine game? FBS teams rarely take FCS teams seriously. These games are closer than they should be alot of times. Fluke close-win for Pitt.

    PITT 24-26 points
    UCONN 13
    Last edited by Machine Choice; 10-26-11 at 02:10 AM.
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  2. 10-26-11 02:17 AM #2
    BobHarvey
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    Nice write-up and analysis! I'm leaning Pitt but I'm going to do a little more research on it.

    Good luck!
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  3. 10-26-11 03:11 AM #3
    ManBearPig
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    I think you are pretty on point and think the most obvious concern here would be is if PIT can keep the TO's at a min and not let UCONN stay in the game by giving them ball back to them. They have the leading rusher in the conference in Graham who should be able to help PIT control the TOP and slow the game down and if they can get to the RZ, PIT has a fairly decent RedZone offense and can score TD's. UCONN's strong run defense appears to be a little misleading as they're not exactly shutting down powerhouses running the ball.

    I don't see anything indicating a lot of scoring and don't expect these two teams to air it out scoring a ton of points, in fact, UCONN's scoring 16pts/gm in conference games while PIT is around 27 indicating the disparity in SOS. UCONN has played a pretty weak schedule in comparison and really shouldn't be in this game too much, but as I mentioned I think that all depends on PIT's ability to control the game and not give UCONN unnecessary opportunities.

    I have this being around a 26-14 game and am not entirely sure I'll be playing this one. The under seems to be the play although the total is pretty spot on and a BS score could easily ruin a play on the under. According to pregame 80% are on the over so and they've only bumped it to 41.5 from 41..maybe there's something there.
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  4. 10-26-11 04:16 AM #4
    Degenerate Life
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    I've been to all the Pitt games at home this year. Honestly, I don't see them covering -10. The players they have don't fit the system on offense and it's starting to show. I believe opposing teams know that QB's aren't a threat to move the team and all they have to do is stop Graham.
    Last edited by Degenerate Life; 10-26-11 at 04:17 AM. Reason: Grammar
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  5. 10-26-11 06:05 AM #5
    spladle08
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    Think the rain will factor in at all?
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  6. 10-26-11 09:04 AM #6
    5mike5
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    u will win if u take pitt-10 tonight...big night for the pitt run game
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  7. 10-26-11 09:52 AM #7
    makinmoney11
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    ya mon!! Pitt!! thinking about heading up for the game. lots of tickets left and cheap!
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  8. 10-26-11 10:29 AM #8
    nomar122977
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    u comm + 10 over 41 for me. the way the last week has gone seems to be the play. road dogs are covering
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  9. 10-26-11 10:34 AM #9
    WinningIsKeY
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    u will win if u take pitt-10 tonight...big night for the pitt run game
    seems more possible to me than depending on UCONN's offense, BEST PLAY IMO- under, cold wet night with 2 defensive teams\

    GL all
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  10. 10-26-11 10:38 AM #10
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by nomar122977 View Post
    u comm + 10 over 41 for me
    No.

    UCONN has not scored an offensive touchdown in either of their last two games. Pitt defense better than USF and WVU by far
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  11. 10-26-11 10:51 AM #11
    Elysee26
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    80% chance of rain, temp in low 50's at kick? Leaning under....
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  12. 10-26-11 10:52 AM #12
    robinhood
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    Do you think the spread will go higher or lower closer to kickoff? I like Pitt also but my book has it at 10.5.
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  13. 10-26-11 10:55 AM #13
    NinjaDMP
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    I'm small on Connecticut and the Under, best of luck!
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  14. 10-26-11 10:58 AM #14
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by robinhood View Post
    Do you think the spread will go higher or lower closer to kickoff? I like Pitt also but my book has it at 10.5.
    Buy half a point if the line doesn't move. Or just play the under.
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  15. 10-26-11 11:18 AM #15
    suicidekings
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    Laying -10 on a team that has been unable to protect their QB all season (33 sacks in 7 games) against an above average defensive team seems unwise. I'm on UConn +10.5, small though.
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  16. 10-26-11 11:36 AM #16
    Dime Time
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    No sir, Mr. Machine.... 10 points are plenty here for a cover in this game, Uconn's defense will keep this game close.

