[sovann80]

i've already place my bet and got -26.5, try to convince me this is the correct play. just like most egos need a little stroking to feel better about themselves, i need a little reassurance or at-least try to make a case on why this is not a good play. any thoughts from someone who's more season in betting since i'm fairly new to it and this site is appreciated, positive or negative.

1. houston qb case keenum is a stud 25 TD's to 2 Int's
2. houston beat marshall by 30 plus and marshall beat rice this season
3. case keenum didn't play last year against rice, in which rice won barely at home
4. it's a thursday night game with national t.v. coverage at home, i see a repeat of Arizona vs UCLA

[TroyGreen]

#2 can be failed logic sometimes. Sometimes it can be the main reason as to why the pick had the best chance of happening also. I will say that if you didn't see the Rice Marshall or Houston Marshall game you should research as to exactly how the game went down. Say, did Rice fumble 3 punts within their own 20 or you look at the box score and there are different names than usual starters. Also where the game was played, styles of play favor one team say (hypothetical) Rice is a good running team and Marshall has a good run D and Houston has a weak run D and good pass D and Marshall is a good passing team. Just like boxing football or most sports, "styles make fights".

Hope that helps. My first thought without looking I thought that Rice played Miss St this season and played them close if im not mistaken (correct me if im wrong). That was my first and only thought on the game so far.

Hope it works out for you. Houston is a good offense with the ability to put up points quickly.

Since you bring up Arizona, UCLA. Were there any major injuries (UCLA) on either team that made you say "Hey, these guys are hurt"? Especially on the Rice side?

[jds07v]

All are relevant except point #2. Transitive property does not work.

I am much more tempted to take the Houston Team Total Over. While Houston's D is pretty pathetic, I don't like to trust huge underdogs to put up a certain # of points to help the over. I think no matter what the outcome, you will see Houston rack up 45+pts, which depending on the total, should be good for the TT

[spladle08]

Early Lean for Thursday
Thursday: Rice vs Houston: OVER (anything under 70)
Rice (22.3 / 32.6) 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-5 O/U
Houston (49.3 / 23.4) 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U
Obviously a person should lean Houston ATS but @ -27 this requires some research.
Houston’s offense averages 606 yards, while Rice averages about half of that (326 yards) wow.
Houston also has the better defense, allowing ~64 yards less per game. Houston should murder them, as you have the top offense vs one of the worst defenses, but in the past it has been relatively close and though I can’t see Rice winning, they haven’t lost by 27+ all year, and they have played decent offenses @ Texas and Baylor, and vs Tulsa. Marshall was a common opponent and a week after they defeated Rice; they lost to Houston 63-28 so yeah… Anyways the last few years look like this:
2010/10/16 Houston 31 - Rice 34
2009/11/28 Houston 73 - Rice 14
2008/11/29 Houston 42 - Rice 56
2007/10/13 Houston 56 - Rice 48
2006/09/02 Houston 31 - Rice 30

I know the O/U is a wash with a combined: 7-7 O/U but you can’t argue the potential for a huge game from Houston. They haven’t scored under 35 all year and scored at least 48 or more in 5 of 7 games (including, 56 vs. ECU and 63 vs. Marshall in their last 2 outings). Rice has scored 20+ in every game but the opener against Texas, and though the Houston Defense is improved, I don’t see them keeping Rice out of the end-zone. For any less than 3 TD’s
My play for this game will be OVER (anything under 70)

[TroyGreen]

I looked and was wrong about Miss St. They played Southern Miss and it wasn't that close. Southern Miss pulled away from them at the half.

[TroyGreen]

Just to show you something sovann80. I clicked on Rice and saw the Southern Miss score and caught the South Miss record. I was impressed with the 6-1 record but noticed the 26-20 loss to Marshall. Then I went one level deeper and checked the box score and Southern Miss had 6 turnovers to Marshalls 2. Now that may or may not be the sole reason that Southern Miss lost but its more information to work with. Just taking the score without the supporting relevant data would lead me to believe that Houston would kill Southern Miss when other data might say that it will be a good game.

Hope that helps.

[sovann80]

thanks guys much appreciated. i've already got the -26.5 on houston and i'm gonna just wish for the best. i will probably make a similar bet on the over (if it's under 70) to counter-balance my bet and hope it works out for a nice pay day or a huge pay day.

[Thunders77]

Rice has disappointed this year as they have 18 returning starters {including all 5 O-linemen**.
I could see them putting up a big effort, as they won outright last year.

[sovann80]

anyone else betting on this game?

[BigdaddyQH]

This is one of those Rivalry games. Houston is looking to run the table. Rice is looking for anything. There is no reason why Houston should not win easily, but I will pass.

[sovann80]

Lol thanks for the insights, i might play the over hard to fade my 26.5 just in case but we'll see. everyone is making good points and looking at the last 5 games between them; 26.5 isn't looking to great anymore, but the last houston home game vs rice was a 73-14 blow-out affair. let's hope history repeats itself on this one.