    Pitt 17
    Uconn 13
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  17. 10-26-11 12:05 PM #17
    mp5070
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    hard Game to cap......It seems as though line 9-15 are harder to bet than the lines 3-7.5......
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  18. 10-26-11 12:23 PM #18
    riffraff24
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    Quote Originally Posted by nomar122977 View Post
    u comm + 10 over 41 for me. the way the last week has gone seems to be the play. road dogs are covering

    Nomahhhh!!! Isn't that what they want you to think?
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  19. 10-26-11 12:29 PM #19
    5mike5
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    unconn offense is absolutley dreadful...at least pitt has a superstar in the making at RB...pitt -10
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  20. 10-26-11 01:27 PM #20
    bigguyz
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    You could always do a parlay with conn and the under. Should cover easily 48 and 16(or around there).
    Keys to the game for Conn: UConns front,with Junior Trevardo Wiliams, senior tackles Twyon Martin and Kendall Reyes and junior Jesse Joseph bring a ton of experience and only give up 89 rushing yards a game (11th in the nation). The huskies also has one of the best kickers in college with Dave Teggart which could play a huge factor with the weather.

    Keys the game: Pressure quarterback Johnny McEntee and stop running back Lyle McCombs. Test the secondary that does not have Willson. Keep Teggart off the field.
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  21. 10-26-11 02:00 PM #21
    SimonSayz
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    I am having a hard time with the side on this game. However, looking at a 2 team teaser makes this look better.

    Pitt -3
    UNDER 48

    OR

    UCONN +17
    UNDER 48

    What do you guys think?
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  22. 10-26-11 02:06 PM #22
    thebestthereis
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    pitt is the don't make sense play obviously, they should not be laying 10 to anyone in division 1...that is why you take them. good luck!
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  23. 10-26-11 02:19 PM #23
    hydrosmak
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    Quote Originally Posted by SimonSayz View Post
    I am having a hard time with the side on this game. However, looking at a 2 team teaser makes this look better.

    Pitt -3
    UNDER 48

    OR

    UCONN +17
    UNDER 48

    What do you guys think?
    I went with a 7.5pt teaser and the Pitt -2.5/Under 48. GL
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  24. 10-26-11 02:24 PM #24
    nomar122977
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machine Choice View Post
    No.

    UCONN has not scored an offensive touchdown in either of their last two games. Pitt defense better than USF and WVU by far
    thats why im picking uconn +10 and over. the books ride continues. everyone and their mother will be on pitt under. im not falling for it
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  25. 10-26-11 02:26 PM #25
    nomar122977
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    Quote Originally Posted by riffraff24 View Post
    Nomahhhh!!! Isn't that what they want you to think?
    no they want you to think this goes under and pitt. im taking a shot at uconn over im sick of getting screwed by favs not covering.
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  26. 10-26-11 05:48 PM #26
    Dime Time
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    If they hung a 7.5 in this game, you would be more cautious taking Pit so they put 10 on it and make you feel like this is going to be a blowout so take the favorite. Not me I like Uconn +10 in a close game tonight. GL
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  27. 10-26-11 06:02 PM #27
    ronzer
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    after Monday and Tuesday's game i am having a hard time deciding. i think i am over thinking it. Leaning teaser uconn/under
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  28. 10-26-11 06:08 PM #28
    spargament
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    3 Team 9 pt Tease
    Under 51
    Pitt-1
    Bowling Green +5.5
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  29. 10-26-11 06:53 PM #29
    cutlerfan
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    Counting on that Pitt defense. Took 1q under (7.5), 1h under (21.5), game under (43) and Uconn TT under (16). Good luck all!!!
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  30. 10-26-11 10:13 PM #30
    Machine Choice
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    GAME OVER

    Machine Choice: 26-15
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  31. 10-26-11 10:20 PM #31
    SugarDaddy
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    Nice call Machine
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  32. 10-26-11 10:24 PM #32
    Machine Choice
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    Well, the Machine Choice had to roll solo on this one!

    Even my normal backers were quiet as church mice on this one. People questioning my judgment. That's alright, boys.

    I'll see you all tomorrow for some more football.
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  33. 10-26-11 10:25 PM #33
    jimmy007oc
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    Nice pick, I did tail your play like I always did
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  34. 10-26-11 10:32 PM #34
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmy007oc View Post
    Nice pick, I did tail your play like I always did
    Glad you cashed. But honestly, you didn't need my help to pick this one. Pitt easily covered even with their star out. That should tell you something.
    Last edited by Machine Choice; 10-26-11 at 10:36 PM.
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  35. 10-26-11 10:45 PM #35
    sportcap
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    thanks for the great write up - convinced me in taking pitt!
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